Added value of the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution downscaling over the Iberian Peninsula revisited. Part II: Max and Min Temperature

In the recent past, the increase of computation resources led to the appearance of regional climate models with increasing domains and resolutions, spamming larger temporal periods. A good example is the World Climate Research Program – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the European domain (EURO-CORDEX). This set of regional models encompass the entire European continent, for a 130-year common period until the end of the 21st century, while having a 12 Km horizontal resolution. Such simulations are computationally demanding, while at the same time, not always showing added value. This study considers a recently proposed metric in order to assess the added value of the EURO-CORDEX Hindcast (1989–2008) and Historical (1971–2005) simulations, for the maximum and minimum temperature over the Iberian Peninsula. This approach allows an evaluation of the higher against the driving lower resolutions relative to the performance of the whole or partial probability density functions, by having an observational regular gridded dataset as reference. Overall, the gains for maximum temperature are more relevant in comparison to minimum temperature, partially owed to known problems derived from the snow-albedo-atmosphere feedback. For more local scales, areas near the coast reveal significant added value in comparison with the interior, which displays limited gains and sometimes significant detrimental effects around −30 %. Nevertheless, the added value for temperature extremes reveals a similar range, although with stronger gains in coastal regions and in locations from the interior for maximum temperature, contrasting with the losses for locations in the interior of the domain for the minimum temperature.

Assessment of techniques to include historical information in flood frequency distributions for hydrological dam safety assessment

<p>Flood peak quantiles for return periods up to 10 000 years are required for dam design and safety assessment, though flood series usually have a record length of around 20-40 years that leads to a high uncertainty. The utility of historical data of flooding is generally recognised for estimating the magnitude of extreme events with return periods in excess of 100 years. Therefore, historical information can be incorporated in flood frequency analyses to reduce uncertainties in high return period flood quantile estimates that are used in hydrological dam safety analyses.</p><p>This study assesses a set of existing techniques to incorporate historical information of flooding in extreme frequency analyses, focusing on their reliability and uncertainty reduction for high return periods that are used for dam safety analysis. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess both the reliability and uncertainty in high return period quantile estimates. Varying lengths in the historical (Nh = 100 and 200 years) and systematic (Ns = 20, 40 and 60 years) periods are considered. In addition, a varying number of known flood magnitudes that exceed a given perception threshold in the historical period are also considered (k = 1-2). The values of Nh, Ns and k used in the study are the most usual in practice.</p><p>The reliability and uncertainty reduction in flood quantile estimates for each technique depend on the statistical properties of flood series. Therefore, a set of feasible combinations of L-coefficient of variation (L-CV) and skewness (L-CS) values should be considered. The analysis aims to understand how each technique behaves in terms of flood quantile reliability and uncertainty reduction depending on the L-moment statistics of flood series. In this study, L-CV and L-CS regional values in the 29 homogeneous regions identified in Spain for developing the national map of flood quantiles by the Centre for Hydrographic Studies of CEDEX are considered.</p><p>The results show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and weighted moments (WM) techniques show the best results in the regions with small L-CS values. However, the biased partial probability weighted moments (BPPWM) technique shows the best results in the regions with high L-CS values. While the expected moments algorithm (EMA) tends to underestimate flood quantiles for high return periods, the unbiased partial probability weighted moments (UPPWM) technique tends to overestimate them. In addition, including historical information of flooding in flood frequency analyses improves flood quantile estimates in most cases regardless the technique that is used. Uncertainty reduction in high return period flood quantile estimates are higher for short systematic time series, regions with high L-CS values and long historical periods.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgments:</strong> This research has been supported by the project SAFERDAMS (PID2019-107027RB-I00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.</p>

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEPUTUSAN ORANG TUA DALAM MEMILIH LEMBAGA PENDIDIKAN (STUDI EMPIRIS PADA SMA IMTEK PAGEDANGAN TANGERANG)

ABSTRAK-Tujuan diadakannya penelitian adalah mengetahui pengaruh lokasi, harga, dan promosi terhadap keputusan orang tua dalam memilih lembaga pendidikan pada SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang. Metode penelitian dengan metode Asosiatif. Sampel digunakan sebanyak 87. Teknik analisis data dengan regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa : 1). Semakin baik tingkat lokasi dari suatu sekolah maka akan membuat peningkatan keputusan orang tua dalam memilih lembaga pendidikan pada SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang terbukti dari probabilitas parsial (0,008 < 0,05). 2). Semakin mahal harga yang ditawarkan oleh pihak sekolah maka akan membuat penurunan keputusan orang tua dalam memilih lembaga pendidikan pada SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang terbukti dari probabilitas parsial (0,000 < 0,05). 3). Semakin baik promosi yang dilakukan oleh pihak sekolah dan semakin gencar maka akan membuat peningkatan keputusan orang tua dalam memilih lembaga pendidikan pada SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang terbukti dari probabilitas parsial (0,000 < 0,05). 4). Semakin baik tingkat lokasi dari suatu sekolah, semakin baik penetapan harga, dan semakin gencar promosi bila dipadukan secara serempak maka akan membuat peningkatan keputusan orang tua dalam memilih lembaga pendidikan pada SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang terbukti dari probabilitas simultan (0,000 < 0,05).Kata Kunci: Lokasi, Harga, Promosi, Keputusan Orang Tua ABSTRACT-The purpose of the research was to determine the effect of location, price, and promotion on parents' decisions in choosing educational institutions at SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang. The research method is the associative method. The sample used was 87. The data analysis technique was multiple linear regression. The results showed that: 1). The better the location level of a school will make an increase in the decision of parents in choosing an educational institution at SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang as evidenced by a partial probability (0.008 <0.05). 2). The more expensive the price offered by the school will make a decrease in the decision of parents in choosing an educational institution at SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang as evidenced by a partial probability (0.000 <0.05). 3). The better the promotion carried out by the school and the more intense it will make an increase in the decision of parents in choosing educational institutions at SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang as evidenced by partial probability (0.000 <0.05). 4). The better the location level of a school, the better the pricing, and the more incessant promotion when combined simultaneously it will make an increase in parents' decisions in choosing educational institutions at SMA IMTEK Pagedangan Tangerang as evidenced by the simultaneous probability (0.000 <0.05).Keywords: Location, Price, Promotion, Parents' Decision

