Contrasting effects of rising temperatures on trophic interactions in marine ecosystems

In high-latitude marine environments, primary producers and their consumers show seasonal peaks of abundance in response to annual light cycle, water column stability and nutrient availability. Predatory species have adapted to this pattern by synchronising life-history events such as reproduction with prey availability. However, changing temperatures may pose unprecedented challenges by decoupling the predator-prey interactions. Here we build a predator-prey model accounting for the full life-cycle of fish and zooplankton including their phenology. The model assumes that fish production is bottom-up controlled by zooplankton prey abundance and match or mismatch between predator and prey phenology, and is parameterised based on empirical findings of how climate influences phenology and prey abundance. With this model, we project possible climate-warming effects on match-mismatch dynamics in Arcto-boreal and temperate biomes. We find a strong dependence on synchrony with zooplankton prey in the Arcto-boreal fish population, pointing towards a possible pronounced population decline with warming because of frequent desynchronization with its zooplankton prey. In contrast, the temperate fish population appears better able to track changes in prey timing and hence avoid strong population decline. These results underline that climate change may enhance the risks of predator-prey seasonal asynchrony and fish population declines at higher latitudes.

Have Invasive Mysids (Mysis diluviana) Altered the Capacity of Osoyoos Lake, British Columbia to Produce Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)?

Background:During 2005-13, at Osoyoos Lake, British Columbia, we investigated trophic relationships among fry ofOncorhynchus nerkaWalbaum (Sockeye and kokanee), a suite of limnetic planktivores includingMysis diluviana, and their zooplankton prey.Objectives:Our goal was to quantify the impacts that a recently introduced population ofMysiswould have on density, growth and survival of resident age-0 Sockeye Salmon.Methods:Evidence ofMysisimpact was based on (a) simple correlation analysis between various biophysical performance measures and (b) production and bioenergetics models used to identify the strength of bottom-up (i.e. production-driven) and top-down (i.e.consumption-driven) processes.Results:This nine-year study indicated that the Osoyoos Lake food web was strongly influenced by external events These included: large annual variations in river discharge, an earthen dam failure and effluent input from an Okanagan River tributary, and highly variable recruitment ofO. nerkafry given out-of-basin factors (harvest, marine survival) controlling adult salmon returns. Surprisingly, large annual variations inO. nerkarecruitment (0.63 - 7.0 million fry), did not induce significant “top-down” associations in growth, survival or subsequent production among the macro-planktivores (pelagic fish andMysis) and their zooplankton prey. A single significant correlation (p ≤ 0.05) betweenO. nerkafry abundance and their von BertalanffyW∞parameter emerged from a set of 14 potential top-down associations tested. By contrast, we identified several strongly positive “bottom-up” effects in which survival ofO. nerkafry was significantly associated (p ≤ 0.01) with annual variations in total zooplankton biomass,Daphniabiomass andEpischurabiomass. Our results indicate thatMysisplayed a dual role in the Osoyoos Lake pelagic food web. As predators, they accounted for an average (June-October) of 64% of the total prey biomass consumed by fish andMysis. As prey,Mysiscontributed an average of 35% of the prey biomass consumed by fish. Consumption by fish andMysistogether accounted for daily losses of only 4.5% of non-mysid zooplankton biomass and 34% of daily zooplankton production.Conclusion:We conclude that in all years, combined prey consumption byMysisand fish was never high enough, acting alone, to reduce the availability of their potential zooplankton forage base. However, we also estimate that in the absence ofMysis,O. nerkafry could experience a 43% increase in their daily food intake and that fish andMysismight control their principal prey taxa when exogenous factors (e.g.annual discharge) induced major reductions in zooplankton biomass. Finally, althoughMysishas clearly altered the energy flow pathways from plankton to fish in the Osoyoos Lake food-web, mysids have not precluded rebuildingO. nerkaabundance to levels at or exceeding historic maxima.