Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of beneficial alleles using ancient genomes

Ancient genome sequencing technologies now provide the opportunity to study natural selection in unprecedented detail. Rather than making inferences from indirect footprints left by selection in present-day genomes, we can directly observe whether a given allele was present or absent in a particular region of the world at almost any period of human history within the last 10,000 years. Methods for studying selection using ancient genomes often rely on partitioning individuals into discrete time periods or regions of the world. However, a complete understanding of natural selection requires more nuanced statistical methods which can explicitly model allele frequency changes in a continuum across space and time. Here we introduce a method for inferring the spread of a beneficial allele across a landscape using two-dimensional partial differential equations. Unlike previous approaches, our framework can handle time-stamped ancient samples, as well as genotype likelihoods and pseudohaploid sequences from low-coverage genomes. We apply the method to a panel of published ancient West Eurasian genomes, to produce dynamic maps showcasing the inferred spread of candidate beneficial alleles over time and space. We also provide estimates for the strength of selection and diffusion rate for each of these alleles. Finally, we highlight possible avenues of improvement for accurately tracing the spread of beneficial alleles in more complex scenarios.

Gene expression noise can promote the fixation of beneficial mutations in fluctuating environments

Nongenetic phenotypic variation can either speed up or slow down adaptive evolution. We show that it can speed up evolution in environments where available carbon and energy sources change over time. To this end, we use an experimentally validated model of Escherichia coli growth on two alternative carbon sources, glucose and acetate. On the superior carbon source (glucose), all cells achieve high growth rates, while on the inferior carbon source (acetate) only a small fraction of the population manages to initiate growth. Consequently, populations experience a bottleneck when the environment changes from the superior to the inferior carbon source. Growth on the inferior carbon source depends on a circuit under the control of a transcription factor that is repressed in the presence of the superior carbon source. We show that noise in the expression of this transcription factor can increase the probability that cells start growing on the inferior carbon source. In doing so, it can decrease the severity of the bottleneck and increase mean population fitness whenever this fitness is low. A modest amount of noise can also enhance the fitness effects of a beneficial allele that increases the fraction of a population initiating growth on acetate. Additionally, noise can protect this allele from extinction, accelerate its spread, and increase its likelihood of going to fixation. Central to the adaptation-enhancing principle we identify is the ability of noise to mitigate population bottlenecks, particularly in environments that fluctuate periodically. Because such bottlenecks are frequent in fluctuating environments, and because periodically fluctuating environments themselves are common, this principle may apply to a broad range of environments and organisms.

Background Selection Does Not Mimic the Patterns of Genetic Diversity Produced by Selective Sweeps

It is increasingly evident that natural selection plays a prominent role in shaping patterns of diversity across the genome. The most commonly studied modes of natural selection are positive selection and negative selection, which refer to directional selection for and against derived mutations, respectively. Positive selection can result in hitchhiking events, in which a beneficial allele rapidly replaces all others in the population, creating a valley of diversity around the selected site along with characteristic skews in allele frequencies and linkage disequilibrium among linked neutral polymorphisms. Similarly, negative selection reduces variation not only at selected sites but also at linked sites, a phenomenon called background selection (BGS). Thus, discriminating between these two forces may be difficult, and one might expect efforts to detect hitchhiking to produce an excess of false positives in regions affected by BGS. Here, we examine the similarity between BGS and hitchhiking models via simulation. First, we show that BGS may somewhat resemble hitchhiking in simplistic scenarios in which a region constrained by negative selection is flanked by large stretches of unconstrained sites, echoing previous results. However, this scenario does not mirror the actual spatial arrangement of selected sites across the genome. By performing forward simulations under more realistic scenarios of BGS, modeling the locations of protein-coding and conserved noncoding DNA in real genomes, we show that the spatial patterns of variation produced by BGS rarely mimic those of hitchhiking events. Indeed, BGS is not substantially more likely than neutrality to produce false signatures of hitchhiking. This holds for simulations modeled after both humans and Drosophila, and for several different demographic histories. These results demonstrate that appropriately designed scans for hitchhiking need not consider BGS’s impact on false-positive rates. However, we do find evidence that BGS increases the false-negative rate for hitchhiking, an observation that demands further investigation.

Selective Sweeps Under Dominance and Inbreeding

A major research goal in evolutionary genetics is to uncover loci experiencing positive selection. One approach involves finding ‘selective sweeps’ patterns, which can either be ‘hard sweeps’ formed by de novo mutation, or ‘soft sweeps’ arising from recurrent mutation or existing standing variation. Existing theory generally assumes outcrossing populations, and it is unclear how dominance affects soft sweeps. We consider how arbitrary dominance and inbreeding via self-fertilization affect hard and soft sweep signatures. With increased self-fertilization, they are maintained over longer map distances due to reduced effective recombination and faster beneficial allele fixation times. Dominance can affect sweep patterns in outcrossers if the derived variant originates from either a single novel allele, or from recurrent mutation. These models highlight the challenges in distinguishing hard and soft sweeps, and propose methods to differentiate between scenarios.

