A Challenging Tornado Forecast in Slovakia

An F1 tornado hit the village of Lekárovce in eastern Slovakia on the afternoon of 3 October 2018. The tornado, which occurred outside the main convective season in Slovakia, was not anticipated by the meteorologists of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. The models available to the forecasters simulated an environment of marginal convective available potential energy (CAPE) and weakening vertical wind shear. This paper addresses forecasting challenges associated with events related to a tornado threat. To investigate conditions before tornado formation, observational datasets, including sounding, and vertical-azimuth display (VAD) data from a radar station and surface stations were used. Hodographs based on observational data and a higher-resolution run of the limited-area model showed stronger lower tropospheric shear than was formerly anticipated over the area of interest. The higher-resolution model was able to better represent the modification of the lower tropospheric flow by a mountain chain, which was crucial to maintaining the strong lower tropospheric shear in the early afternoon hours before the tornado’s occurrence. We discuss the importance of using both observational datasets and higher-resolution modeling in the simulation of lower tropospheric wind profiles, which affect the lower tropospheric storm relative helicity as one of the key ingredients in mesocyclonic tornadogenesis.

Variability in vertical structure of precipitation with sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal as inferred by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar measurements

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar measurements are used to examine the variation in vertical structure of precipitation with sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB). The variation in reflectivity and precipitation echo top with SST is remarkable over the AS but small over the BOB. The reflectivity increases with SST (from 26 to 31 ∘C) by ∼1 and 4 dBZ above and below 6 km, respectively, over the AS, while its variation is <0.5 dBZ over the BOB. The transition from shallow storms at lower SSTs (≤27 ∘C) to deeper storms at higher SSTs is strongly associated with the decrease in stability and mid-tropospheric wind shear over the AS. In contrary, the storms are deeper at all SSTs over the BOB due to weaker stability and mid-tropospheric wind shear. At lower SSTs, the observed high aerosol optical depth (AOD) and low total column water (TCW) over AS results in the small cloud effective radius (CER) and weaker reflectivity. As SST increases, AOD decreases and TCW increases, leading to a large CER and high reflectivity. The changes in these parameters with SST are marginal over the BOB and hence the CER and reflectivity. The predominance of collision–coalescence process below the bright band is responsible for the observed negative slopes in the reflectivity over both the seas. The observed variations in reflectivity originate at the cloud formation stage over both the seas, and these variations are magnified during the descent of hydrometeors to the ground.

Is There a “Tipping Point” between Simulated Nontornadic and Tornadic Supercells in VORTEX2 Environments?

Previous work has suggested that the lower-tropospheric wind profile may partly determine whether supercells become tornadic. If tornadogenesis within the VORTEX2 composite environments is more sensitive to the lower-tropospheric winds than to either the upper-tropospheric winds or the thermodynamic profile, then systematically varying the lower-tropospheric wind profile might reveal a “tipping point” between nontornadic and tornadic supercells. As a test, simulated supercells are initiated in environments that have been gradually interpolated between the low-level wind profiles of the nontornadic and tornadic VORTEX2 supercell composites while also interchanging the upper-tropospheric winds and thermodynamic profile. Simulated supercells become tornadic when the low-level wind profile incorporates at least 40% of the structure from the tornadic VORTEX2 composite environment. Both the nontornadic and tornadic storms have similar outflow temperatures and availability of surface vertical vorticity near their updrafts. Most distinctly, a robust low-level mesocyclone and updraft immediately overlie the intensifying near-surface circulation in each of the tornadic supercells. The nontornadic supercells have low-level updrafts that are disorganized, with pockets of descent throughout the region where surface vertical vorticity resides. The lower-tropospheric wind profile drives these distinct configurations of the low-level mesocyclone and updraft, regardless of the VORTEX2 composite upper-tropospheric wind profile or thermodynamic profile. This study therefore supports a potentially useful, robust link between the probability of supercell tornadogenesis and the lower-tropospheric wind profile, with tornadogenesis more (less) likely when the orientation of horizontal vorticity in the lowest few hundred meters is streamwise (crosswise).

Role of Finite-Amplitude Rossby Waves and Nonconservative Processes in Downward Migration of Extratropical Flow Anomalies

There is growing evidence that stratospheric variability exerts a noticeable imprint on tropospheric weather and climate. Despite clear evidence of these impacts, the principal mechanism whereby stratospheric variability influences tropospheric circulation has remained elusive. Here, the authors introduce a novel approach, based on the theory of finite-amplitude wave activity, for quantifying the role of adiabatic and nonconservative effects on the mean flow that shape the downward coupling from the stratosphere to the troposphere during stratospheric vortex weakening (SVW) events. The advantage of using this theory is that eddy effects (at finite amplitude) on the mean flow can be more readily distinguished from nonconservative effects. The results show (in confirmation of previous work) that the downward migration of extratropical wind anomalies is largely attributable to dynamical adjustments induced by fluctuating finite-amplitude wave forcing. The nonconservative effects, on the other hand, contribute to maintaining the downward signals in the recovery stage within the stratosphere, hinting at the importance of mixing and diabatic heating. The analysis further indicates that variations in stratospheric finite-amplitude wave forcing are too weak to account for the attendant changes and shapes in the tropospheric flow. It is suggested that the indirect effect of tropospheric finite-amplitude wave activity through the residual displacements is needed to amplify and prolong the tropospheric wind responses over several weeks. The results also reveal that the local tropospheric wave activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic sectors plays a significant role in shaping the high-latitude tropospheric wind response to SVW events.