Decision Support Model for Ecological Operation of Reservoirs Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

In this study, a model was proposed based on the sustainable boundary approach, to provide decision support for reservoir ecological operation with the dynamic Bayesian network. The proposed model was developed in four steps: (1) calculating and verifying the sustainable boundaries in combination with the ecological objectives of the study area, (2) generating the learning samples by establishing an optimal operation model and a Monte Carlo simulation model, (3) establishing and training a dynamic Bayesian network by learning the examples and (4) calculating the probability of the economic and ecological targets exceeding the set threshold from time to time with the trained dynamic Bayesian network model. Using the proposed model, the water drawing of the reservoir can be adjusted dynamically according to the probability of the economic and ecological targets exceeding the set threshold during reservoir operation. In this study, the proposed model was applied to the middle reaches of Heihe River, the effect of water supply proportion on the probability of the economic target exceeding the set threshold was analyzed, and the response of the reservoir water storage in each period to the probability of the target exceeding the set threshold was calculated. The results show that the risks can be analyzed with the proposed model. Compared with the existing studies, the proposed model provides guidance for the ecological operation of the reservoir from time to time and technical support for the formulation of reservoir operation chart. Compared with the operation model based on the designed guaranteed rate, the reservoir operation model based on uncertainty reduces the variation range of ecological flow shortage or the overflow rate and the economic loss rate by 5% and 6%, respectively. Thus, it can be seen that the decision support model based on the dynamic Bayesian network can effectively reduce the influence of water inflow and rainfall uncertainties on reservoir operation.

Catch–quota matching allowances balance economic and ecological targets in a fishery managed by individual transferable quota

Fishers with individual catch quota, but limited control over the mix of species caught, depend on trade and catch–quota balancing allowances to fully utilize their quota without discarding. However, these allowances can theoretically lead to overfishing if total allowable catches (TACs) are consistently exceeded. This study investigates usage of balancing allowances by the Icelandic demersal fleet over 2001–2017, for over 1,900 vessels. When a vessel’s demersal catch exceeds owned and leased quota for a given species, the gap can be bridged by borrowing quota from the subsequent fishing period or transforming unutilized quota in other species, restricted by limits. Conversely, excess quota can be saved or transformed into quota for species where there is a shortfall. We found evidence that balancing behavior is frequently similar across the fleet. Transformations are consistent with indicators of a general quota shortage and potential for arbitrage caused by differences in conversion ratios used for transformation and lease prices. Larger companies contribute more to these patterns. Nevertheless, TAC overages are generally modest especially in recent years—key reasons appear to be the tightening of vessel transformation limits and the central role of Atlantic cod, which is the main target species but cannot be persistently overfished due to a specific prohibition on positive transformations into the species. These results show how the tailored design of the Icelandic catch–quota balancing system has helped in balancing economic and ecological goals of management. We suggest policy changes that could further reduce ecological risks, e.g., prioritizing between-year transfers over transformations.

The cost of enforcing a marine protected area to achieve ecological targets for the recovery of fish biomass

Protected areas are the primary management tool for conserving ecosystems, yet their intended outcomes may often be compromised by poaching. Consequently, many protected areas are ineffective ‘paper parks’ that contribute little towards conserving ecosystems. Poaching can be prevented through enforcement and engaging with community members so they support protected areas. It is not clear how much needs to be spent on enforcement and engagement to ensure they are frequent enough to be effective at conserving biodiversity. We develop models of enforcement against illegal fishing in marine protected areas. We apply the models to data on fishing rates and fish biomass from a marine protected area in Raja Ampat, Indonesia and explore how frequent enforcement patrols need to be to achieve targets for coral reef fish biomass. Achieving pristine levels of reef fish biomass required almost year-round enforcement of the protected area. Surveillance of the protected area may also be enhanced if local fishers who support the reserve report on poaching. The opportunity for local fishing boats to participate in surveillance was too small for it to have much benefit for total reef fish biomass, which increases slowly. However, specific functional groups of fish have much higher population growth rates and their biomass was predicted to increase markedly with community surveillance. We conclude that budgets for park management must balance the cost of conducting frequent patrols against supporting alternative activities, like education to build community support. Optimized budgets will be much more likely to achieve ecological targets for recovering fish biomasses and will contribute to fiscal sustainability of protected areas.

Phytoplankton-based recovery requirement for urban lakes in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive’s ecological targets

This study focused on the determination of the phytoplankton-based recovery requirement, including bloom intensity thresholds in human-affected lakes, helpful in the restoration. The phytoplankton and physicochemical analyses were carried out on seven urban lakes in Kartuzy and Skępe. The Phytoplankton Metric for Polish Lakes was used to assess the ecological status and the Trophic Level Index was used to determine the trophic state. Only one lake had a good ecological status (meeting the WFD requirements for at least good status), whereas other lakes had poor or bad ecological status. All of them were eutrophic or hyper-eutrophic and the summer phytoplankton assemblages were dominated mainly by bloomforming cyanobacteria. The lowest phytoplankton bloom threshold of 2.6 mm

Principles of designing secondary channels along the river rhine for the benefit of ecological restoration

Secondary channels present a favourable opportunity for ecological restoration of the River Rhine and its branches. However, they have to be fitted into the landscape without affecting existing interests such as inland shipping and protection against flooding. Also the ecological targets have to be met with a minimum of human interference. In this article some design principles for secondary channels are presented in which these aspects are taken into account. To avoid silting up of the secondary channel it is recommended to prevent sediment from entering the channel at all. Flow velocities have to be below the threshold value for initiation of motion of sediment, but still high enough to satisfy the ecological targets. The secondary channel discharge is a function of the maximum allowable aggradation of the main channel. Discharge and flow velocities together determine the required cross-sectional area and thus the design value of the bank slopes. In order to have flowing water in the secondary channel all year round, the thalweg level is to be chosen on the basis of the water level frequency curve of the main channel.