Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century

Global climate model projections suggest that 21st century climate change will bring significant drying in the terrestrial midlatitudes. Recent glacier modeling suggests that runoff from glaciers will continue to provide substantial freshwater in many drainage basins, though the supply will generally diminish throughout the century. In the absence of dynamic glacier ice within global climate models (GCMs), a comprehensive picture of future drought conditions in glaciated regions has been elusive. Here, we leverage the results of existing GCM simulations and a global glacier model to evaluate glacial buffering of droughts in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We find that accounting for glacial runoff tends to increase multi-model ensemble mean SPEI and reduce drought frequency and severity, even in basins with relatively little glacier cover. Glacial drought buffering persists even as glacial runoff is projected to decline through the 21st century.

Late Pleistocene glacial chronologies and paleoclimate in the northern Rocky Mountains

The geologic record of mountain glaciations is a robust indicator of terrestrial paleoclimate change. During the last glaciation, mountain ranges across the western U.S. hosted glaciers while the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets flowed to the west and east of the continental divide, respectively. Records detailing the chronologies and paleoclimate significance of these ice advances have been developed for many sites across North America. However, relatively few glacial records have been developed for mountain glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains near ice sheet margins. Here, we report cosmogenic beryllium-10 surface exposure ages and numerical glacier modeling results showing that mountain glaciers in the northern Rockies abandoned terminal moraines after the end of the Last Glacial Maximum around 17–18 ka and could have been sustained by −10 to −8.5 °C temperature depressions relative to modern assuming similar or drier than modern precipitation. Additionally, we present a deglacial chronology from the northern Rocky Mountains that indicates while there is considerable variability in initial moraine abandonment ages across the Rocky Mountains, the pace of subsequent ice retreat through the Lateglacial exhibits some regional coherence. Our results provide insight on potential regional mechanisms driving the initiation of and sustained deglaciation in the western U.S. including rising atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet collapse.

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution

Alpine glaciers are shrinking and rapidly loosing mass in a warming climate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the future consequences of these retreats on water resources, the hydropower industry and risk management. However, the performance of such ice flow modeling is generally difficult to evaluate because of the lack of long-term glaciological observations. Here, we assess the performance of the Elmer/Ice full Stokes ice flow model using the long dataset of mass balance, thickness change, ice flow velocity and snout fluctuation measurements obtained between 1979 and 2015 on the Mer de Glace glacier, France. Ice flow modeling results are compared in detail to comprehensive glaciological observations over 4 decades including both a period of glacier expansion preceding a long period of decay. To our knowledge, a comparison to data at this detail is unprecedented. We found that the model accurately reconstructs the velocity, elevation and length variations of this glacier despite some discrepancies that remain unexplained. The calibrated and validated model was then applied to simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace from 2015 to 2050 using 26 different climate scenarios. Depending on the climate scenarios, the largest glacier in France, with a length of 20 km, could retreat by 2 to 6 km over the next 3 decades.

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near future evolution

All alpine glaciers are shrinking and retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the future consequences of this retreat on water resources, the hydropower industry and risk management. However, the performance of such ice flow modeling is generally difficult to evaluate because of the lack of long-term glaciological observations. Here, we assess the performance of the Elmer/Ice full-Stokes ice flow model using the long dataset of mass balance, thickness change, ice flow velocity and snout fluctuation measurements obtained between 1979 and 2015 on the Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc area). Ice flow modeling results are compared in detail to comprehensive glaciological observations over four decades including both a period of glacier expansion and a long period of decay. To our knowledge a comparison to data at this detail is unprecedented. We found that the model accurately reconstructs the velocity and elevation variations of this glacier despite some discrepancies that remain unexplained. The calibrated and validated model was then applied to simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace from 2015 to 2050 using 26 different climate scenarios. Depending on the climate scenarios, this glacier, the largest in France, could retreat by 2 to 5 km over the next three decades.