PENENTUAN HARGA OPSI BELI ATAS SAHAM PT. ANTAM (PERSERO) MENGGUNAKAN MODEL BINOMIAL FUZZY

Option is a financial instrument where price depends on the underlying stock price. The pricing of options, both selling options and purchase options, may use the CRR (Cox-Ross-Rubinstein) binomial model. Only two possible parameters were used that is u if the stock price rises and d when the stock price down. One of the elements that determine option prices is volatility. In the binomial model CRR volatility is constant. In fact, the financial market price of stocks fluctuates so that volatility also fluctuates. This article discusses volatility of fluctuating stock price movements by modeling it using binomial fuzzy with triangular curve representation. The analysis is carried out in relation to the existence of three interpretations of the triangular curve representation resulting in different degrees of membership. In addition to volatility, this study added the size or risk level ρ. As an illustration, this study used stock price movement data from PT. Antam (Persero) from August 2015 until July 2016. The results of one period obtained from the purchase price option for August 2016 with the largest volatility, medium and smallest respectively were Rp.143,43, Rp.95,49, and Rp.79,00. There was calculated at the risk level of ρ = 90%. The degree of membership for each option price varies depending on the interpretation of the triangle curve representation. Opsi merupakan instrumen keuangan yang harganya tergantung pada harga saham yang mendasarinya. Penentuan harga opsi, baik opsi jual maupun opsi beli dapat menggunakan model binomial CRR (Cox-Ross-Rubinstein). Dalam model ini hanya dimungkinkan adanya dua parameter yaitu u apabila harga saham naik dan d pada saat harga saham turun. Salah satu unsur yang menentukan harga opsi adalah volatilitas. Dalam model binomial CRR digunakan volatilitas yang bersifat konstan. Padahal, pada pasar keuangan pergerakan harga saham mengalami fluktuasi sehingga volatilitas juga menjadi fluktuatif. Artikel ini membahas volatilitas pergerakan harga saham yang fluktuatif dengan memodelkannya menggunakan binomial fuzzy dengan representasi kurva segitiga. Analisis dilakukan terkait dengan adanya tiga interpretasi terhadap representasi kurva segitiga tersebut yang menghasilkan derajat keanggotaan yang berbeda. Selain volatilitas, dalam penelitian ini ditambahkan ukuran atau tingkat risiko ρ. Sebagai ilustrasi, digunakan data pergerakan harga saham PT. Antam (Persero) dari Agustus 2015 hingga Juli 2016. Hasil penelitian dengan perhitungan satu periode diperoleh hasil harga opsi beli untuk bulan Agustus 2016 dengan volatilitas terbesar, menengah, dan terkecil masing-masing adalah Rp.143,43, Rp.95,49, dan Rp.79,00 yang dihitung pada tingkat risiko ρ = 90%. Derajat keanggotaan untuk masing-masing harga opsi berbeda-beda tergantung pada interpretasi dari representasi kurva segitiga.

Diverging Influences of Money Priming on Choice

Prior research on money priming has suggested two seemingly contradicting findings. On the one hand, money has been shown to highlight the importance of cost saving, leading to the choice of a low-quality/low-price option. On the other hand, individuals primed with money as a symbol of social status, and capabilities may focus on social value of money, e.g., higher spending symbolizes higher status and prefer an option with high quality/high price. Current research proposes and demonstrates that whether money priming will lead different choices depends on the nature of the consumption context. Specifically, when the product is to be consumed privately, money priming will highlight the importance of cost, thus increasing the preference for lower price at a lower quality. However, when the product is to be consumed publicly, reversed pattern of consumer preference will be found.

PENERAPAN METODE BINOMIAL TREE DALAM MENGESTIMASI HARGA KONTRAK OPSI TIPE AMERIKA

Binomial tree is a method that can be used to determine price option contracts. In this method, the stock price movement is presented in the form of a tree with each branch representing the probability of the stock price to move up or move down. The purpose of this paper was to determine the price of the options contracts with the American type on Binomial Tree method and compare the three methods that is variance matching, proportional , and risk neutral of determining the value of price option contracts used in Binomial Tree method with Black-Schole method. The result of this research was the value of the options contract using the variance matching more similar with the value of the Black-Scholes contract.

A MOMENT MATCHING APPROACH TO THE VALUATION OF A VOLUME WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OPTION

In this paper we develop a method to find the price of several options whose payoff depends on a volume weighted average price (VWAP). Fixed and floating strike VWAP, together with digital VWAP contracts are considered. Throughout we assume that the stock follows a geometric Brownian motion and the rate of trades evolves as a mean reverting process. It is assumed that the VWAP at the final time has a lognormal distribution. The parameters of the approximating lognormal distribution are obtained by matching the first two moments of the volume weighted average price with a lognormal process. A price is then obtained for the fixed strike and digital options when the market price of risk is a constant. We concentrate on the price for calls, prices for puts can be obtained in an analogous manner.