Covariance and Spinorial Statistical Description of Simple Relativistic Stochastic Kinematics

It is shown that Generalized Poisson–Kac processes are closed with respect to Lorentz transformations, providing a class of covariant kinematic processes. The transformation properties of the associated partial probability densities (waves) display spinorial character in a probability space, and their spinorial character is intrinsically related to the parametrization of the internal degrees of freedom of the process. Parity function analysis associated with the bias induced in the partial-wave recombination process by a Lorentz boost, indicates a symmetry breaking in the recombination dynamics. In an inertial reference frame moving with constant velocity [Formula: see text] with respect to the rest frame of the process, stochastic fluctuations are progressively damped out till complete suppression in the limit for [Formula: see text].

Analisis Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Kebijakan Dividen, Pertumbuhan Perusahaan Dan Struktur Aktiva Terhadap Struktur Modal

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of Profitability (ROE), Liquidity (CR), Dividend Policy (DPR), Growth (Sales Growth) , Asset Structure of the Capital Structure (DER). This study population is listed manufacturing industry in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2010-2014. The method of analysis used in this study is a quantitative method with the statistical analysis of panel data regression. Using Capital Structure as variable dependent and Profitability, Liquidity, Dividend Policy, Growth, Asset Structure as independent variables. Results of the study showed partial Probability (ROE) and Liquidity (CR) significant on the Capital Structure (DER). Dividend Policy (DPR), Growth (sales growth) and Asset Structure not influence significantly to the Capital Structure (DER). Profitability (ROE), Liquidity (CR), Dividend Policy (DPR) , Growth (Sales Growth) and Asset Structure simultaneously significant on the Capital Structure (DER).

Risk-Based Operations Assessment of a Multilayered Vessel Under Cyclic Loading Conditions

Operational risks have been evaluated for a multilayered vessel through the fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment. The vessel has been in service for more than four decades and is subjected to cyclic mechanical and thermal loads during normal operations. Leakage has been found over the years by inspections, which led to safety concerns for continued operation. FFS assessment was used to evaluate the condition of the vessel to determine if the vessel was fit for continued operation and the associated risks for a catastrophic type failure or burst of all layers of the vessel. Finite element analysis and fatigue evaluation, with associated partial probability, were conducted for the assessment. The operational risks were evaluated on the combined basis of FFS assessment results, failure modes, and field inspection findings. It was concluded that, despite of the problems found during inspections, risks for the catastrophic type failure of the multilayered vessel are very low and continued operation with appropriate monitoring and maintenance is recommended.

Irrelevant and independent natural extension for sets of desirable gambles

The results in this paper add useful tools to the theory of sets of desirable gambles, a growing toolbox for reasoning with partial probability assessments. We investigate how to combine a number of marginal coherent sets of desirable gambles into a joint set using the properties of epistemic irrelevance and independence. We provide formulas for the smallest such joint, called their independent natural extension, and study its main properties. The independent natural extension of maximal coherent sets of desirable gambles allows us to define the strong product of sets of desirable gambles. Finally, we explore an easy way to generalise these results to also apply for the conditional versions of epistemic irrelevance and independence. Having such a set of tools that are easily implemented in computer programs is clearly beneficial to fields, like AI, with a clear interest in coherent reasoning under uncertainty using general and robust uncertainty models that require no full specification.

Risk-Based Operations Assessment of a Multilayered Vessel Under Cyclic Loading Conditions

Operational risks have been evaluated for a multilayered vessel through the fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment. The vessel has been in service for more than four decades and is subjected to cyclic mechanical and thermal loads during normal operations. Leakage has been found over the years by inspections, which led to safety concerns for continued operation. FFS assessment was used to evaluate the condition of the vessel to determine if the vessel was fit for continued operation and the associated risks for a catastrophic type failure or burst of all layers of the vessel. Finite element analysis and fatigue evaluation, with associated partial probability, were conducted for the assessment per API 579. The operational risks were evaluated on the combined basis of FFS assessment results, failure modes, and field inspection findings. It was concluded that, despite of the problems found during inspections, risks for the catastrophic type failure of the multilayered vessel are very low and continued operation with appropriate monitoring and maintenance is recommended.