Subantarctic Mode Water and its long-term change in CMIP6 models

The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is a major water mass in the South Indian and Pacific oceans and plays an important role in the ocean uptake and anthropogenic heat and carbon. The characteristics, formation, and long-term evolution of the SAMW are investigated in the “historical” and “SSP245” scenario simulations of the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Defined by the low potential vorticity, the simulated SAMW is consistently thinner, shallower, lighter, and warmer than in observations, due to biases in the winter mixed layer properties and spatial distribution. The biases are especially large in the South Pacific Ocean. The winter mixed layer bias can be attributed to unrealistic heat loss and stratification in the models. Nevertheless, the SAMW is presented better in the CMIP6 than CMIP5, regarding its volume, location, and physical characteristics. In warmer climate, the simulated SAMW in the South Indian Ocean consistently becomes lighter in density, with a reduced volume and a southward shift in the subduction region. The reduced heat loss, instead of the increased Ekman pumping induced by the poleward intensified westerly wind, dominates in the SAMW change. The winter mixed layer shoals in the northern outcrop region and the SAMW subduction shifts southward where the mixed layer remains deep. The projected reduction of the SAMW volume is likely to impact the heat and freshwater redistribution in the Southern Ocean.

The Origin and Fate of Subantarctic Mode Water in the Southern Ocean

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) forms in deep mixed layers just north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in winter, playing a fundamental role in the ocean uptake of heat and carbon. Using a gridded Argo product and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for years 2004-2018, the seasonal evolution of the SAMW volume is analyzed using both a kinematic estimate of the subduction rate and a thermodynamic estimate of the air-sea formation rate. The seasonal SAMW volume changes are separately estimated within the monthly mixed layer and in the interior below it. We find that the variability of SAMW volume is dominated by changes in SAMW volume in the mixed layer. The seasonal variability of SAMW volume in the mixed layer is governed by formation due to air-sea buoyancy fluxes (45%, lasting from July to August), entrainment (35%), and northward Ekman transport across the Subantarctic Front (10%). The interior SAMW formation is entirely controlled by exchanges between the mixed layer and the interior (i.e. instantaneous subduction), which occurs mainly during August-October. The annual mean subduction estimate from a Lagrangian approach shows strong regional variability with hotspots of large SAMW subduction. The SAMW subduction hotspots are consistent with the distribution and export pathways of SAMW over the central and eastern parts of the south Indian and Pacific Oceans. Hotspots in the south Indian Ocean produce strong subduction of 8 and 9 Sv for the light and southeast Indian SAMW, respectively, while SAMW subduction of 6 and 4 Sv occurs for the central and southeast Pacific SAMW, respectively.

Spiciness Anomalies of Subantarctic Mode Water in the South Indian Ocean

This study investigates spreading and generation of spiciness anomalies of the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) located on 26.6 to 26.8 σθ in the south Indian Ocean, using in situ hydrographic observations, satellite measurements, reanalysis datasets, and numerical model output. The amplitude of spiciness anomalies is about 0.03 psu or 0.13°C and tends to be large along the streamline of the subtropical gyre, whose upstream end is the outcrop region south of Australia. The speed of spreading is comparable to that of the mean current, and it takes about a decade for a spiciness anomaly in the outcrop region to spread into the interior up to Madagascar. In the outcrop region, interannual variability in mixed layer temperature and salinity tends to be density compensating, which indicates that Eulerian temperature or salinity changes account for the generation of isopycnal spiciness anomalies. It is known that wintertime temperature and salinity in the surface mixed layer determine the temperature and salinity relationship of a subducted water mass. Considering this, the mixed layer heat budget in the outcrop region is estimated based on the concept of effective mixed layer depth, the result of which shows the primary contribution from horizontal advection. The contributions from Ekman and geostrophic currents are comparable. Ekman flow advection is caused by zonal wind stress anomalies and the resulting meridional Ekman current anomalies, as is pointed out by a previous study. Geostrophic velocity is decomposed into large-scale and mesoscale variability, both of which significantly contribute to horizontal advection.

