Analysis and Prediction of Land Resources’ Carrying Capacity in 31 Provinces of China from 2008 to 2016

The rapid development of urbanization, population growth, and unreasonable use of land resources have made the contradiction between human beings and land increasingly prominent, and the carrying capacity of land resources has become an important factor affecting the sustainable development of a city or even a country. Based on the carrying capacity of agricultural land, construction land, and ecological land in 31 provinces of China, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the carrying capacity of land resources in 31 provinces of China from 2008 to 2016 by using single-factor carrying capacity evaluation and comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation methods. The evaluation results were divided into six levels (No pressure, Lower pressure, Low pressure, Medium pressure, High pressure, Higher pressure), and the ArcGIS10.2 software was used for visualization, and the carrying capacity prediction model was constructed to predict the development trend of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in 2020 and 2025. The results showed that China’s land carrying capacity is extremely unbalanced. Whether from the evaluation results of single-factor carrying capacity or comprehensive carrying capacity, we showed the characteristics of high pressure in the east and low pressure in the west, and that the regional land resources have a deteriorating trend. Through the prediction of the future land resource carrying capacity index, it was found that the comprehensive carrying capacity index of land resources in 31 provinces of China will still show an upward trend in the future.

Evaluation of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration

Land comprehensive carrying capacity (LCCC) reflects the limits of urban development that the land ground in the spatial area can bear under the constraints of society, economy, resources, and environment. An accurate and objective evaluation of LCCC is of great significance to the rational planning of urban space. Using the entropy method to obtain the weights of evaluation indexes, this study constructed an index system composed of four subsystems, i.e., urban construction (UC), social economy (SE), industry development (ID), and urban ecology (UE). Furthermore, calculating the index of 11 cities for the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration (HCUA) to analyze the influence of LCCC from diverse dimensions for the period 2004–2015. Lastly, the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics between the neighboring units of LCCC were visualized through global and local spatial analysis. The results infer some novel findings as follows. (1) The overall tendency of the LCCC of the HCUA has gradually increased over the time window with the coordination of each subsystem. The urban ecological subsystem shows the highest rate of contribution and the social economy subsystem has the largest increase. Urban construction and industry development have a lower number of hot spot cities and lower clustering characteristics than social economy and urban ecology. (2) The core cities of the HCUA, Changchun and Harbin, demonstrate the reverse trend from 2010 to 2015, which reveals the states of excellent and good carrying capacity, respectively. In contrast, four cities are at the inferior state, and three cities are poor. Prioritizing the promotion of the industry development subsystem should be considered for these seven cities. (3) There is some spatial variation of LCCC in the HCUA, which shows the characteristic of “gradually decreasing from the core city to the surrounding area”. Changchun and Jilin are high–high clustering areas that drive Siping from a cold spot to a hot spot. Focusing on the development of secondary growth pole cities, Jilin and Songyuan are forming complementary and mutual reinforcement with the core cities, which has a positive significance in promoting the sustainable development of the regional space of urban agglomeration.

Comparative analysis on calculation methods of carrying capacity of Logistics Park in Wuhan

Logistics resources will be concentrated in the same space by logistics park, to provide intensive logistics services and enhance the efficiency of logistics, thereby, a large number of logistics parks emerged in China for a period of time, and the park vacancy rate caused by high attention. Logistics Park construction should be matched with the demand. Calculation of logistics park carrying capacity is one of those problems should be solved. This paper uses the analogy method, the standard reference method and the space-time consumption method to calculate the comprehensive carrying capacity of “one port, six parks”, which is planned in Wuhan. The results show that although the space-time consumption method is more complicated than the other two, but its calculation results can better reflect the carrying capacity of Logistics Park.