A connectivity portfolio effect stabilizes marine reserve performance

Well-managed and enforced no-take marine reserves generate important larval subsidies to neighboring habitats and thereby contribute to the long-term sustainability of fisheries. However, larval dispersal patterns are variable, which leads to temporal fluctuations in the contribution of a single reserve to the replenishment of local populations. Identifying management strategies that mitigate the uncertainty in larval supply will help ensure the stability of recruitment dynamics and minimize the volatility in fishery catches. Here, we use genetic parentage analysis to show extreme variability in both the dispersal patterns and recruitment contribution of four individual marine reserves across six discrete recruitment cohorts for coral grouper (Plectropomus maculatus) on the Great Barrier Reef. Together, however, the asynchronous contributions from multiple reserves create temporal stability in recruitment via a connectivity portfolio effect. This dampening effect reduces the variability in larval supply from individual reserves by a factor of 1.8, which effectively halves the uncertainty in the recruitment contribution of individual reserves. Thus, not only does the network of four marine reserves generate valuable larval subsidies to neighboring habitats, the aggregate effect of individual reserves mitigates temporal fluctuations in dispersal patterns and the replenishment of local populations. Our results indicate that small networks of marine reserves yield previously unrecognized stabilizing benefits that ensure a consistent larval supply to replenish exploited fish stocks.

Intra-Specific variability in fluctuating environments - mechanisms of impact on species diversity

Recent studies have found considerable trait variations within species. The effect of such intra-specific trait variability (ITV) on the stability, coexistence and diversity of ecological communities received considerable attention and in many models it was shown to impede coexistence and decrease species diversity. Here we present a numerical study of the effect of genetically inherited ITV on species persistence and diversity in a temporally fluctuating environment. Two mechanisms are identified. First, ITV buffers populations against varying environmental conditions (portfolio effect) and reduces abundance variations. Second, the interplay between ITV and environmental variations tends to increase the mean fitness of diverse populations. The first mechanism promotes persistence and tends to increase species richness, while the second reduces the chance of a rare species population (which is usually homogenous) to invade and decreases species richness. We show that for large communities the portfolio effect is dominant, leading to ITV promoting species persistence and richness.

High Level Inventory Network Modeling Approaches

Over the last several decades, practitioners have used the Square Root of N (SQRTN) and the Portfolio Effect models to develop estimates of the change in finished goods inventory investment that will result from potential consolidations of existing supply chain networks. The relative simplicity of these two models has made them commonly used tools of consultants and practitioners. However, what is often overlooked or ignored in practice is that these models may or may not provide accurate projections, and that there are limitations to the range of problems which these models can address. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of projections made by the SQRTN and portfolio effect models under a variety of network conditions, and we provide guidance on when and how practitioners can both use and supplement these models. Our evaluations are based on the results of simulation studies which we conducted for this paper as well as many years of inventory management practice in private industry.

Weakening portfolio effect strength in a hatchery-supplemented Chinook salmon population complex

Biocomplexity contributes to asynchronous population dynamics, buffering stock complexes in temporally variable environments, a phenomenon referred to as a “portfolio effect”. We previously revealed a weakened but persistent portfolio effect in California’s Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), despite considerable degradation and loss of habitat. Here, we further explore the timing of changes in variability and synchrony and relate these changes to factors hypothesized to influence variability in adult abundance, including hatchery release practices and environmental variables. We found evidence for increasing synchrony among fall-run populations that coincided temporally with increased off-site hatchery releases into the estuary but not with increased North Pacific environmental variability (measured by North Pacific Gyre Oscillation), nor were common trends well explained by a suite of environmental covariates. Moreover, we did not observe a simultaneous increase in synchrony in the nearby Klamath–Trinity system, where nearly all hatchery releases are on-site. Wavelet analysis revealed that variability in production was higher and at a longer time period later in the time series, consistent with increased environmental forcing and a shift away from dynamics driven by natural spawners.