Prior Setting In Practice: Strategies and rationales used in choosing prior distributions for Bayesian analysis

Bayesian statistical analysis is steadily growing in popularity and use. Choosing priors is an integral part of Bayesian inference. While there exist extensive normative recommendations for prior setting, little is known about how priors are chosen in practice. We conducted a survey (N = 50) and interviews (N = 9) where we used interactive visualizations to elicit prior distributions from researchers experienced with Bayesian statistics and asked them for rationales for those priors. We found that participants' experience and philosophy influence how much and what information they are willing to incorporate into their priors, manifesting as different levels of informativeness and skepticism. We also identified three broad strategies participants use to set their priors: centrality matching, interval matching, and visual probability mass allocation. We discovered that participants' understanding of the notion of "weakly informative priors"---a commonly-recommended normative approach to prior setting---manifests very differently across participants. Our results have implications both for how to develop prior setting recommendations and how to design tools to elicit priors in Bayesian analysis.

Measurements of the mass allocation for multiple injection strategies using the rate of injection and momentum flux signals

As legislations set very stringent environmental and fuel economy standards, researchers have pushed into a continuous development in all areas of the diesel engine. The recent evolution of the injection technologies has permitted to modify the fuel-delivery strategies. From what was a single pulse per injection event, modern systems allow to inject up to eight different times precisely per combustion cycle. In such sense, experimental results of the rate of injection and momentum flux could be useful for validation and improvement of computational models. Moreover, accurately quantifying the injected mass per pulse in a fuel–gas interface can provide data with more realistic engine-like conditions. To this end, this research presents measurements of the rate of injection and momentum flux for two simple multiple injection strategies: a pilot-main and a main-post. Boundary conditions included two rail and discharge pressures, two different pilot/post quantities and four dwell times. A new approach was employed to estimate the mass allocation with the momentum flux data, and results were compared to the rate of injection traces to verify the distribution calculated. On the results, signals for each pulse were successfully decoupled using its rising and falling edge. The shot-to-shot variability of the pilot/post injection was highly dependent on its transitory characteristics, and on the dwell time for post injections due to internal pressure waves. The injected mass per pulse was successfully measured as well in the momentum flux test rig, and the energizing time changed slightly to account for the different operation interfaces. Signals from both measurement campaigns showed a remarkable agreement when compared, ascertain the possibility of measuring the injected mass, and its allocation for multiple injection strategies, in the momentum flux test rig.

The effect of simulated sheep grazing on male and female reproductive performance in Caragana microphylla Lam. (Leguminosae)

Understanding the reproductive response of host plants to herbivores is important in grazing ecology and grassland management. Simulated grazing experiments were conducted to determine the influence of different grazing intensities on reproductive performance of a shrub, Caragana microphylla Lam. The total leaf mass, total flower mass, total flower mass allocation, and single flower mass allocation decreased with increased grazing intensity. The total spine mass, single flower mass and total spine mass allocation increased with increased grazing intensity. The stem mass, stem mass allocation and total leaf mass allocation had not significant change with the increasing grazing intensity. Under heavy grazing treatments, the host plants significantly decreased their investment in reproduction and increased investment in physical defense organs. Although there were no significant differences in the number of ovules among different grazing intensities, herbivory negatively affected reproductive performance, including the number of flowers, the number of pollen grains per flower, the number of ripe seeds and the rate of pod-set in host plants. These results indicate that there are trade-offs among vegetative and reproductive and defensive organs. Compared with male reproduction, female reproductive performance was less sensitive to herbivory and grazing intensity. Moreover, pollen grains from heavily browsed plants seemed to be less likely to sire pods and ripe seeds than those from unbrowsed plants, indicating that herbivory not only decreased pollen production, but also adversely affected pollen performance.

Experimental Manipulation of Dispersal Ability in A Neotropical Butterfly Anartia fatima (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

Research on endangered British butterflies has found that butterfly populations in small refuges evolve to allocate more mass to the thorax (flight muscle) and less to the abdomen than populations in large refuges. The observed change in mass allocation affects two morphological features relevant to flight: the flight muscle ratio (FMR) and the position of center of body mass (cmbody). The author tested whether a decrease in FMR or a change in cmbody reduced the ability to disperse by experimentally weight-loading Neotropical Anartia fatima butterflies. In one treatment group, FMR was decreased but cmbody was not altered, whereas in the second group FMR was decreased and cmbody was repositioned further posterior. In one mark–release–recapture (MRR) experiment, butterflies dispersed relatively slowly, and treatment groups did not differ significantly. In a replicate experiment, butterflies dispersed more quickly, and control butterflies dispersed more rapidly than either treatment group. Differences in dispersal were consistent with a causal relationship between FMR and movement. A more posterior cmbody had little effect on dispersal beyond that due to the change in FMR. These results support the hypothesis that an increase in mass allocation to the thorax in small, dispersed refugia is due to selection on the ability to disperse.

Hybrid variation for root system efficiency in maize: potential links to drought adaptation

Water availability can limit maize (Zea mays L.) yields, and root traits may enhance drought adaptation if they can moderate temporal patterns of soil water extraction to favour grain filling. Root system efficiency (RSE), defined as transpiration per unit leaf area per unit of root mass, represents the functional mass allocation to roots to support water capture relative to the allocation to aerial mass that determines water demand. The aims of this study were to identify the presence of hybrid variation for RSE in maize, determine plant attributes that drive these differences and illustrate possible links of RSE to drought adaptation via associations with water extraction patterns. Individual plants for a range of maize hybrids were grown in large containers in shadehouses in Queensland, Australia. Leaf area, shoot and root mass, transpiration, root distribution and soil water were measured in all or selected experiments. Significant hybrid differences in RSE existed. High RSE was associated with reduced dry mass allocation to roots and more efficient water capture per unit of root mass. It was also weakly negatively associated with total plant dry mass, reducing preanthesis water use. This could increase grain yield under drought. RSE provides a conceptual physiological framework to identify traits for high-throughput phenotyping in breeding programs.