Politicians Avoid Tax Increases Around Elections

We use new annual data on gasoline taxes and corporate income taxes from U.S. states to analyze whether politicians avoid tax increases in election years. These data contain 3 useful attributes: (1) when state politicians enact tax laws, (2) when state politicians implement tax laws on consumers and firms, and (3) the size of tax changes. Using a pre-analysis research plan that includes regressions of tax rate changes and tax enactment years on time-to-gubernatorial election year indicators, we find that elections decrease the probability of politicians enacting increases in taxes and reduce the size of implemented tax changes relative to non-election years. We find some evidence that politicians are most likely to enact tax increases right after an election. These election effects are stronger for gasoline taxes than for corporate income taxes and depend on no other political, demographic, or macroeconomic conditions. Supplemental analysis supports political salience over legislative effort in generating this difference in electoral effects.

Assessing the economic and social impacts of fiscal policies

PurposeThis study is the first attempt to analyze the effectiveness of recent two major tax policies, the reductions in personal and corporate income taxes and a rise in indirect tax and their combine, under both balanced and unbalanced budget conditions, on the economy and social aspects of Malaysia.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of all simulation scenarios on the key macro and micro indicators. Further, based on the 2012 Malaysia Household Income and Expenditure Survey, it uses a micro-data with a significant number of households (over 56,000 individuals) to analyze the impacts of tax policies on poverty and income inequality of Malaysian.FindingsSimulation results show that, under the balanced budget condition, personal and corporate income tax reductions increase economic growth, household consumption, and investment, while the rise in indirect tax has adverse impacts on these variables. However, in the unbalanced budget condition, all tax policies, except indirect tax policy, reduce real GDP and investment in the economy and the indirect tax policy has insignificant impacts on all indicators. All policy reforms reallocate resources, especially labor, in the economy. In both budget conditions, the reductions in corporate and personal income taxes, particularly the corporate income tax, decrease poverty level of Malaysian households. Results also indicate that both tax policies are unable to influence income inequality in Malaysia.Social implicationsThis study recommends that the government can increase its revenue by increasing indirect taxes as it does not have any impact on household welfare. In order to increase government revenues, initial increases in personal and corporate income taxes are suggested as they may have small negative impacts on the economy and welfare of households.Originality/valueOne of the significant features of this paper is that it examines both expansionary and contractionary fiscal policies in a country that government budget depends on oil exports. Since the literature on this subject is limited, particularly in the Malaysian context, the authors used Malaysia as a case to show how tax reform policies affect the economy and poverty level of such countries. Distinguishing the Malaysian households into 10 deciles and analyzing the distributional impacts of tax policies on these categories are the most significant contributions of this study.

Analiza i ocena regulacji uszczelniających system opodatkowania dochodów przedsiębiorców w Polsce w latach 2015–2019

The article looks at the legal solutions adopted in 2015–2019 in Poland in order to tighten the tax system. In the field of income taxes, these were anti-abusive regulations, securing the tax system in a general way, as well as targeting specific tax avoidance schemes. The first part of the article discusses the factors deter­mining fiscal efficiency which is the main criterion adopted in the study. In the next part the most important tax solutions sealing the system are presented. In the third part an attempt was made, using a number of indicators, to answer the question whether the observed increase in tax revenues from corporate income taxes can be attributed to the anti-abusive measures which were taken. Based on the conducted research, it has been shown that the decreasing tax gap is the result of the improvement in tax collection effectiveness in connection with the adopted sealing measures.

Can Corporate Income Tax Cuts Stimulate Innovation?

We hypothesize that corporate income taxes distort firms’ incentives to innovate by reducing their pledgeable income. Using a differences-in-differences methodology, we document that large corporate income tax cuts boost corporate innovation. We find a similar but opposite effect for tax increases. Most of the change in innovation occurs 2 or more years after the tax change, and there’s no effect before the tax change. Exploring the mechanisms, we show that tax cuts have a stronger impact on innovation for firms with weaker governance, greater financial constraints, fewer tangible assets, smaller patent stock, and a greater degree of tax avoidance.