Stagnation of life expectancy in Korea in 2018: A cause-specific decomposition analysis

According to the most recent annual report released by Korea Statistics, the life expectancy at birth (for both sexes) in 2018 was 82.7 years, an increase of 0.0 years over 2017, reflecting the first stagnation in life expectancy since 1960. In this study, a time-series analysis was conducted of trends in life expectancy from 2003 to 2018, and causes of death were analyzed using the Kannisto-Thatcher method and the Arriaga decomposition method. The time trend analysis of yearly life expectancy changes indicated that, in Korea, there was a tendency for the yearly increase in life expectancy between 2003 and 2018 to decrease by 0.0211 years per calendar year. The contribution of cardiovascular diseases, the most important contributor to the life expectancy increase in Korea, gradually decreased over this period. The contribution of cardiovascular diseases to the life expectancy increase was 0.506 years in 2003–2006, but this contribution decreased to 0.218 years in 2015–2018. The positive contributions of ill-defined causes and external causes to life expectancy increase detected in previous periods were not evident in 2015–2018. Diseases of the respiratory system made the largest negative contribution both between 2015 and 2018 and between 2017–2018. The life expectancy stagnation in 2018 could be understood as the combined effect of (a) decreasing momentum in the increase of life expectancy and (b) a chance event in 2018 involving life expectancy. Currently, it is difficult to judge whether the stagnation of life expectancy in 2018 is temporary, and further analyses of life expectancy and contributing causes of death in the future are needed.

An egalitarian society? Widening inequalities in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases in Australia, 2006-16

Background The recent slowdown in life expectancy increase in Australia has occurred concurrently with widening socioeconomic and geographical inequalities in all-cause mortality risk. We analysed whether, and to what extent, mortality inequalities among specific non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Australia at ages 35–74 years widened during 2006–16. Methods Registered deaths that occurred during 2006–16 in Australia were analysed. Inequalities were measured by area socioeconomic quintile [ranging from Q1 (lowest) to Q5 (highest)] and remoteness (major cities, inner regional, outer regional/remote/very remote). Age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for 35–74 years were calculated and smoothed over time. Results NCD mortality inequalities by area socioeconomic quintile widened; the ratio of Q1 to Q5 ASDR for males increased from 1.96 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91–2.01] in 2011 to 2.08 (2.03–2.13) in 2016, and for females from 1.78 (1.73–1.84) to 1.96 (1.90–2.02). Moreover, Q1 NCD ASDRs did not clearly decline from 2011 to 2016. CVD mortality inequalities were wider than for all NCDs. There were particularly large increases in smoking-related mortality inequalities. In 2016, mortality inequalities were especially high for chronic respiratory diseases, alcohol-related causes and diabetes. NCD mortality rates outside major cities were higher than within major cities, and these differences widened during 2006–16. Higher mortality rates in inner regional areas than in major cities were explained by socioeconomic factors. Conclusions Widening of inequalities in premature mortality rates is a major public health issue in Australia in the context of slowing mortality decline. Inequalities are partly explained by major risk factors for CVDs and NCDs: being overweight or obese, lack of exercise, poor diet and smoking. There is a need for urgent policy responses that consider socioeconomic disadvantage.

Metode Analisis Diskriminan dalam Pengelompokan Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Berdasarkan Indikator Indeks Pembangunan Manusia

Discriminant analysis is a method in multivariat statistic analysis that related with object which have separated into the defined group defined and see the accuracy of the formed group. In this research, clustera analysis is used for the first grouping, cluster analysis is a statistical analysis which aims to classify some objects based on the characteristics similarity among the object. Data for this study is HDI (Human Development Index) of indicator in south sulawesi in 2016. The result of this research are 1st cluster (lower HDI indicator) which have 21 city/ distric and the 2nd cluster (higher HDI indicator) which have 3 city/distric as the closeness value between the cluster that formed is 0.902 which shows the closeness between the cluster is high . Furthermore, the discriminant function that have formed explains that if the life expectancy increase, the HDI indicator in city/distric in south sulawesi province will decrease but if school expectation duration in school , average of duration in school, and parity of pur hasing power is increasing, the HDI indicator in city/distric in aouth sulawesi will also increase.Keywords: Cluster analysis, Discriminant analysis , Human development index indicator.

