On Possible Macro Consequences of Society Aging: Economic and Statistical Analysis on the Basis of National Transfer Accounts

The article discusses research results of socio-economic challenges in modern society using selected international statistics and presented in the format of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) as a follow-up to the author’s prior publications in the journal «Voprosy Statistiki» (Issues 4 and 11 of 2019; Issue 5 of 2020). Introduction to the article rationalizes the subject matter topicality both given the pressing problem of ageing of modern society and in connection with the necessity of practical adoption of National Transfer Accounts in the system of Russian statistics as a coherent derivation and elaboration of the System of National Accounts (SNA), expanding analytical capabilities of statistics. Going into the main part of the article, the author applies statistical methods to explore the key macroeconomic consequences of the global ageing of modern societies. The article provides evidence that macroeconomic challenges and risks to sustainable development emerge primarily in the countries featuring low birth rates, a high share of seniors, and significant levels of government support to the households. The author studies how shifts in the population age distribution translate into changes in consumer spending and incomes. The article presents and analyzes initial findings of the quantitative evaluation of these correlations based on historical data on healthcare expenditures and per capita labor income. The paper identifies the factors and the extent of their impact on how people choose the economic behavior model that ultimately determines the volume and structure of consumption in high inflation economies. Finally, the article lays down a number of conclusions to the following essence: (1) empirical estimates confirm the hypothesis that ageing society presents a heavier «economic burden» for the government finances rather than for the economy as a whole and (2) further advances in macro-statistic work (SNA core sections, National Transfer Accounts, satellite accounts within SNA) become increasingly important for expanding analytical capabilities required to seek for a more effective mechanism to build-up and utilize national resources in the face of population ageing.

Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia

The present study first examines the trends in age structural shifts in selected Asian economies over the period 1950–2050 and analyzes their impact on economic growth in terms of the first and second demographic dividends computed from the system of National Transfer Accounts. Then, using the National Transfer Accounts, we analyze the effect of the age structural shifts on the pattern of intergenerational transfers in Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. A brief comparison of the results reveals that, in the next few decades, the latter two are likely to follow in Japan's footsteps by increasing public transfers and asset reallocations, and by reducing familial transfers, particularly among older persons. Next, we consider a newly defined demographic dividend, which is generated through the use of the untapped work capacity of healthy older persons and to which we refer as “the silver” or “the third” demographic dividend. By drawing upon microlevel datasets obtained from Japan and Malaysia, we calculate the magnitude of the impact of that dividend on macroeconomic growth in each of the two economies, concluding that while in Japan the expected effect is substantial, in Malaysia it will take several decades before the country can enjoy comparable benefits.

DEKOMPOSISI AGE PROFILE PENGELUARAN KESEHATAN DAN KETERKAITANNYA DENGAN PANDEMI COVID-19

Pandemi Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) menyebabkan fokus perhatian tertuju pada sektor kesehatan. Pemerintah mengalokasikan anggaran penanganan pandemi COVID-19 sebesar 677,2 triliun Rupiah, di mana 87,55 triliun Rupiah diantaranya diperuntukkan untuk sektor kesehatan. Belanja kesehatan penduduk selama pandemi COVID-19 pun turut mengalami perubahan karena penurunan pendapatan masyarakat dan prioritas kebutuhan pada kesehatan. Adanya kelompok usia rentan dan tidak rentan dan transfer belanja kesehatan dari pemerintah diperkirakan akan mengubah pola pengeluaran pendapatan secara privat dan publik serta menurut kelompok usia. Salah satu instrumen yang dapat digunakan untuk menggambarkan perubahan ini adalah age profile pengeluaran kesehatan sebagai bagian dari Life Cycle Deficit pada neraca National Transfer Accounts (NTA). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah hasil Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (Susenas) 2018 dan kasus COVID-19 per tanggal 18 Agustus 2020. Metode estimasi age profile menggunakan metode langsung dengan teknik smoothing Friedman’s Super Smoother. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa age profile pengeluaran kesehatan di Indonesia berbentuk seperti lembah dan bukit, di mana puncak konsumsi berada pada rentang usia lanjut (66-82 tahun). Rentang usia lanjut tersebut tergolong kelompok usia rentan yang juga tercatat menjadi kelompok dengan kasus meninggal akibat COVID-19 yang cukup tinggi. Selain itu, pandemi COVID-19 juga berpotensi memengaruhi age profile pengeluaran kesehatan penduduk pada tahun 2020, di mana dampak tertinggi akan dirasakan pada kelompok usia 19-30 tahun.