Secular trends in chronic respiratory diseases mortality in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa: a comparative study across main BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019

Background As the emerging economies, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) shared 61.58% of the global chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) deaths in 2017. This study aimed to assess the secular trends in CRD mortality and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort across main BRICS countries. Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and analyzed using the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019. The net drifts, local drifts, longitudinal age curves, period/cohort rate ratios (RRs) were obtained through the APC model. Results In 2019, the CRD deaths across the BRICS were 2.39 (95%UI 1.95 to 2.84) million, accounting for 60.07% of global CRD deaths. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma remained the leading causes of CRD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) have declined across the BRICS since 1990, with the most apparent decline in China. Meanwhile, the downward trends in CRD death counts were observed in China and Russia. The overall net drifts per year were obvious in China (-5.89%; -6.06% to -5.71%), and the local drift values were all below zero in all age groups for both sexes. The age effect of CRD presented increase with age, and the period and cohort RRs were following downward trends over time across countries. Similar trends were observed in COPD and asthma. The improvement of CRD mortality was the most obvious in China, especially in period and cohort effects. While South Africa showed the most rapid increase with age across all CRD categories, and the period and cohort effects were flat. Conclusions BRICS accounted for a large proportion of CRD deaths, with China and India alone contributing more than half of the global CRD deaths. However, the declines in ASMR and improvements of period and cohort effects have been observed in both sexes and all age groups across main BRICS countries. China stands out for its remarkable reduction in CRD mortality and its experience may help reduce the burden of CRD in developing countries.

Evidence from 1992 to 2019 on the dynamics of managerial authority and CEO remuneration during company crises

We investigate the dynamics of two governance constructs, management influence over the board of directors and CEO remuneration, in enterprises in crisis from 1992 to 2019. Data reveal a strong trend of improving governance over time, which confounds the conclusion concerning the impact of distress on governance. Using a bias-corrected matching estimator to control for secular trends, we find that distressed businesses cut management board appointments and CEO compensation, deepen managerial incentive alignment, and increase CEO turnover. The performance-related component of CEO remuneration accounts for the majority of changes in CEO compensation in troubled businesses, which is consistent with the "shareholder value" perspective on CEO compensation.

Estimation of Groundwater Depletion in Iran’s Catchments Using Well Data

Iran is experiencing significant water challenges that have now turned water security into a national priority. By estimating secular trend groundwater storage in Iran between 2002 and 2017, we see that there is an intensive negative trend, even −4400 Mm3 in some areas. These estimations show shifting in the climate and extra extraction from aquifers for agricultural use in some areas in Iran. The secular trend of groundwater storage changes across the whole of Iran inferred from observation well data is −20.08 GT/yr. The secular trends of GWS changes based on observation well data are: −11.55 GT/yr for the Central Plateau basin, −3.60 GT/yr for the Caspian Sea basin, −3.0 GT/yr for the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea basin, −0.53 GT/yr for the Urmieh Lake basin, −0.57 GT/yr for the Eastern Boundary basin, and −0.83 GT/yr for the Gharaghom basin. The most depleted sub-basin (Kavir Markazi) has secular trends of GWS changes of −4.503 GT/yr. This study suggests that groundwater depletion is the largest single contributor to the observed negative trend of groundwater storage changes in Iran, the majority of which occurred after the drought in 2007. The groundwater loss that has been accrued during the study period is particularly alarming for Iran, which is already facing severe water scarcity.

Cohort Differences in Daily Life: Older Adults Have Higher Affect Variability Than 18 Years Ago

Lifespan psychological and life course sociological perspectives have long acknowledged that individual functioning is shaped by historical and socio-cultural contexts. Secular increases favoring later-born cohorts are widely documented for general well-being (among older adults). However, little is known about secular trends in short-term fluctuations in daily affective well-being and whether historical changes have occurred in young, middle-aged, and older adults alike. To examine these questions, we compared data from two independent national samples of the NSDE survey obtained 18 years apart (1995/96 vs. 2013/14) and identified case-matched cohorts (per cohort, n = 782, aged = 23–75 years) based on age and gender. We additionally examine the role of economic and health resources for cohort differences in affective variability. Results revealed that later-born cohorts report higher variability in daily negative affect than did those 18 years ago. In contrast, no cohort differences emerged in variability in daily positive affect. We conclude from our national US sample that secular trends in affect variability do not generalize unanimously to different timescales across adulthood. We discuss possible underlying mechanisms and practical implications.

