On the Varying Responses of East Asian Winter Monsoon to Three Types of El Niño: Observations and Model Hindcasts

Using observational data and model hindcasts produced by a coupled climate model, we examine the response of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) to three types of El Niño: eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific I (CP-I) and II (CP-II) El Niños. The observational analysis shows that all three El Niño types weaken the EAWM with varying degrees of impact. The EP El Niño has the largest weakening effect, while the CP-II El Niño has the second largest, and the CP-I El Niño has the smallest. We find that diverse El Niño types impact the EAWM by altering the responses of two anomalous anticyclones during El Niño mature winter: the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) and Kuroshio anticyclone (KAC). The WNPAC responses are controlled by the Gill response and Indian Ocean warming processes that both respond to the eastern-to-central tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies. The KAC responses are controlled by a poleward wave propagation responding to the northwestern tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies. We find that the model hindcasts significantly underestimate the weakening effect during the EP and CP-II El Niños. These underestimations are related to a model deficiency in which it produces a too-weak WNPAC response during the EP El Niño and completely misses the KAC response during both types of El Niño. The too-weak WNPAC response is caused by the model deficiency of simulating too-weak eastern-to-central tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies. The lack of KAC response arises from the unrealistic response of the model’s extratropical atmosphere to the northwestern tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies.

Theory of Mind Development in Preschoolers with Hearing Impairment

The article is devoted to the study of the development of a mental model in preschoolers with hearing impairment after cochlear implantation. The analysis of the specifics of the manifestations of the mental model deficiency, which is associated with the peculiarities of using the means of special attention in preschoolers with hearing impairment, is carried out. The ability of a child's focal attention to attention as a critical additional, necessary for the development of a mental model. Sample consisted of 40 preschool children aged 5-7 years (Mage=5,9 years, SDage=0,6 months), 20 with sensorineural hearing loss with cochlear implants (years (Mage=5,6 years, SDage=0,6 months, age by moment of implantation Mage=3,2 years, SDage=0,6) and 20 typically developing preschoolers of 5–7 years old (Mage=5,1 years, SDage=0,5 months). Standardized methods for assessing the mental model were used: test for erroneous opinion (Sally–Anne's task), the task “What does Charlie want?”, the task of understanding intentions based on external signs, the task of understanding the principle “to see means” (A.S. Gerasimova, E.A. Sergienko) To fix the eye movement of preschoolers during the behavior of a child with an adult in play conditions, the eye-tracking method was used. It is recorded that preschoolers with hearing impairments are selectively unable to detect and interpret the intentions of another person, and they also have a lack of means of coordinated attention.

Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6–10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20–50% in A1B and positive 20–40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15–50% and 10–30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from −10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.