Investigation of stock price network based on time series analysis and complex network

Complex network is now widely used in a series of disciplines such as biology, physics, mathematics, sociology and so on. In this paper, we construct the stock price trend network based on the knowledge of complex network, and then propose a method based on information entropy to divide the stock network into some communities, that is, a gathering study of stock price trend. We construct time series networks for each stock in Chinese A-share market based on time series network model, and then use these networks to divide the stock market into communities. We find that the average trend of stocks in the same community is the same as the trend of market value weighting, but the average trend of stocks in different communities is quite different and the sequence correlation is low. This conclusion shows that stocks in the same community share the same price trend, while the stock trend in different communities varies. This paper is a successful application of complex network and information entropy in stock trend analysis, which mainly includes two contributions. First, the success of the visibility graph algorithm provides a new perspective for enriching stock price trend modeling. Second, our conclusion proves that the clustering based on information entropy theory is effective, which provides a new method for further research on stock price trend, portfolio construction and stock return prediction.

Stock Return Prediction using Machine Learning-Based Techniques

The paper attempts to forecast the intraday return of HNX index by using 3 machine learning models: Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extra-Trees Classifier. Kernel principal component analysis is used for feature extraction and dimension reduction. The prediction performance is compared to the classic Logistic Regression’s. Our empirical results show that Extra-Trees Classifier has the highest prediction accuracy of about 55% which outperforms Logistic Regression by about 0.6%. Although both Extra-Trees Classifier and Random Forest (RF) are based on the same approach, the former always obtains better prediction performance. Besides, while not providing the optimal results, Support Vector Machine seems not to depend on the number of features and training length.

Prediction of Stock Returns: Sum-of-the-Parts Method and Economic Constraint Method

Forecasting stock market returns has great significance to asset allocation, risk management, and asset pricing, but stock return prediction is notoriously difficult. In this paper, we combine the sum-of-the-parts (SOP) method and three kinds of economic constraint methods: non-negative economic constraint strategy, momentum of return prediction strategy, and three-sigma strategy to improve prediction performance of stock returns, in which the price-earnings ratio growth rate (gm) is predicted by economic constraint methods. Empirical results suggest that the stock return forecasts by proposed models are both statistically and economically significant. The predictions of proposed models are robust to various robustness tests.

OUT-OF-SAMPLE STOCK RETURN PREDICTION USING HIGHER-ORDER MOMENTS

We analyze variance, skewness and kurtosis risk premia and their option-implied and realized components as predictors of excess market returns and of the cross-section of stock returns. We find that the variance risk premium is the only moment-based variable to predict S&P 500 index excess returns, with a monthly out-of-sample [Formula: see text] above 6% for the period between 2001 and 2014. Nonetheless, all aggregate moment-based variables are effective in predicting the cross-section of stock returns. Self-financed portfolios long on the stocks least exposed to the aggregate moment-based variable and short on the stocks most exposed to it achieve positive and significant Carhart 4-factor alphas and a considerably higher Sharpe ratio than the S&P 500 index, with positive skewness.