An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

One Atmosphere

There can be no clearer illustration of the need for human beings to act globally than the issues raised by the impact of human activity on our atmosphere. That we all share the same planet came to our attention in a particularly pressing way in the 1970s when scientists discovered that the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) threatens the ozone layer shielding the surface of our planet from the full force of the sun's ultraviolet radiation. Damage to that protective shield would cause cancer rates to rise sharply and could have other effects, for example, on the growth of algae. The threat was especially acute to the world's southernmost cities, since a large hole in the ozone was found to be opening up each year over Antarctica, but in the long term, the entire ozone shield was imperiled. Once the science was accepted, concerted international action followed relatively rapidly with the signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1985. The developed countries phased out virtually all use of CFCs by 1999, and the developing countries, given a 10-year period of grace, are now moving toward the same goal. Getting rid of CFCs has turned out to be just the curtain raiser: the main event is climate change, or global warming. Without belittling the pioneering achievement of those who brought about the Montreal Protocol, the problem was not so difficult, for CFCs can be replaced in all their uses at relatively little cost, and the solution to the problem is simply to stop producing them. Climate change is a very different matter. The scientific evidence that human activities are changing the climate of our planet has been studied by a working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international scientific body intended to provide policy makers with an authoritative view of climate change and its causes. The group released its Third Assessment Report in 2001, building on earlier reports and incorporating new evidence accumulated over the previous five years. The report is the work of 122 lead authors and 515 contributing authors, and the research on which it was based was reviewed by 337 experts.

The IPCC and Antarctica

How well is the scientific community doing on providing policy makers with evidence for climate change and predictions for its future trends? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is one of the flagships of international scientific collaboration. Every five years, IPCC Working Group 1 compiles the state of the art in the science of climate change. The Third Assessment Report was presented in 2001, and writing of the Fourth Assessment Report began in the autumn of 2004. External, invited experts reviewed the initial draft last May and the final report will be made available to governments and public in late 2006. In September 2005 the first draft will even be published on the Internet for an eight-week external review period by anyone interested.

Development of a method for assessing flood vulnerability

Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes.

Cryosphere

The cryosphere refers to the Earth’s frozen realm. As such, it includes the 10 percent of the terrestrial surface covered by ice sheets and glaciers, an additional 14 percent characterized by permafrost and/or periglacial processes, and those regions affected by ephemeral and permanent snow cover and sea ice. Although glaciers and permafrost are confined to high latitudes or altitudes, areas seasonally affected by snow cover and sea ice occupy a large portion of Earth’s surface area and have strong spatiotemporal characteristics. Considerable scientific attention has focused on the cryosphere in the past decade. Results from 2 ×CO2 General Circulation Models (GCMs) consistently predict enhanced warming at high latitudes, especially over land (Fitzharris 1996). Since a large volume of ground and surface ice is currently within several degrees of its melting temperature, the cryospheric system is particularly vulnerable to the effects of regional warming. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is strong evidence of Arctic air temperature warming over land by as much as 5 °C during the past century (Anisimov et al. 2001). Further, sea-ice extent and thickness has recently decreased, permafrost has generally warmed, spring snow extent over Eurasia has been reduced, and there has been a general warming trend in the Antarctic (e.g. Serreze et al. 2000). Most climate models project a sustained warming and increase in precipitation in these regions over the twenty-first century. Projected impacts include melting of ice sheets and glaciers with consequent increase in sea level, possible collapse of the Antarctic ice shelves, substantial loss of Arctic Ocean sea ice, and thawing of permafrost terrain. Such rapid responses would likely have a substantial impact on marine and terrestrial biota, with attendant disruption of indigenous human communities and infrastructure. Further, such changes can trigger positive feedback effects that influence global climate. For example, melting of organic-rich permafrost and widespread decomposition of peatlands might enhance CO2 and CH4 efflux to the atmosphere. Cryospheric researchers are therefore involved in monitoring and documenting changes in an effort to separate the natural variability from that induced or enhanced by human activity.

Water and Climate – The IPCC TAR Perspective

The aim of the present contribution, opening a session on climate change and hydrology at the 2002 Nordic Hydrological Conference in Røros, Norway, is to discuss essential water-related findings of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with particular reference to region-specific issues of the Nordic region. Discussion of impacts of climate variability and change embraces both already observed effects and projections for the future. After review of changes in hydrological processes, climate-related impacts on extreme hydrological events – floods and droughts – are outlined. Finally, adaptation and vulnerability are dealt with, including presentation of key water-related regional concerns in various parts of the World.

Sensitivity studies of oxidative changes in the troposphere in 2100 using the GISS GCM

We examine the relative importance of chemical precursor emissions affecting ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (OH) for the year 2100. Runs were developed from the Comparison of Tropospheric Oxidants (Ox_Comp) modeling workshop year 2100 A2p emissions scenario, part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) third assessment report (TAR). While TAR examined only cumulative change, we examine individual components (NOx, CH4, CO, etc.). Also, since there will be climate changes in 2100 (not accounted for by TAR), we investigate the effect of changing our fixed SSTs/ocean ice from present day to 2100 conditions, as projected by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model with doubled CO2. Unlike TAR we perform multiannual integrations and we include interactive lightning. Largest changes arose from the run with 2100 industrial NOx (O3=+16.9%, OH=+29.4% in July) and the run with 2100 methane (O3=+17.4%, OH= -19.1% in July). In the latter run, large ozone increases in the NH upper troposphere appeared to repartition HO2 into OH to such an extent that the lowering in OH associated with increased methane was overwhelmed in that region. Incorporating all changes collectively led to the July tropospheric ozone burden increasing from 426 to 601 Tg (+41.1%) and the July OH concentration increasing from 13.6 to 15.2x105 molecules/cm3 (+11.8%).