Diel streamflow cycles suggest more sensitive snowmelt-driven streamflow to climate change than land surface modeling

Climate warming may cause mountain snowpacks to melt earlier, reducing summer streamflow and threatening water supplies and ecosystems. Few observations allow separating rain and snowmelt contributions to streamflow, so physically based models are needed for hydrological predictions and analyses. We develop an observational technique for detecting streamflow responses to snowmelt using incoming solar radiation and diel (daily) cycles of streamflow. We measure the 20th percentile of snowmelt days (DOS20), across 31 watersheds in the western US, as a proxy for the beginning of snowmelt-initiated streamflow. Historic DOS20 varies from mid-January to late May, with warmer sites having earlier and more intermittent snowmelt-mediated streamflow. Mean annual DOS20 strongly correlates with the dates of 25 % and 50 % annual streamflow volume (DOQ25 and DOQ50, both R2 = 0.85), suggesting that a one-day earlier DOS20 corresponds with a one-day earlier DOQ25 and 0.7-day earlier DOQ50. Empirical projections of future DOS20 (RCP8.5, late 21st century), using space-for-time substitution, show that DOS20 will occur 11 ± 4 days earlier per 1 °C of warming, and that colder places (mean November–February air temperature, TNDJF <−8 °C) are 70 % more sensitive to climate change on average than warmer places (TNDJF > 0 °C). Moreover, empirical space-for-time based projections of DOQ25 and DOQ50 are about four and two times more sensitive to earlier streamflow than those from NoahMP-WRF. Given the importance of changing streamflow timing for headwater resources, snowmelt detection methods such as DOS20 based on diel streamflow cycles may constrain hydrological models and improve hydrological predictions.

The Importance of Subsurface Processes in Land Surface Modeling over a Temperate Region: An Analysis with SMAP, Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing and Triple Collocation Analysis

Land surface models (LSMs) simulate water and energy cycles at the atmosphere–soil interface, however, the physical processes in the subsurface are typically oversimplified and lateral water movement is neglected. Here, a cross-evaluation of land surface model results (with and without lateral flow processes), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) mission soil moisture product, and cosmic-ray neutron sensor (CRNS) measurements is carried out over a temperate climate region with cropland and forests over western Germany. Besides a traditional land surface model (the Community Land Model (CLM) version 3.5), a coupled land surface-subsurface model (CLM-ParFlow) is applied. Compared to CLM stand-alone simulations, the coupled CLM-ParFlow model considered both vertical and lateral water movement. In addition to standard validation metrics, a triple collocation (TC) analysis has been performed to help understanding the random error variances of different soil moisture datasets. In this study, it is found that the three soil moisture datasets are consistent. The coupled and uncoupled model simulations were evaluated at CRNS sites and the coupled model simulations showed less bias than the CLM-standalone model (−0.02 cm3 cm−3 vs. 0.07 cm3 cm−3), similar random errors, but a slightly smaller correlation with the measurements (0.67 vs. 0.71). The TC-analysis showed that CLM-ParFlow reproduced better soil moisture dynamics than CLM stand alone and with a higher signal-to-noise ratio. This suggests that the representation of subsurface physics is of major importance in land surface modeling and that coupled land surface-subsurface modeling is of high interest.