The Response of Cloud-Precipitation Recycling in China to Global Warming

Cloud water is an important geophysical quantity that connects the hydrological and radiation characteristics of climate systems and plays an essential role in the global circulation of the atmosphere, water, and energy. However, compared to the contribution of water vapor to precipitation, the understanding of cloud-precipitation transformation and its climate feedback mechanism remains limited. Based on precipitation and temperature datasets of the National Meteorological Observatory and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite remote sensing products, the evolution characteristics of cloud water resources in China over the last twenty years of the 21st century were evaluated. Significant decreasing trends of −3.3 and −4.89 g/m2 decade-1 were found for both the liquid and ice water path. In humid areas with high precipitation, the cloud water path decreased fast. In semiarid areas with an annual precipitation ranging from 500–800 mm, the decreasing trend of the cloud water path was the lowest. The cloud-water period was calculated to represent the relative changes in clouds and precipitation. The national average cloud-water period in China is approximately 12.4 h, with obvious seasonal changes. Over the last 20 years, the cloud water path in dry regions decreased more slowly than that in wet regions, and the cloud-precipitation efficiency significantly increased, which narrowed the climate difference between the dry and wet regions. Finally, the mechanism of the cloud-water period evolution in the different regions were examined from the perspectives of the dynamic and thermal contributions, respectively. Due to the overall low upward moisture flux (UMF) in the dry region, the response of the cloud-water period to the lower tropospheric stability (LTS) mainly first increased and then decreased, which was the opposite in the wet region. The increase in cloud-precipitation efficiency in the dry region of Northwest China is accompanied by a continuous decrease in LTS. The different configurations of regional UMF and LTS play a crucial role in the evolution of cloud-precipitation, which can be used as a diagnostic basis to predict changes in the precipitation intensity to a certain extent.

Joint cloud water path and rainwater path retrievals from airborne ORACLES observations

This study presents a new algorithm that combines W-band reflectivity measurements from the Airborne Precipitation Radar – third generation (APR-3) passive radiometric cloud optical depth and effective radius retrievals from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) to estimate total liquid water path in warm clouds and identify the contributions from cloud water path (CWP) and rainwater path (RWP). The resulting CWP estimates are primarily determined by the optical depth input, although reflectivity measurements contribute ∼10 %–50 % of the uncertainty due to attenuation through the profile. Uncertainties in CWP estimates across all conditions are 25 % to 35 %, while RWP uncertainty estimates frequently exceed 100 %. Two-thirds of all radar-detected clouds observed during the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign that took place from 2016–2018 over the southeast Atlantic Ocean have CWP between 41 and 168 g m−2 and almost all CWPs (99 %) between 6 to 445 g m−2. RWP, by contrast, typically makes up a much smaller fraction of total liquid water path (LWP), with more than 70 % of raining clouds having less than 10 g m−2 of rainwater. In heavier warm rain (i.e., rain rate exceeding 40 mm h−1 or 1000 mm d−1), however, RWP is observed to exceed 2500 g m−2. CWP (RWP) is found to be approximately 30 g m−2 (7 g m−2) larger in unstable environments compared to stable environments. Surface precipitation is also more than twice as likely in unstable environments. Comparisons against in situ cloud microphysical probe data spanning the range of thermodynamic stability and meteorological conditions encountered across the southeast Atlantic basin demonstrate that the combined APR-3 and RSP dataset enable a robust joint cloud–precipitation retrieval algorithm to support future ORACLES precipitation susceptibility and cloud–aerosol–precipitation interaction studies.

