Experimental forecast of thermal conditions in the South Kuril region in summer by modified Fourier method

Time series of air temperature and sea surface temperature in South Kuril region in July and August are extrapolated to 2020–2024 using modified method of Fourier decomposition. Both cyclic harmonic components and linear trend are accounted. Two main cycles with period of 2 years and 6–7 years dominate in variability of air temperature anomaly (in Wakkanai, Abashiri, Nemuro) and sea surface temperature anomaly (at Кurilsk, Yuzhno-Kurilsk, Malokurilskoe, in the area of Soya Current, and in the area southeastward from Hokkaido), as well as in variability of AT 500 hPa height in the regional centers of atmospheric action, as Far-Eastern depression and Okhotsk anticyclone.