Inter-decadal Change of Tibetan Plateau Vortices during the past four Decades and its Possible Mechanism

<p>The Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are mesoscale weather systems active at the near-surface of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are one of the major precipitation-producing systems over the TP and its surrounding areas. TPVs mainly occur in the warm season from May to September. In this paper, we investigate the inter-decadal change of TPVs in the warm seasons of 1979–2017 by analyzing five widely used reanalysis datasets. A significant change of the TPVs’ frequency appears around the mid-1990s, associated with less TPVs during 1979–1996 and more TPVs during 1997–2017. The abrupt change is caused by a transition of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the mid-1990s. The shift of AMO leads to a silk-road pattern wave train and a spatially asymmetric change of tropospheric temperature. It modifies the intensity of the subtropical westerly jet and the TP heating, leading to the inter-decadal change of TPV activities.</p>

Impactful Tibetan Plateau Vortices: structure, lifecycle and environmental conditions

<p>The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding high mountains constitute an important forcing of the atmospheric circulation due to their height and extent, and thereby impact weather and climate in East Asia. Mesoscale Tibetan Plateau Vortices (TPVs) form over the TP and are one of the major systems generating TP precipitation. The majority of TPVs remain on the TP throughout their lifetime, while a fraction moves east off the TP. These “moving-off” TPVs can trigger extreme precipitation and severe flooding over large parts of eastern and southern China, for example in Sichuan province and the Yangtze River valley. Due to their potentially severe impacts downstream of the TP, it is first important to understand the conditions under which TPVs can move east off the TP.</p><p>In this study, we examine the vertical and horizontal structure of TPVs moving off the TP in contrast to those that do not using reanalysis in order to understand which local and/or large-scale atmospheric conditions lead TPVs to move off the TP. We use composites of atmospheric fields at different stages of the TPV lifecycle (e.g. genesis, maximum intensity, and maximum precipitation) and at different locations over and downstream of the TP, to account for the heterogeneous topography. Preliminary results suggest that the large-scale background flow, characterised by the strength and position of the subtropical westerly jet, is one of the factors determining whether a TPV moves off the TP or not.</p><p>Another important question is how and where moving-off TPVs trigger precipitation. Do TPVs transport moisture from the TP to the downstream regions? Do they move off while already precipitating? Do they trigger precipitation dynamically east of the TP? Results from a case study suggest that the TPV triggers precipitation as it moves over the edge of the TP, which then stays locked to the orography while the system is moving further east. The TPV appears to change the local atmospheric circulation in the Sichuan basin while moving off, thereby directing a flow of moist air towards the eastern slope of the TP.</p><p>Understanding how the combination of the right large-scale atmospheric conditions and a TPV-induced change in the local circulation downstream of the TP can create an impactful TPV may enable improved forecasts of TPVs and their impacts in the densely populated regions downstream of the TP.</p>