Background selection does not mimic the patterns of genetic diversity produced by selective sweeps

1AbstractIt is increasingly evident that natural selection plays a prominent role in shaping patterns of diversity across the genome. The most commonly studied modes of natural selection are positive selection and negative selection, which refer to directional selection for and against derived mutations, respectively. Positive selection can result in hitchhiking events, in which a beneficial allele rapidly replaces all others in the population, creating a valley of diversity around the selected site along with characteristic skews in allele frequencies and linkage disequilibrium (LD) among linked neutral polymorphisms. Similarly, negative selection reduces variation not only at selected sites but also at linked sites—a phenomenon called background selection (BGS). Thus, discriminating between these two forces may be difficult, and one might expect efforts to detect hitchhiking to produce an excess of false positives in regions affected by BGS. Here, we examine the similarity between BGS and hitchhiking models via simulation. First, we show that BGS may somewhat resemble hitchhiking in simplistic scenarios in which a region constrained by negative selection is flanked by large stretches of unconstrained sites, echoing previous results. However, this scenario does not mirror the actual spatial arrangement of selected sites across the genome. By performing forward simulations under more realistic scenarios of BGS, modeling the locations of protein-coding and conserved noncoding DNA in real genomes, we show that the spatial patterns of variation produced by BGS rarely mimic those of hitchhiking events. Indeed, BGS is not substantially more likely than neutrality to produce false signatures of hitchhiking. This holds for simulations modeled after both humans and Drosophila, and for several different demographic histories. These results demonstrate that appropriately designed scans for hitchhiking need not consider background selection’s impact on false positive rates. However, we do find evidence that BGS increases the false negative rate for hitchhiking—an observation that demands further investigation.

Mutations that improve the efficiency of a weak-link enzyme are rare compared to adaptive mutations elsewhere in the genome

New enzymes often evolve by amplification and divergence of genes encoding enzymes with a weak ability to provide a new function. Experimental studies to date have followed the evolutionary trajectory of an amplified gene, but have not addressed other mutations in the genome when fitness is limited by an evolving gene. We have adapted Escherichia coli in which an enzyme’s weak secondary activity has been recruited to serve an essential function. While the gene encoding the “weak-link” enzyme amplified in all eight populations, mutations improving the new activity occurred in only one. This beneficial allele quickly swept the amplified array, displacing the parental allele. Most adaptive mutations, however, occurred elsewhere in the genome. We have identified the mechanisms by which three of the classes of mutations increase fitness. These mutations may be detrimental once a new enzyme has evolved, and require reversion or compensation, leading to permanent changes in the genome.

Quantitative characterization of random partitioning in the evolution of plasmid-encoded traits

Plasmids are found across bacteria, archaea, and eukaryotes and play an important role in evolution. Plasmids exist at different copy numbers, the number of copies of the plasmid per cell, ranging from a single plasmid per cell to hundreds of plasmids per cell. This feature of a copy number greater than one can lead to a population of plasmids within a single cell that are not identical clones of one another, but rather have individual mutations that make a given plasmid unique. During cell division, this population of plasmids is partitioned into the two daughter cells, resulting in a random distribution of different plasmid variants in each daughter. In this study, we use stochastic simulations to investigate how random plasmid partitioning compares to a perfect partitioning model. Our simulation results demonstrate that random plasmid partitioning accelerates mutant allele fixation when the allele is beneficial and the selection is in an additive or recessive regime where increasing the copy number of the beneficial allele results in additional benefit for the host. This effect does not depend on the size of the benefit conferred or the mutation rate, but is magnified by increasing plasmid copy number.

Selective sweeps under dominance and inbreeding

A major research goal in evolutionary genetics is to uncover loci experiencing positive selection. One approach involves finding ‘selective sweeps’ patterns, which can either be ‘hard sweeps’ formed by de novo mutation, or ‘soft sweeps’ arising from recurrent mutation or existing standing variation. Existing theory generally assumes outcrossing populations, and it is unclear how dominance affects soft sweeps. We consider how arbitrary dominance and inbreeding via self-fertilisation affect hard and soft sweep signatures. With increased self-fertilisation, they are maintained over longer map distances due to reduced effective recombination and faster beneficial allele fixation times. Dominance can affect sweep patterns in outcrossers if the derived variant originates from either a single novel allele, or from recurrent mutation. These models highlight the challenges in distinguishing hard and soft sweeps, and propose methods to differentiate between scenarios.

Estimating Time to the Common Ancestor for a Beneficial Allele

The haplotypes of a beneficial allele carry information about its history that can shed light on its age and the putative cause for its increase in frequency. Specifically, the signature of an allele’s age is contained in the pattern of variation that mutation and recombination impose on its haplotypic background. We provide a method to exploit this pattern and infer the time to the common ancestor of a positively selected allele following a rapid increase in frequency. We do so using a hidden Markov model which leverages the length distribution of the shared ancestral haplotype, the accumulation of derived mutations on the ancestral background, and the surrounding background haplotype diversity. Using simulations, we demonstrate how the inclusion of information from both mutation and recombination events increases accuracy relative to approaches that only consider a single type of event. We also show the behavior of the estimator in cases where data do not conform to model assumptions, and provide some diagnostics for assessing and improving inference. Using the method, we analyze population-specific patterns in the 1000 Genomes Project data to estimate the timing of adaptation for several variants which show evidence of recent selection and functional relevance to diet, skin pigmentation, and morphology in humans.