Reframing Risk in the Wake of COVID-19

Concerns about infectious disease in mega-shelters following hurricanes should be a top priority. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the challenge of implementing standard evacuation and sheltering procedures for hurricanes during an outbreak of a respiratory disease and the lessons learned from the 2020 hurricane season must be applied to future response efforts. In this article, we examine the current risk framing for hurricane preparedness and response utilizing Prospect Theory. We also examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has complicated this traditional framing and offer a new framework for which to provide adequate sheltering following a hurricane, while minimizing the risk of respiratory disease to those seeking shelter. We argue that such a framework is necessary to protect American citizens in future hurricane seasons.

Public Attribution of Responsibility for Disaster Preparedness across Three Levels of Government and the Public: Lessons from a Survey of Residents of the U.S. South Atlantic and Gulf Coast

Using survey data collected from residents of counties along the South Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States, we use innovative compositional data analysis techniques to examine individuals’ assignment of responsibility for hurricane preparedness across federal, state, and local officials as well as among household residents and their community. We find that the public assigns limited responsibility for hurricane preparedness to governments. Rather, respondents, especially conservatives and those with low trust in government, view individuals themselves as responsible for preparedness. Our results emphasize the role of ideology and the individualistic culture of American politics. These results also have implications for scholars who study individual attribution responsibility in multi-level systems and who may assume that individuals will assign responsibility to one of the various levels of government; however, focusing on disaster preparation in particular, our study shows that a significant number of individuals may not assign responsibility to government at any level.

An Eye on COVID: Hurricane Preparedness at a COVID-19 Alternative Care Site

ABSTRACT Background: In March 2020, the Louisiana Department of Health activated the Medical Monitoring Station (MMS) in downtown New Orleans. This alternative care site is designed to decompress hospitals and nursing homes overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Given the city’s historic vulnerability to hurricanes, planning for possible tropical weather events has been a priority for MMS leadership. Methods: The planning process incorporated input from all sectors/agencies working at the facility, to ensure consistency and cohesion. The MMS Shelter-in-Place Plan (MSIPP) was created, and a comprehensive tabletop exercise was conducted. Results: Six planning topics emerged as a result of the planning process and were used to create a comprehensive plan for sheltering-in-place. These topics address hurricane preparedness for patient care, interfacility coordination, wrap-around services, medical logistics, essential staffing, and incident command during a shelter-in-place scenario. Conclusions: The MSIPP created by the MMS helped to maximize patient safety and continuity of operations during a real-world event. Select pieces of the plan were activated to meet the needs and threat level of Tropical Storm Cristobal. This experience reinforced the need for originality, scalability, and flexibility in building emergency operations plans in the midst of an unprecedented pandemic.

Hurricane Preparedness and Response Along Florida's Central-East Coast: Indian River Mosquito Control District's Experiences Over the Years

ABSTRACT The hurricane is no stranger to longtime residents of Florida's east coast. In 1979, after about 15 years of local inactivity, Hurricane David made landfall in West Palm Beach. Thirteen years later and 100 miles south, category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic damage when it hit the city of Homestead in the Miami-Dade area. In 2004, the counties along the east coast of central Florida were hit by 2 devastating hurricanes, Frances and Jeanne, that made landfall at Sewall's Point just 20 days apart. The very next year, Hurricane Wilma made landfall near Everglades City as a Category 3 storm. After a decade of relief, a glancing blow from Hurricane Matthew struck in 2016, only to be followed by the extremely devastating Hurricane Irma just 1 year later. Each of these hurricanes caused significant property damage and mosquito problems for the Florida residents affected by these storms. In 1997, the Indian River Mosquito Control District (IRMCD) developed a hurricane preparedness plan outlining the appropriate action to be taken depending on the severity of the approaching storm. The IRMCD has also learned to negotiate the intricacies of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's reimbursement program, thus reducing the financial impact to the District. This paper provides an overview of how IRMCD has prepared, reacted, and followed-up with the seemingly constant parade of hurricanes that have threatened and affected the east coast over time.

OMuLeT: Online Multi-Lead Time Location Prediction for Hurricane Trajectory Forecasting

Hurricanes are powerful tropical cyclones with sustained wind speeds ranging from at least 74 mph (for category 1 storms) to more than 157 mph (for category 5 storms). Accurate prediction of the storm tracks is essential for hurricane preparedness and mitigation of storm impacts. In this paper, we cast the hurricane trajectory forecasting task as an online multi-lead time location prediction problem and present a framework called OMuLeT to improve path prediction by combining the 6-hourly and 12-hourly forecasts generated from an ensemble of dynamical (physical) hurricane models. OMuLeT employs an online learning with restart strategy to incrementally update the weights of the ensemble model combination as new observation data become available. It can also handle the varying dynamical models available for predicting the trajectories of different hurricanes. Experimental results using the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane data showed that OMuLeT significantly outperforms various baseline methods, including the official forecasts produced by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), by more than 10% in terms of its 48-hour lead time forecasts.

Hurricane Preparedness for Forage Crops in the Southeast United States

This 4-page document provides information on preparing forage crops, conserved forage, and grazing areas for potential hurricane damage and alleviating hurricane damage on forage crops and grazing lands in the Southeast United States, with an emphasis on the Florida peninsula and Gulf Coast. Written by José C. B. Dubeux, Jr. and Edward K. Twidwell, and published by the UF/IFAS Agronomy Department, November 2019. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/ag439

THE ROLE OF COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT IN HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS AS PERCEIVED BY ASSISTED LIVING ADMINISTRATORS

The importance of communities in disasters has been well established since Hurricane Katrina. Smit and Wandel’s bottom-up approach to assess risks during a disaster involves community stakeholders. Administrators of assisted living (AL) environments increasingly have to assess the risks of hurricane evacuation for vulnerable older adults. The current study examines intersections between social networks, communication and preparedness during a hurricane for AL administrators. We conducted focus groups and interviews with AL administrators (N=60) in Florida about communication patterns with community associations, emergency management officials, AL staff, residents and their families during Hurricane Irma (2017) and about their perceptions of preparedness. A content analysis approach was used. Atlas.ti v7 was used for initial and axial coding. Co-occurrences were found among communication and preparedness themes. Some prevalent themes included “social capital”, “high versus low tech strategies” and “leadership effectiveness”. Themes intersected with individual administrator and AL organizational characteristics.