Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific

The National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration developed a statistical–dynamical typhoon intensity prediction model for the western North Pacific, the CSTIPS-DAT, using a track-pattern clustering technique. The model led to significant improvements in the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, relatively large errors have been found in a cluster located in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP), mainly because of the large predictand variance. In this study, a decision-tree algorithm was employed to reduce the predictand variance for TCs in the TWNP. The tree predicts the likelihood of a TC reaching a maximum lifetime intensity greater than 70 knots at its genesis. The developed four rules suggest that the pre-existing ocean thermal structures along the track and the latitude of a TC’s position play significant roles in the determination of its intensity. The developed decision-tree classification exhibited 90.0% and 80.5% accuracy in the training and test periods, respectively. These results suggest that intensity prediction with the CSTIPS-DAT can be further improved by developing independent statistical models for TC groups classified by the present algorithm.

Factors of boreal summer latent heat flux variations over the tropical western North Pacific

Surface latent heat flux (LHF) is an important component in the heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP). The present study investigates the factors of seasonal mean LHF variations in boreal summer over the tropical WNP. Seasonal mean LHF is separated into two parts that are associated with low-frequency (> 90-day) and high-frequency (≤ 90-day) atmospheric variability, respectively. It is shown that low-frequency LHF variations are attributed to low-frequency surface wind and sea-air humidity difference, whereas high-frequency LHF variations are associated with both low-frequency surface wind speed and high-frequency wind intensity. A series of conceptual cases are constructed using different combinations of low- and high-frequency winds to inspect the respective effects of low-frequency wind and high-frequency wind amplitude to seasonal mean LHF variations. It is illustrated that high-frequency wind fluctuations contribute to seasonal high-frequency LHF only when their intensity exceeds the low-frequency wind speed under which there is seasonal accumulation of high-frequency LHF. When high-frequency wind intensity is smaller than the low-frequency wind speed, seasonal mean high-frequency LHF is negligible. Total seasonal mean LHF anomalies depend on relative contributions of low- and high-frequency atmospheric variations and have weak interannual variance over the tropical WNP due to cancellation of low- and high-frequency LHF anomalies.

Accumulated Effect of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation Convections over the Tropical Western North Pacific on the Meridional Location of Western Pacific Subtropical High

An extreme northward displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was detected during the boreal mid-late summer (July-August) of 2018, bringing record-breaking heat waves over northern East Asia. Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern India Ocean (NIO) are usually accompanied with a northward shift of the WPSH. However, no prominent NIO SST anomalies were observed during the 2018 boreal summer. It is found that this extreme northward-shifted WPSH event is largely attributed to the accumulated effect of intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) convection anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP). The accumulated effect on the WPSH meridional location is further supported by their significant correlation based on the data since 1979. While the relationship between the NIO SST anomalies and WPSH meridional location has substantially weakened since the late 1990s, the accumulated effect of the tropical WNP ISO convections keeps playing a crucial role in modulating the WPSH meridional displacement. The active WNP ISO activities can stimulates a poleward propagating Rossby wave train, which favors a northward shift of the WPSH. Our results suggest that the accumulated effect of the tropical WNP ISO convections should be considered when predicting the WPSH during the boreal mid-late summer season.

Role of climate variability in the potential predictability of tropical cyclone formation in tropical and subtropical western North Pacific Ocean

The out of phase tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific associated with local low-level wind vorticity anomaly, driven by the remote central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling, is investigated based on the reanalysis and observational data in the period of 1979−2017. TC frequencies in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific appear to be connected to different remote heating/cooling sources and are linked to eastern and central Pacific warming/cooling, which are in turn related to canonical El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki, respectively. TCs formed in subtropics (SfTC) are generally found to be associated with a dipole in wind vorticity anomaly, which is driven by the tropical eastern Pacific warming/cooling. Tropically formed TCs (TfTC) are seen to be triggered by the single-core of wind vorticity anomaly locally associated with the warming/cooling of central and eastern Pacific. The predicted ENSOs and ENSO Modokis, therefore, provide a potential source of seasonal predictability for SfTC and TfTC frequencies.

Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

As one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity, rapid weakening of tropical cyclones [an intensity reduction of 20 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or more over a 24-h period] over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres. This study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) basin during May–October 2000–14. Although less than one-third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical WNP basin south of 25°N, more than 40% of them were associated with monsoon gyres. About 85% of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in September and October. The rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn. The gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33.2 h. Large-scale environmental factors, including sea surface temperature changes, vertical wind shear, and midlevel environmental humidity, are not primary contributors to them, suggesting the possible effect of monsoon gyres on these rapid weakening events by modulating the tropical cyclone structure. This conclusion is conducive to improving operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.

Two Distinctive Processes for Abnormal Spring to Summer Transition over the South China Sea

The period from April to June signifies the transition from spring to summer over the South China Sea (SCS). The present study documents two distinct processes for abnormal spring to summer transition over the SCS. One process is related to large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. During spring of La Niña decaying years, negative SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) and the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) coexist with positive SST anomalies in the tropical western North Pacific. Negative ECP SST anomalies force an anomalous Walker circulation, negative southwestern TIO SST anomalies induce anomalous cross-equatorial flows from there, and positive tropical western North Pacific SST anomalies produce a Rossby wave–type response to the west. Together, they contribute to enhanced convection and an anomalous lower-level cyclone over the SCS, leading to an advanced transition to summer there. The other process is related to regional air–sea interactions around the Maritime Continent. Preceding positive ECP SST anomalies induce anomalous descent around the Maritime Continent, leading to SST increase in the SCS and southeast TIO. An enhanced convection region moves eastward over the south TIO during spring and reaches the area northwest of Australia in May. This enhances descent over the SCS via an anomalous cross-equatorial overturning circulation and contributes to further warming in the SCS. The SST warming in turn induces convection over the SCS, leading to an accelerated transition to summer. Analysis shows that the above two processes are equally important during 1979–2015.