The interest rate sensitivity of output and prices with different levels of financial inclusion

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the interest rate (IR) sensitivity of output and prices in developing economies with different levels of financial inclusion (FI) for the period 2007Q1–2017Q4. Design/methodology/approach By using the PCA method to construct an FI index for each country, the author divides the sample into two groups (high and low FI levels). Then, with panel vector autoregressions on per group estimated to assess the strength of the impulse response of output and prices to IR shock. Findings The findings show that the impact of an IR shock on output and inflation is greater in economies with a higher degree of FI. Practical implications The finding indicates the link between FI and the effectiveness of IRs as a monetary policy tool, thereby helping Central banks to have a clearer goal of FI to implement their monetary policy. Originality/value This study emphasizes the important role of FI in the economy. From there, an FI solution is integrated into the construction and calculation of its impact on monetary policy, improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, contributing to price stability and sustainable growth.

GLOBALIZATION AND REAL GDP: NEW EVIDENCE USING PANEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION

The existence and the direction of the relationship between globalization and real GDP (RGDP) are very debatable. By employing annual data of 92 countries from 1970 to 2011, we apply Pedroni’s [Econometric Theory, 20, (2004) 597–625] panel cointegration test and the panel vector autoregressions (VARs) model, proposed by Love and Zicchino [Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(2), (2006) 190–210], to investigate again the relationship between these two variables. The results first present the weak evidence of cointegration between RGDP and overall globalization and its three main sub-indices. Second, the empirical evidence shows a bidirectional causality between RGDP and overall globalization, economic as well as social, but higher political globalization harms RGDP in the sample countries. Hence, we offer evidence for a clear bidirectional effect between RGDP and each globalization index in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, but not in non-OECD ones. Several empirical implications and suggestions are proposed through our observations.

Revenue Autonomy and Regional Growth: An Analysis of the 25-Year Process of Fiscal Decentralisation in Spain

By estimating bivariate panel vector autoregressions, this paper analyses the relationship between the revenue autonomy of Spanish regional governments and the regional growth experienced in Spain during the process of fiscal decentralisation from 1984 to 2008. The key finding is the presence of a significant, but marginal, positive effect of regional governments' revenue autonomy on regional growth during the period considered. The small size of the effect can be attributed to the fact that Spanish regional governments have not made extensive use of their important regulatory powers acquired in the 1996 review of the regional financing system or, alternatively, to the fact that the policy of increasing revenue autonomy might have reached saturation point during the period studied, with regard to its effect on economic growth. Both arguments are supported by the identification of an apparent breakpoint, in 1999, in the relationship between revenue autonomy and regional growth in Spain.