ЕSTIMATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC BURDEN OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE FOR A 5-YEAR PERIOD: A REGIONAL ASPECT

The aim of the study was to estimate the economic damage by COPD, including direct medical and non-medical costs and indirect costs associated with premature deaths of working-age individuals.Materials and methods. First, estimation of the economic COPD burden in Astrakhan region (AR) was carried out using the clinical and economic analysis of the "cost of illness" (COI). Direct medical costs of inpatient, outpatient, ambulance and emergency medical care, as well as direct non-medical costs associated with the disability benefits payments, were taken into account. Indirect costs were defined as economic losses from undelivered products due to premature deaths of working-age individuals.Results. From 2015 to 2019, the economic COPD burden in AR amounted to 757.11 million rubles in total, which is equivalent to 0.03% of the gross regional product covering a five-year period of the study. Direct medical and non-medical costs totaled 178.02 million rubles. In the structure of direct medical expenses, expenses for inpatient, as well as ambulance and emergency medical care during the study period, increased by 92.5% and 45.5%, respectively. While the costs for the outpatient care decreased by 31.9%, the increase in direct non-medical costs associated with the disability benefits payments, increased by 5.1% (2019). Indirect losses amounted to 579.09 million rubles.Conclusion. The structure of the main damage is dominated by indirect losses in the economy associated with premature deaths of working-age individuals. In the structure of direct medical costs, inpatient care costs prevailed. These studies indicate the need to continue an advanced analysis of the economic burden of COPD, as well as to optimize the treatment and prevention of the exacerbations development of this disease.

Fragmentation of production amplifies systemic risks from extreme events in supply-chain networks

Climatic and other extreme events threaten the globalized economy, which relies on increasingly complex and specialized supply-chain networks. Disasters generate (i) direct economic losses due to reduced production in the locations where they occur, and (ii) to indirect losses from the supply shortages and demand changes that cascade along the supply chains. Firms can use inventories to reduce their risk of shortages. Since firms are interconnected through the supply chain, the level of inventory hold by one firm influences the risk of shortages of the others. Such interdependencies lead to systemic risks in supply chain networks. We introduce a stylized model of complex supply-chain networks in which firms adjust their inventory to maximize profit. We analyze the resulting risks and inventory patterns using evolutionary game theory. We report the following findings. Inventories significantly reduce disruption cascades and indirect losses at the expense of a moderate increase in direct losses. The more fragmented a supply chain is, the less beneficial it is for individual firms to maintain inventories, resulting in higher systemic risks. One way to mitigate such systemic risks is to prescribe inventory sizes to individual firms—a measure that could, for instance, be fostered by insurers. We found that prescribing firm-specific inventory sizes based on their position in the supply chain mitigates systemic risk more effectively than setting the same inventory requirements for all firms.

Disaster Economic Loss and Income

Disaster assessment is quite complicated considering the nature of the disaster and methodological ambiguity generated due to different guidelines of different institutions. This study analyzed various available techniques and, after that, proposed a model to estimate both direct and indirect losses with a single equation. The study used multidisciplinary tools and techniques to assess the 2017 flood in a micro-level area in Bangladesh. The analysis found that the flood inundating around 78.37% of the area, damaged crops, and various infrastructures. The cost of damages accounts for 2.44% of the income of the people, whereas they experience a 21.49% reduction in their yearly income. The study explains how a flood creates obstacles in accessing land, labor, and capital in such a way that people experience significant losses in their income, beyond the damage. Hence, if these access factors can be kept operating during any disaster, a huge amount of loss can be avoided. The study at the end proposed a solution to overcome such losses.

The Performance of Seven Molecular Methods for the Detection of PRRSV

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome is a viral disease of swine characterized by reproductive failure of breeding animals and respiratory disorders in all categories. The first PRRS case in Serbia was recorded in 2001 after illegal import of boar semen. PRRS is economically the most important disease due to significant direct and indirect losses. Today, for routine diagnosis of PRRS in infected herds serological methods (ELISA) and molecular methods are used. Although modern diagnostic techniques are very robust, exceptional diversity of the viral strains is often the obstacle for an accurate diagnosis. To estimate the performance of seven different methods for PRRSV genome detection, twenty samples were used. However, none of the methods was able to detect all PRRSV strains. The best sensitivity was obtained by combining two methods. Until today, there is no absolutely accurate test which enables the detection of all circulating strains.

Direct and indirect losses determining the harmfulness of mushrooms p. Fusarium – fusariosis causes wheat speak and grain

Fungi p. Fusarium is one of the most harmful pathogens of wheat diseases. Their harmfulness is caused both by direct losses due to decrease in yield, and indirect as a result of infection of the obtained products with mycotoxins and decrease in process, baking and sowing parameters of grain. Due to high potential losses, analysis of quantitative parameters of harmfulness of fusarium pathogens of spike and grain is relevant. The paper presents data showing the harmfulness of Fusarium of spike and wheat grain. The causes of direct and indirect losses in case of damage to wheat spike by fungi of p. Fusarium. Direct losses of crop yield are shown in the natural conditions of Minsk region and with the epiphytotic development of the disease in case of artificial infection, which can reach over 50 %. The effect of Fusaria on baking properties of wheat is analyzed. It was determined that grain damage causes decrease in weight of 1000 grains and the flour yield when it is used in the milling industry, as well as deterioration in its quality due to decrease in protein and crude gluten level. The effect of pathogens on sowing parameters of grain is determined. It is concluded that for use as seeds in terms of laboratory germination capacity, batches of grain infected with Fusarium only up to 15 % can be accepted. The data obtained will allow us to adapt protective measures against Fusarium of spike and grain and reduce its negative impact on crop yield and quality of the products obtained.