Household consumption and home production at retirement in Thailand: evidence from a regression discontinuity approach

This paper uses Socio-Economic Surveys covering the period from 2013 to 2019 and the 2015 Time Use Survey to investigate the extent to which household consumption changes at retirement in Thailand. A fuzzy regression discontinuity design is applied to evaluate the retirement effect on total household expenditure and expenditures on four major categories: food-at-home, work-related items, non-durable entertainment, and others. The results reveal that retirement decreases household expenditure by 11%. Further investigations show that the dramatic declines in expenditures on work-related and non-durable entertainment contribute significantly to the spending drop at retirement. The magnitudes of the declines are more pronounced for low-income and low-wealth households. The results also indicate that the retirees spend more leisure time on home production activities after retirement. Once accounting for this effect, it finds that the drop in total household expenditure decreases to 6%. These results suggest that the sizable consumption expenditure drop at retirement is due to substituting away from market purchased goods toward home-produced goods.

How the Spouse's Retirement Affects the Cognitive Health of Individuals in China: A Fresh Evidence From the Perspective of Social Interaction

Background: With the rapid aging of global population, the health consequences of retirement reform are debated greatly. However, most previous studies are limited to the effects on individual themselves, and pay scant attention to the social interaction between individuals and their spouse which may induce the social multiplier effect of retirement. Driven by the practical and academic motives, this study investigates the impacts of the spouse's retirement on the individual's cognitive health among Chinese dual-earner couples.Methods: We first build a simultaneous-equations model. Then, using the data from the 2010 to 2018 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we choose the fixed-effects model and adopt the fuzzy regression discontinuity design method to analyze. Besides, we check the validity and robustness of the results. Finally, we employ the mediating effect model to explore the mechanisms.Results and Conclusions: The spouse's retirement has significantly negative direct and indirect effect on individual cognitive health. Husbands' retirement has a stronger adverse spillover effect than wives' retirement, and wives' cognitive health is more vulnerable to the social interaction effect. The direct spillover effect of husbands' retirement is −0.503 and that of wives' retirement is −0.312, the indirect spillover effect of husbands' retirement is −0.36 and that of wives' retirement is −0.279. In addition to the social interaction effect of cognition between the couples, we also find that the decrease in household income is an important mechanism, and that the increased exercise frequency can somewhat mitigate the adverse spillover effect.

Vocational training for unemployed youth in Latvia

We analyze the effectiveness of a vocational training (VT) programme targeting unemployed youth in Latvia, contributing to the scant literature on active labour market policies in transition countries. The programme we analyse is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme (2014–2020), the largest action launched by the European Union to combat youth unemployment after the 2008 financial crisis. Although the programme was targeted to youths aged between 15 and 29, priority was given to those younger than 25 years of age. We exploit this eligibility rule in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design framework to estimate the impact of VT participation on the probability of being employed and gross monthly labour income at given dates after the training. Using rich administrative data, we find that the age priority rule increased programme participation for the youngest group by about 10 percentage points. However, participation in the programme did not lead to statistically significant positive effects in labour market outcomes. We argue that this result could be due to some specific characteristics of the programme, namely the voucher system (potentially inducing lock-in effects) and the type of training (classroom instead of on-the-job training). Moreover, the programme was targeted at ex-ante low-employable individuals (e.g. without vocational qualifications), a fact that is confirmed by our analysis of the characteristics of the population of compliers with the age priority rule.

The effect of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey: evidence from structural equation modelling and regression discontinuity design

PurposeUnemployment can negatively affect individuals, their families and communities in various ways. When individuals are out of work may experience mental and physical health problems, material deprivation and poverty. This study aims to examine the impact of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a structural equation modelling (SEM) to consider the simultaneous relationships among the unemployment benefits and the latent variables of health and Standard of Living (SoL). We propose a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) and a Regression Kink Design (RKD) within the SEM framework to infer causality. For the empirical analysis, the authors employ the panel Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) in 2007–2015.FindingsThe authors’ findings suggest that those who receive these benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health and improve their living standards compared to the non-recipients. Furthermore, unemployment benefits replacement rates are associated with improved levels in health and living standards. The authors’ results indicate a substantial heterogeneity on the impact of unemployment benefits since males, low educated individuals and those belonging to the lower levels of income are affected more in terms of their health status and living standards.Originality/valueThe majority of earlier studies have focused on the impact of unemployment benefits on labor outcomes. The originality of this study is that we implement the FRDD and RKD within the SEM framework to explore, simultaneously, the impact of unemployment insurance on health and living standards. Moreover, future research studies can implement this framework to infer causality and explore the impact of related policies and reforms.

