Performance Assessment Across Different Care Settings of A Novel Heart Failure Hospitalisation Risk Score For Type 2 Diabetes Patients Developed Using Administrative Claims Only

Predicting the risk of cardiovascular complications, in particular heart failure hospitalisation (HHF), can improve the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Most predictive models proposed so far rely on clinical data not available at the higher Institutional level. Therefore, it is of interest to assess the risk of HHF in people with T2D using administrative claims data only, which are more easily obtainable and could allow public health systems to identify high-risk individuals. In this paper, the administrative claims of >175,000 patients with T2D were used to develop a new risk score for HHF based on Cox regression. Internal validation on the administrative data cohort yielded satisfactory results in terms of discrimination (max AUROC=0.792, C-index=0.786) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p-value<0.05). The risk score was then tested on data gathered from two independent centers (one diabetes outpatient clinic and one primary care network) to demonstrate its applicability to different care settings in the medium-long term. Thanks to the large size and broad demographics of the administrative dataset used for training, the proposed model was able to predict HHF without significant performance loss concerning bespoke models developed within each setting using more informative, but harder-to-acquire clinical variables.

Heart rate and adverse outcomes in patients with prevalent atrial fibrillation

ObjectiveThe optimal target heart rate in patients with prevalent atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well defined. The aim of this study was to analyse the associations between heart rate and adverse outcomes in a large contemporary cohort of patients with prevalent AF.MethodsFrom two prospective cohort studies, we included stable AF outpatients who were in AF on the baseline ECG. The main outcome events assessed during prospective follow-up were heart failure hospitalisation, stroke or systemic embolism and death. The associations between heart rate and adverse outcomes were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression models.ResultsThe study population consisted of 1679 patients who had prevalent AF at baseline. Mean age was 74 years, and 24.6% were women. The mean heart rate on the baseline ECG was 78 (±19) beats per minute (bpm). The median follow-up was 3.9 years (IQR 2.2–5.0). Heart rate was not significantly associated with heart failure hospitalisation (adjusted HR (aHR) per 10 bpm increase, 1.00, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.07, p=0.95), stroke or systemic embolism (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.07, p=0.38) or death (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.09, p=0.66). There was no evidence of a threshold effect for heart rates <60 bpm or >100 bpm.ConclusionsIn this large contemporary cohort of outpatients with prevalent AF, we found no association between heart rate and adverse outcome events. These data are in line with recommendations that strict heart rate control is not needed in otherwise stable outpatients with AF.

Telomere length is independently associated with all-cause mortality in chronic heart failure

ObjectivePatients with heart failure have shorter mean leucocyte telomere length (LTL), a marker of biological age, compared with healthy subjects, but it is unclear whether this is of prognostic significance. We therefore sought to determine whether LTL is associated with outcomes in patients with heart failure.MethodsWe measured LTL in patients with heart failure from the BIOSTAT-CHF Index (n=2260) and BIOSTAT-CHF Tayside (n=1413) cohorts. Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed individually in each cohort and the estimates combined using meta-analysis. Our co-primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and heart failure hospitalisation.ResultsIn age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, shorter LTL was associated with higher all-cause mortality in both cohorts individually and when combined (meta-analysis HR (per SD decrease in LTL)=1.16 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.24); p=2.66×10−5), an effect equivalent to that of being four years older. The association remained significant after adjustment for the BIOSTAT-CHF clinical risk score to account for known prognostic factors (HR=1.12 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.20); p=1.04×10−3). Shorter LTL was associated with both cardiovascular (HR=1.09 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.19); p=0.047) and non-cardiovascular deaths (HR=1.18 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.32); p=4.80×10−3). There was no association between LTL and heart failure hospitalisation (HR=0.99 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.07); p=0.855).ConclusionIn patients with heart failure, shorter mean LTL is independently associated with all-cause mortality.

Intravenous iron for heart failure with evidence of iron deficiency: a meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background The recent AFFIRM-AHF trial assessing the effect of intravenous (IV) iron on outcomes in patients hospitalised with worsening heart failure who had iron deficiency (ID) narrowly missed its primary efficacy endpoint of recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure (HHF) or cardiovascular (CV) death. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine whether these results were consistent with previous trials. Methods We searched for randomised trials of patients with heart failure investigating the effect of IV iron vs placebo/control groups that reported HHF and CV mortality from 1st January 2000 to 5th December 2020. Seven trials were identified and included in this analysis. A fixed effect model was applied to assess the effects of IV iron on the composite of first HHF or CV mortality and individual components of these. Results Altogether, 2,166 patients were included (n = 1168 assigned to IV iron; n = 998 assigned to control). IV iron reduced the composite of HHF or CV mortality substantially [OR 0.73; (95% confidence interval 0.59–0.90); p = 0.003]. Outcomes were consistent for the pooled trials prior to AFFIRM-AHF. Whereas first HHF were reduced substantially [OR 0.67; (0.54–0.85); p = 0.0007], the effect on CV mortality was uncertain but appeared smaller [OR 0.89; (0.66–1.21); p = 0.47]. Conclusion Administration of IV iron to patients with heart failure and ID reduces the risk of the composite outcome of first heart failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular mortality, but this outcome may be driven predominantly by an effect on HHF. At least three more substantial trials of intravenous iron are underway. Graphic abstract

Abstract 15659: Dynamic Device Derived Heart Failure Risk Score as a Predictor of Heart Failure Hospitalisation

Introduction: The number of people being admitted to hospital in England due to heart failure (HF) has risen by a third in the last five years. Implantable cardiac devices with integrated heart failure diagnostics are capable of combining daily measurements of multiple device-derived parameters and provide a heart failure risk score (HFRS) which might help predict HF worsening. Methods: Between 2015 and 2019 231 consecutive HF device patients were co-managed (CM) by specialist HF nurses in a tertiary centre. Follow-up was truncated at last device transmission in 2019. HF nurses’ interventions to alerts were recorded prospectively. HF-related hospitalisations were collected from hospital records. We analysed the predictive value of baseline variables on the count of days in high HFRS in a negative binomial regression model. The device settings: Optivol CareAlert switched ON vs OFF were compared. Results: 200 patients with CRT-D were followed up for 2.6 [1.0-2.8] years (Figure). Baseline characteristics and their effect on the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of days in high HFRS are presented in Table. A total of 3,486 transmissions were assessed, median 7.3 [5.9-10.0] per patient-year; 591 high HFRS episodes occurred in 115 (58%) pts. Optivol OFF increased the rate of high HFRS being transmitted >30 days after its end (45% vs 35%, P=0.018) and increased the time from episode start to transmission (36 [16-68] vs 24 [8-53] days, P<0.001). Of 21 hospitalisations for decompensated HF, 15 were predicted by high HFRS within 30 days whereas 6 were predated by medium HFRS. Conclusion: Patients who have not had a single high HFRS during follow-up did not need admission for decompensated HF.