POTENSI PELUANG DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) BERDASARKAN PROYEKSI PERUBAHAN IKLIM (STUDY KASUS : DKI JAKARTA)

Abstrak :Pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap demam berdarah dengue (DBD) bersifat tidak langsung. Hal ini karena terdapat faktor perantara penyebab yaitu nyamuk Aedes Aegypti. Perkembangbiakan dan siklus hidup nyamuk Aedes Aegypti inilah yang dipengaruhi langsung oleh kondisi iklim. Kesesuaian iklim dengan lingkungan hidup nyamuk aedes Aegypti ditandai dengan temperatur hangat dan curah hujan tinggi seperti Indonesia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui proyeksi peluang DBD secara rata-rata untuk periode 2014-2038 berdasarkan proyeksi curah hujan dan temperatur. Metode statistik yang digunakan untuk mengetahui pengaruh iklim terhadap kesehatan (demam berdarah) antara lain statistik downscaling, analisis komponen utama, dan regresi logistik ordinal. Hasil analisis menunjukan bahwa curah hujan yang sesuai dengan demam berdarah berkisar 100-300 mm. Untuk curah hujan relatif tinggi 120 – 317 mm yang terjadi pada bulan Januari-Februari, ancaman paling kuat adalah bahaya banjir dan DBD. Untuk temperatur udara, proyeksi ke depan (2014-2038) berkisar antara 26 – 30 oC, kondisi ini masih optimal untuk perkembangan nyamuk Aedes Aegypti. Proyeksi peluang demam berdarah berdasarkan proyeksi curah hujan dan temperatur menunjukan wilayah Jakarta masih berpeluang tinggi sebagai wilayah katagori resiko tinggi demam berdarah dengan nilai peluang 0,74 – 0,99. Abstract : Influence of climate change to Dengue hermologic fever(DHF) has indirect characteristic. There are other factor as medium DHF case, that is aedes Aegypti mosquito. Life cycle and breeding of aedes Aegypti mosquito has direct contact with climate condition. Suitability between climate and life environment of aedes Aegypti mosquito marked with warm temperature and heavy rainfall like Indonesia. The purpose of this study to know projection of DHF average probability period 2013-2038 base on rainfall and temperature projection. Statistical method, such as downscalling statistic, principal component analysis and ordinal logistic regression was applied to know impact of climate on health (dengue cases). Result of analysis shows suitability between rainfall with DHF case is 100-300 mm. January-February has heavy rainfall 120 – 317mm, so needed attention more and more stressing about flood disaster and DHF case. In the period of 2014-2038, interval temperatur occurred between 26 – 30 oC. The interval temperature like this is optimal condition for Aedes Aegypti breeding. The result of probability projection shows that Jakarta is still the region for high risk DHF, with probability value 0,74 – 0,99.

Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) are very likely to increase.