О КАЛИБРОВКЕ АВТОНОМНОЙ МОДЕЛИ ТУНДРОВОЙ БИОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ПОПУЛЯЦИИ ЛЕММИНГОВ

The paper presents an autonomous model of the biological population of lemmings of a phenomenological type, designed in complex studies of tundra communities. In the model, the dynamics of a population is described through a difference equation relating the population in two neighboring years that depends on three parameters of the biological and ecological genesis. The combination of parameter values included in the equation under consideration determines a class of one-dimensional unimodal mappings of a dynamical system in which the bifurcation properties, asymptotics, and stability of trajectories were analytically and numerically studied. In this paper the main focus is made on model identification criterion. The method of identification sets is proposed to be used for calibration of the model. The identification sets method is based on the approximation and visualization of small-dimensional projections of a multidimensional graph of the error function given in the space of three environmental and two population parameters. This paper describes a case study of model identification using data on the tundra lemming population on the Taimyr Peninsula. It is shown that in this case two biological and ecological parameters allow for stable location distribution.