Changes in the Subantarctic Mode Water Properties and Spiciness in the Southern Indian Ocean based on Argo Observations

The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) plays an essential role in the global heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrient budgets. In this study, decadal changes in the SAMW properties in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) and associated thermodynamic and dynamic processes are investigated during the Argo era. Both temperature and salinity of the SAMW in the SIO show increasing trends during 2004-2018. A two-layer structure of the SAMW trend, with more warm and salty light SAMW but less cool and fresh dense SAMW, is identified. The heaving and spiciness processes are important but have opposite contributions to the temperature and salinity trends of the SAMW. A significant deepening of isopycnals (heaving), peaking at σθ=26.7-26.8 kg m−3in the middle layer of the SAMW, expands the warm and salty light SAMW and compresses the cool and fresh dense SAMW corresponding to the change in subduction rate during 2004-2018. The change in the SAMW subduction rate is dominated by the change in the mixed layer depth, controlled by the changes in wind stress curl and surface buoyancy loss. An increase in the mixed-layer temperature due to weakening northward Ekman transport of cool water leads to a lighter surface density in the SAMW formation region. Consequently, density outcropping lines in the SAMW formation region shift southward and favor the intrusion and entrainment of the cooler and fresher Antarctic surface water from the south, contributing to the cooling/freshening trend of isopycnals (spiciness). Subsequently, the cooler and fresher SAMW spiciness anomalies spread in the SIO via the subtropical gyre.

Equatorial Pacific bulk 𝛿15N supports a secular increase in subantarctic zone nitrate utilization after the mid-Pleistocene Transition

<p>Pacific-wide measurements of nitrate and its isotopic composition have furthered our understanding of modern subsurface circulation and have revealed basin-scale connections between oceanographic and nitrogen cycle processes. From the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), the isotopic signature of denitrification is spread zonally and meridionally via subsurface currents. From the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) penetrates to the low latitudes, delivering nitrate (and likely its isotopic signature) to equatorial surface waters via upwelling. These two regional processes combine to inform much of the thermocline nitrogen dynamics of the Pacific. Here, we compare a new 1.4-Myr bulk sediment 𝛿<sup>15</sup>N record from the New Guinea margin (IODP Site U1486) to other Pacific 𝛿<sup>15</sup>N records to track Pleistocene changes in denitrification and SAMW properties. Our results highlight a dramatic increasing 𝛿<sup>15</sup>N trend after the mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) at equatorial sites that is not observed at the New Guinea and California margin sites. Strong 41-ky forcing at equatorial sites and little detectable influence from denitrification (counter to larger denitrification signals at margin sites) suggests increasing 𝛿<sup>15</sup>N within upwelled SAMW. Because the New Guinea and California margin sites are not below equatorial upwelling, thermocline nitrate is less influenced by SAMW, but rather tracks denitrification in the ETP.</p><p>As equatorial Pacific nitrate utilization has not dramatically increased in the late Pleistocene, an increase in subantarctic zone nitrate utilization is proposed. Initiation of increased nitrate utilization appears to commence near the end of the MPT and accelerate near the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka). The observed southward shift of the polar front at this time (associated with increased sea surface temperature), combined with elevated dust/iron flux, may have contributed to greater nitrate utilization and a more efficient biological pump in the subantarctic zone. Through the production (via denitrification) and sequestration (via nitrate utilization) of greenhouse gases, these biogeochemical processes potentially participated in feedbacks associated with both the MPT and the Mid-Brunhes Event. Until reconstructions of subantarctic zone nitrate are extended beyond the last two glacial cycles, this reconstruction of SAMW properties via equatorial Pacific bulk 𝛿<sup>15</sup>N may provide the best record of long-term changes in nitrogen dynamics in the subantarctic zone.</p>

Strong quasi-stationary wintertime atmospheric surface pressure anomalies drive a dipole pattern in the Subantarctic ModeWater formation

The deepest wintertime (Jul-Sep) mixed layers associated with Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) formation develop in the Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean. In these two sectors the dominant interannual variability of both deep wintertime mixed layers and SAMW volume is a east-west dipole pattern in each basin. The variability of these dipoles are strongly correlated with the interannual variability of overlying winter quasi-stationary mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Anomalously strong positive MSLP anomalies are found to result in the deepening of the wintertime mixed layers and an increase in the SAMW formation in the eastern parts of the dipoles in the Pacific and Indian sectors. These effects are due to enhanced cold southerly meridional winds, strengthened zonal winds and increased surface ocean heat loss. The opposite occurs in the western parts of the dipoles in these sectors. Conversely, strong negative MSLP anomalies result in shoaling (deepening) of the wintertime mixed layers and a decrease (increase) in SAMW formation in the eastern (western) regions. The MSLP variability of the Pacific and Indian basin anomalies are not always in phase, especially in years with a strong El Niño, resulting in different patterns of SAMW formation in the western vs. eastern parts of the Indian and Pacific sectors. Strong isopycnal depth and thickness anomalies develop in the SAMW density range in years with strong MSLP anomalies. When advected eastward, they act to precondition downstream SAMW formation in the subsequent winter.