The effect of retirement on the health of elderly people: evidence from China

The low retirement age has imposed a heavy economic burden on the pension system in China, leading to an ongoing debate about raising the retirement age. To understand the potential costs of raising the retirement age, we need to consider the health effects of retirement policies. Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015, this study employs the statutory retirement age as the exogenous variable of retirement and applies a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) to examine the effect of retirement on the health of Chinese elderly people. We find that retirement has a non-significant effect on health with respect to a series of health indicators, different bandwidths of RDD and sub-sample groups. The finding is also robust across different retirement definitions and retirement ages. This result may be attributed to the minimal changes in income and lifestyles before and after retirement. Moreover, the findings of this study provide important evidence for policy makers to increase retirement ages in China.

Finance and Firm Volatility: Evidence from Small Business Lending in China

The online trading platform Alibaba provides financial technology (FinTech) credit for millions of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Using a novel data set of daily sales and an internal credit score threshold that governs the allocation of credit, we apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) to explore the causal effect of credit access on firm volatility. We find that credit access significantly reduces firm sales volatility and that the effect is stronger for firms with fewer alternative sources of financing. We further look at firm exit probability and find that firms with access to FinTech credit are less likely to go bankrupt or exit the business in the future. Additional channel tests reveal that firms with FinTech credit invest more in advertising and product/sector diversification, particularly during business downturns, which serves as effective mechanisms through which credit access reduces firm volatility. Overall, our findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of FinTech credit in MSMEs. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.

How and to what extent can pensions facilitate increased use of health services by older people: evidence from social pension expansion in rural China

Background The proportion of people aged 60 years or over is growing faster than other age groups. Traditionally, retirement has been considered as both a loss to the labour market and an additional economic burden on the nation. More recently, it is widely accepted that retired people can still contribute to society in many ways, though the extent of their contributions will depend heavily on their state of health. In this context, a significant practical issue is how to encourage older people to use the health services they need. This study aims to evaluate the effects of pensions on older adults’ health service utilization, and estimate the level of pension required to influence such utilization. Methods Using data from a nationally representative sample survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we adopted a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and undertook segmented regression analysis. Results It was found that a pension did encourage low-income people to use both outpatient (OR = 1.219, 95% 1.018–1.460) and inpatient services (OR = 1.269, 95% 1.020–1.579); but also encouraged both low- and high-income people to choose self-treatment, specifically over-the-counter (OR = 1.208, 95% 1.037–1.407; OR = 1.206, 95% 1.024–1.419; respectively) and traditional Chinese medicines (OR = 1.452, 95% 1.094–1.932; OR = 1.456, 95% 1.079–1.955; respectively). However, receiving a pension had no effect on the frequency of outpatient and inpatient service use. Breakpoints for a pension to promote health service utilization were mainly located in the range 55–95 CNY (7.1–12.3 EUR or 8.0–13.8 USD). Conclusions A pension was found to have mixed effects on health service utilization for different income groups. Our study enriches existing evidence on the impact of pensions on healthcare-seeking behaviour and can be helpful in policy design and the formulation of improved models relating to pensions and healthcare utilisation.

How and to what extent can pensions facilitate increased use of health services by older people: Evidence from social pension expansion in rural China

Background: The proportion of people aged 60 years or over is growing faster than other age groups. Traditionally, retirement has been considered as both a loss to the labour market and an additional economic burden on the nation. More recently, it is widely accepted that retired people can still contribute to society in many ways, though the extent of their contributions will depend heavily on their state of health. In this context, a significant practical issue is how to encourage older people to use the health services they need. This study aims to evaluate the effects of pensions on older adults’ health service utilization, and estimate the level of pension required to influence such utilization. Methods: Using data from a nationally representative sample survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we adopted a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and undertook segmented regression analysis. Results: It was found that a pension did encourage low-income people to use both outpatient (OR = 1.219, 95% 1.018-1.460) and inpatient services (OR = 1.269, 95% 1.020-1.579); but also encouraged both low- and high-income people to choose self-treatment, specifically over-the-counter (OR = 1.208, 95% 1.037-1.407; OR = 1.206, 95% 1.024-1.419; respectively) and traditional Chinese medicines (OR = 1.452, 95% 1.094-1.932; OR = 1.456, 95% 1.079-1.955; respectively). However, receiving a pension had no effect on the frequency of outpatient and inpatient service use. Breakpoints for a pension to promote health service utilization were mainly located in the range 55-95 CNY (7.1-12.3 EUR or 8.0-13.8 USD). Conclusions: A pension was found to have mixed effects on health service utilization for different income groups. Our study enriches existing evidence on the impact of pensions on healthcare-seeking behaviour and can be helpful in policy design and the formulation of improved models relating to pensions and healthcare utilisation.

Rural Roads and Local Economic Development

Nearly one billion people worldwide live in rural areas without access to national paved road networks. We estimate the impacts of India’s $40 billion national rural road construction program using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and comprehensive household and firm census microdata. Four years after road construction, the main effect of new feeder roads is to facilitate the movement of workers out of agriculture. However, there are no major changes in agricultural outcomes, income, or assets. Employment in village firms expands only slightly. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities. (JEL J43, O13, O18, R23, R42)