Secular trends in early motor development between 1980 and 2010 in Japan

ObjectiveRecent changes in birth characteristics in Japan may have a potential influence on children’s developments. Therefore, we investigated secular trends in gross motor milestones.DesignData were collected from an official Japanese nationwide serial cross-sectional survey conducted every 10 years since 1960. 22 320 participants aged 2–18 months were identified from the four surveys from 1980 to 2010.OutcomesWe assessed whether or not a child achieved four gross motor milestones including rolling over (rolling), sitting without support (sitting), standing with support (standing) and walking alone (walking). The target age was defined as the age when the attainment rate ranged from >5% to >95% of the total. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted.ResultsThe final cohort included 20 570 children. The target ages were determined as follows: 3–6 months for rolling; 5–9 months for sitting; 6–11 months for standing; and 9–15 months for walking. The attainment rates of sitting, standing and walking in 1990 were higher than those in 2010, even after adjusting for child characteristics (sitting: adjusted OR (aOR)=2.07 (95% CI 1.62 to 2.65); standing: aOR=1.63 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.02); and walking: aOR=1.61 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.95)).ConclusionsThe proportion of children who attained three motor milestones (sitting, standing and walking) by set target ages decreased between 1990 and 2010. The contribution of birth characteristics including a decrease in gestational age and fetal growth, as well as changes in other child characteristics, failed to explain why this decrease occurred.

The Effect of Expanded Access to Mental Health Care on Economic Status of Households with a Person with a Mental Disorder in Rural Ethiopia: A Controlled Before-After Study

BackgroundPoverty and mental illness are strongly associated. The aim of this study was to investigate the economic impact of implementing a district level integrated mental healthcare plan for people with severe mental disorders (SMD) and depression compared to secular trends in the general population in a rural Ethiopian setting.MethodsA community-based, controlled before-after study design was used to assess changes in household economic status and catastrophic out-of-pocket (OOP) payments in relation to expanded access to mental health care. Two household samples were recruited, each with a community control group: (1) SMD sub-study and (2) depression sub-study. In the SMD sub-study, 290 households containing a member with SMD and 289 comparison households without a person with SMD participated. In the depression sub-study, 129 households with a person with depression and 129 comparison households. The case and comparison cohorts were followed up over 12 months. Propensity score matching and multivariable regression analyses were conducted. ResultsProvision of mental healthcare in the district was associated with a greater increase in income (Birr 919.53, 95% CI: 34.49, 4573.56) but no significant changes in consumption expenditure (Birr 176.25, 95% CI: -1338.19, 1690.70) in households of people with SMD compared to secular trends in comparison households. In households of people with depression, there was no significant change in income (Birr 227.78, 95% CI: -1361.21, 1816.79) or consumption expenditure (Birr -81.20, 95% CI: -2572.57, 2410.15). The proportion of households incurring catastrophic OOP payments at the ≥10% and ≥40% thresholds were significantly reduced after the intervention in the SMD (from 20.3% to 9.0%, p=0.002, and 31.9% to 14.9%, p< 0.001) and in the depression intervention (from 19.6% to 5.3%, p=0.003, and 25.2% to 11.8%, p= 0.015). Nonetheless, households of persons with SMD or depression remained impoverished relative to comparison groups at follow-up. Households of people with SMD and depression were significantly less likely to be enrolled in community-based health insurance (CBHI) than comparison households. ConclusionsOur findings support global initiatives to scale up mental healthcare as part of universal health coverage initiatives, alongside interventions to support social inclusion and targeted financial protection for vulnerable households.