Doors and corners of variance partitioning in statistical ecology

Variance partitioning is a common tool for statistical analysis and interpretation in both observational and experimental studies in ecology. Its popularity has led to a proliferation of methods with sometimes confusing or contradicting interpretations. Here, we present variance partitioning as a general tool in a model based Bayesian framework for summarizing and interpreting regression-like models. To demonstrate our approach we present a case study comprising of a simple occupancy model for a metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly. We pay special attention to the thorny issue of correlated covariates and random effects, and highlight uncertainty in variance partitioning. We recommend several alternative measures of variance, which jointly can be used to better interpret variance partitions. Additionally, we extend the general approach to encompass partitioning of variance within and between groups of observations, an approach very similar to analysis of variance. While noting that many troublesome issues relating to variance partitioning, such as uncertainty quantification, have been neglected in the literature, we likewise feel that the rather general applicability of the methods as an extension of statistical model-based analyses has not been fully utilized by the ecological research community either.

Upscaling human activity data: A statistical ecology approach

Big data require new techniques to handle the information they come with. Here we consider four datasets (email communication, Twitter posts, Wikipedia articles and Gutenberg books) and propose a novel statistical framework to predict global statistics from random samples. More precisely, we infer the number of senders, hashtags and words of the whole dataset and how their abundances (i.e. the popularity of a hashtag) change through scales from a small sample of sent emails per sender, posts per hashtag and word occurrences. Our approach is grounded on statistical ecology as we map inference of human activities into the unseen species problem in biodiversity. Our findings may have applications to resource management in emails, collective attention monitoring in Twitter and language learning process in word databases.

Regression Models, Fantastic Beasts, and Where to Find Them: A Simple Tutorial for Ecologists Using R

Regression modeling is a workhorse of statistical ecology that allows to find relationships between a response variable and a set of explanatory variables. Despite being one of the fundamental statistical ideas in ecological curricula, regression modeling can be complex and subtle. This paper is intended as an applied protocol to help students understand the data, select the most appropriate models, verify assumptions, and interpret the output. Basic ecological questions are tackled using data from a fictional series, “ Fantastic beasts and where to find them,” with the aim to show how statistical thinking can foster curiosity, creativity and imagination in ecology, from the formulation of hypotheses to the interpretation of results.

Molecular Heterogeneity in Large-Scale Biological Data: Techniques and Applications

High-throughput sequencing technologies have evolved at a stellar pace for almost a decade and have greatly advanced our understanding of genome biology. In these sampling-based technologies, there is an important detail that is often overlooked in the analysis of the data and the design of the experiments, specifically that the sampled observations often do not give a representative picture of the underlying population. This has long been recognized as a problem in statistical ecology and in the broader statistics literature. In this review, we discuss the connections between these fields, methodological advances that parallel both the needs and opportunities of large-scale data analysis, and specific applications in modern biology. In the process we describe unique aspects of applying these approaches to sequencing technologies, including sequencing error, population and individual heterogeneity, and the design of experiments.

State of the Art in Computational Bioacoustics and Machine Learning: How far have we come?

Terrestrial bioacoustics, like many other domains, has recently witnessed some transformative results from the application of deep learning and big data (Stowell 2017, Mac Aodha et al. 2018, Fairbrass et al. 2018, Mercado III and Sturdy 2017). Generalising over specific projects, which bioacoustic tasks can we consider "solved"? What can we expect in the near future, and what remains hard to do? What does a bioacoustician need to understand about deep learning? This contribution will address these questions, giving the audience a concise summary of recent developments and ways forward. It builds on recent projects and evaluation campaigns led by the author (Stowell et al. 2015, Stowell et al. 2018), as well as broader developments in signal processing, machine learning and bioacoustic applications of these. We will discuss which type of deep learning networks are appropriate for audio data, how to address zoological/ecological applications which often have few available data, and issues in integrating deep learning predictions with existing workflows in statistical ecology.

Statistical ecology comes of age

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.