A phylodynamic workflow to rapidly gain insights into the dispersal history and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented number of genomic sequences of the causative virus (SARS-CoV-2) have been generated and shared with the scientific community. The unparalleled volume of available genetic data presents a unique opportunity to gain real-time insights into the virus transmission during the pandemic, but also a daunting computational hurdle if analysed with gold-standard phylogeographic approaches. We here describe and apply an analytical pipeline that is a compromise between fast and rigorous analytical steps. As a proof of concept, we focus on the Belgium epidemic, with one of the highest spatial density of available SARS-CoV-2 genomes. At the global scale, our analyses confirm the importance of external introduction events in establishing multiple transmission chains in the country. At the country scale, our spatially-explicit phylogeographic analyses highlight that the national lockdown had a relatively low impact on both the lineage dispersal velocity and the long-distance dispersal events within Belgium. Our pipeline has the potential to be quickly applied to other countries or regions, with key benefits in complementing epidemiological analyses in assessing the impact of intervention measures or their progressive easement.

On the importance of negative controls in viral landscape phylogeography

Phylogeographic reconstructions are becoming an established procedure to evaluate the factors that could impact virus spread. While a discrete phylogeographic approach can be used to test predictors of transition rates among discrete locations, alternative continuous phylogeographic reconstructions can also be exploited to investigate the impact of underlying environmental layers on the dispersal velocity of a virus. The two approaches are complementary tools for studying pathogens' spread, but in both cases, care must be taken to avoid misinterpretations. Here, we analyse rice yellow mottle virus (RYMV) sequence data from West and East Africa to illustrate how both approaches can be used to study the impact of environmental factors on the virus’ dispersal frequency and velocity. While it was previously reported that host connectivity was a major determinant of RYMV spread, we show that this was a false positive result due to the lack of appropriate negative controls. We also discuss and compare the phylodynamic tools currently available for investigating the impact of environmental factors on virus spread.

Primary Study on the Model of Dispersal of the Thermobaric Explosive

The experimental and theoretical study on the rapid explosive dispersal process model of a thermobaric explosive has been carried out. Detonation of a thermobaric explosive generates a blast wave followed by a complex supersonic gas-solid fluid, which the additive fuel, aluminum particles, in some cases, might catch up to and penetrate the leading shock front. The developing history of the explosive fireball is analyzed and the complex physical mechanisms are primarily determined, and the influence of the critical parameters such as the mass ratio of explosive and fuels and the fuel properties to dispersal radius and maximum dispersal velocity are estimated. The theoretical expression of maximum dispersal velocity of solid aluminum fuels was deduced and the mathematic expression of explosive dispersal radius with time was deduced. Overall, an excellent agreement is reached between the experimental and theoretical model results.