Reliability of self-rated experience and confidence as predictors for students’ performance in software engineering

Students’ experience is used in empirical software engineering research as well as in software engineering education to group students in either homogeneous or heterogeneous groups. To do so, students are commonly asked to self-rate their experience, as self-rated experience has been shown to be a good predictor for performance in programming tasks. Another experience-related measurement is participants’ confidence (i.e., how confident is the person that their given answer is correct). Hence, self-rated experience and confidence are used as selector or control variables throughout empirical software engineering research and software engineering education. In this paper, we analyze data from several student experiments conducted in the past years to investigate whether self-rated experience and confidence are also good predictors for students’ performance in model comprehension tasks. Our results show that while students can somewhat assess the correctness of a particular answer to one concrete question regarding a conceptual model (i.e., their confidence), their overall self-rated experience does not correlate with their actual performance. Hence, the use of the commonly used measurement of self-rated experience as a selector or control variable must be considered unreliable for model comprehension tasks.