The Impact of Assimilating Satellite-derived Layered Precipitable Water, Cloud Water Path and Radar Data on Short-Range Thunderstorm Forecasts

With the launch of GOES-16 in November 2016, effective utilization of its data in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential to improve high-impact weather (HIWeather) forecasts. In this study, the impact of satellite-derived Layered Precipitable Water (LPW) and Cloud Water Path (CWP) in addition to NEXRAD radar observations on short-term convective scale NWP forecasts are examined using three severe weather cases that occurred in May 2017. In each case, satellite-derived CWP and LPW products and radar observations are assimilated into the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using the NSSL hybrid Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) analysis and forecast system. The system includes two components, the GSI-EnKF system, and a deterministic 3DEnVAR system. This study examines deterministic 0-6 h forecasts launched from the hybrid 3DEnVAR analyses for the three severe weather events. Three types of experiments are conducted and compared: (i) the control experiment (CTRL) without assimilating any data, (ii) the radar experiment (RAD) with the assimilation of radar and surface observations, and (iii) the satellite experiment (RADSAT) with the assimilation of all observations including surface, radar and satellite derived CWP and LPW. The results show that assimilating additional GOES products improves short-range forecasts by providing more accurate initial conditions, especially for moisture and temperature variables.

Joint Cloud Water Path and Rain Water Path Retrievals from ORACLES Observations

This study presents a new algorithm that combines W-band reflectivity measurements from the Airborne Precipitation Radar-3rd generation (APR-3), passive radiometric cloud optical depth and effective radius retrievals from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) to estimate total liquid water path in warm clouds and identify the contributions from cloud water path (CWP) and rainwater path (RWP). The resulting CWP estimates are primarily determined by the optical depth input, although reflectivity measurements contribute ~ 10–50 % of the uncertainty due to attenuation through the profile. Uncertainties in CWP estimates across all conditions are 25 % to 35 %, while RWP uncertainty estimates frequently exceed 100 %. Two thirds of all radar-detected clouds observed during the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign that took place from 2016–2018 over the southeast Atlantic Ocean have CWP between 41 and 168 g m−2 and almost all CWPs (99 %) between 6 to 445 g m−2. RWP, by contrast, typically makes up a much smaller fraction of total liquid water path (LWP) with more than 70 % of raining clouds having less than 10 g m−2 of rainwater. In heavier warm rain (i.e. rain rate exceeding 40 mm h−1 or 1000 mm d−1), however, RWP is observed to exceed 2500 g m−2. CWP (RWP) is found to be approximately 30 g m−2 (7 g m−2) larger in unstable environments compared to stable environments. Surface precipitation is also more than twice as likely in unstable environments. Comparisons against in-situ cloud microphysical probe data spanning the range of thermodynamic stability and meteorological conditions encountered across the southeast Atlantic basin demonstrate that the combined APR-3 and RSP dataset enable a robust joint cloud-precipitation retrieval algorithm to support future ORACLES precipitation susceptibility and cloud–aerosol–precipitation interaction studies.

Evaluation of WRF-DART (ARW v3.9.1.1 and DART Manhattan release) multiphase cloud water path assimilation for short-term solar irradiance forecasting in a tropical environment

Numerical weather prediction models tend to underestimate cloud presence and therefore often overestimate global horizontal irradiance (GHI). The assimilation of cloud water path (CWP) retrievals from geostationary satellites using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) led to improved short-term GHI forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in midlatitudes in case studies. An evaluation of the method under tropical conditions and a quantification of this improvement for study periods of more than a few days are still missing. This paper focuses on the assimilation of CWP retrievals in three phases (ice, supercooled, and liquid) in a 6-hourly cycling procedure and on the impact of this method on short-term forecasts of GHI for Réunion Island, a tropical island in the southwest Indian Ocean. The multilayer gridded cloud properties of NASA Langley's Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) are assimilated using the EnKF of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) Manhattan release (revision 12002) and the advanced research WRF (ARW) v3.9.1.1. The ability of the method to improve cloud analyses and GHI forecasts is demonstrated, and a comparison using independent radiosoundings shows a reduction of specific humidity bias in the WRF analyses, especially in the low and middle troposphere. Ground-based GHI observations at 12 sites on Réunion Island are used to quantify the impact of CWP DA. Over a total of 44 d during austral summertime, when averaged over all sites, CWP data assimilation has a positive impact on GHI forecasts for all lead times between 5 and 14 h. Root mean square error and mean absolute error are reduced by 4 % and 3 %, respectively.