Role of the Indian Ocean in the Biennial Transition of the Indian Summer Monsoon

The biennial variability is a large component of year-to-year variations in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Previous studies have shown that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in the biennial variability of the ISM. The present study investigates the role of the Indian Ocean in the biennial transition of the ISM when the Pacific ENSO is absent. The influence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans on the biennial transition between the ISM and the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is also examined. Controlled numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) are used to address the above two issues. The CGCM captures the in-phase ISM to ASM transition (i.e., a wet ISM followed by a wet ASM or a dry ISM followed by a dry ASM) and the out-of-phase ASM to ISM transition (i.e., a wet ASM followed by a dry ISM or a dry ASM followed by a wet ISM). These transitions are more frequent than the out-of-phase ISM to ASM transition and the in-phase ASM to ISM transition in the coupled model, consistent with observations. The results of controlled coupled model experiments indicate that both the Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling are important for properly simulating the biennial transition between the ISM and ASM in the CGCM. The biennial transition of the ISM can occur through local air–sea interactions in the north Indian Ocean when the Pacific ENSO is suppressed. The local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies induce the Indian monsoon transition through low-level moisture convergence. Surface evaporation anomalies, which are largely controlled by surface wind speed changes, play an important role for SST changes. Different from local air–sea interaction mechanisms proposed in previous studies, the atmospheric feedback is not strong enough to reverse the SST anomalies immediately at the end of the monsoon season. Instead, the reversal of the SST anomalies is accomplished in the spring of the following year, which in turn leads to the Indian monsoon transition.

Interaction between the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and the Hadley Circulation

Interannual changes of the stratospheric circulation are studied in relation to coherent changes of the tropospheric circulation. Emerging over the winter pole is a clear signature of adiabatic warming and anomalous downwelling. Reflecting an intensification of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, the signature of anomalous downwelling extends from stratospheric levels into the troposphere. Compensating for it at subpolar latitudes is a signature of adiabatic cooling and anomalous upwelling. Equally coherent, the signature of anomalous upwelling occupies the same levels as the signature of anomalous downwelling. Inside the tropical troposphere, anomalous cooling is replaced by anomalous warming. It reflects an intensification of organized convection and the Hadley circulation, one that accompanies the intensification of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. These signatures of anomalous vertical motion represent changes that operate coherently in the stratosphere and troposphere. They share major features with the Arctic Oscillation. Extending across the tropopause, they couple the stratosphere and troposphere through a transfer of mass. By modifying vertical motion inside the Tropics, anomalous upwelling influences organized convection. Support for this interpretation comes from anomalous divergence in the tropical upper troposphere; it is shown to vary coherently with anomalous downwelling in the Arctic stratosphere. Exhibiting analogous behavior are changes of the tropical tropopause. Coupled to stratospheric changes, these variations of the tropical circulation act to organize convection about the equator, favoring a split ITCZ. They reflect as much as 40% of the interannual variance of tropical divergence, representing an important complement to ENSO. Much of the covariance between the polar stratosphere and the tropical troposphere is concentrated at periods shorter than 5 yr. Included is variability that is associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere. Also included is biennial variability, which accompanies the QBO in the polar stratosphere. These stratospheric variations involve the same time scales as biennial variability in the tropical troposphere, which likewise influences convection.