The Impact of Avoidable Mortality on the Life Expectancy in Bulgarian Population

Mortality due to avoidable causes of death is one of the most often used quality and efficiency indicators for the health care system and the policies of prevention of morbidity and mortality by causes of death due to behavioural or environmental factors. The objective of the article is to study the impact of avoidable mortality including amenable and preventable mortality on the life expectancy in Bulgaria during the period 2005-2012. The classification of avoidable mortality, proposed by the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom in 2011, is used. The methods of decomposing the change in two life expectancies by age and the change in two life expectancies by age according to the causes of death by E. Andreev and E. Arriaga are applied to measure the impact on the change in life expectancy. The main results of the study show that during the period 2005-2012 along with the decrease in the total mortality, also the avoidable mortality has dropped – from 34. 72% to 29. 12% of the mortality due to all causes of death. The avoidable causes’ of death contribution to life expectancy increase is by 1. 20 years and it is considerably greater than those of the other causes. Mortality due to amenable and preventable causes of death is also decreasing. Greater is the effect of the amenable causes of death on the life expectancy increase.

The Impact of Avoidable Mortality on the Life Expectancy in Bulgarian Population

Mortality due to avoidable causes of death is one of the most often used quality and efficiency indicators for the health care system and the policies of prevention of morbidity and mortality by causes of death due to behavioural or environmental factors. The objective of the article is to study the impact of avoidable mortality including amenable and preventable mortality on the life expectancy in Bulgaria during the period 2005-2012. The classification of avoidable mortality, proposed by the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom in 2011, is used. The methods of decomposing the change in two life expectancies by age and the change in two life expectancies by age according to the causes of death by E. Andreev and E. Arriaga are applied to measure the impact on the change in life expectancy. The main results of the study show that during the period 2005-2012 along with the decrease in the total mortality, also the avoidable mortality has dropped – from 34. 72% to 29. 12% of the mortality due to all causes of death. The avoidable causes’ of death contribution to life expectancy increase is by 1. 20 years and it is considerably greater than those of the other causes. Mortality due to amenable and preventable causes of death is also decreasing. Greater is the effect of the amenable causes of death on the life expectancy increase.

MORTALITY DECLINE, RETIREMENT AGE, AND AGGREGATE SAVINGS

We use an overlapping-generations model with endogenous retirement and saving to study the trade-off between saving and retirement age in response to mortality decline. When life expectancy increases by one year, people delay retirement by about four months. With this magnitude of delay in retirement age, the percentage of lifetime spent in working decreases, and people have to save more for postretirement years. Neither the pure form of sole adjustment through savings nor the proportionality hypothesis is consistent with our results, but the proportionality hypothesis is a better rule of thumb in predicting future behavior. Our choice of the modified Boucekkine et al. (2002) survival function gives a convenient one-to-one correspondence between life expectancy increase and a change in the survival parameter.

Demographic characteristics and life satisfaction in settlements of Fruska Gora mountain region: Besenovo case study

Serbia has been facing an economic crisis for the last two decades, which is one of the causes of poor demographic situation in the country. Along with low or negative rates of population growth and ageing of population, the majority of municipalities in Vojvodina have a negative migration balance. Vojvodina is characterized by long-term trend in the decrease of young population and the increase of old population. These two processes are affected by low birth rate and life expectancy increase. The bad economic situation and the ageing of population are especially apparent in mountainous areas and peripherally located settlements. This situation has not bypassed Besenovo, mountainous village of Fruska Gora. Field research and conduction of the questionnaire have found out that the population of this village is not satisfied with the basic living standard.