Mathematical models of short-range dispersal in defoliating lepidopterans

The gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) is among the most destructive invasive species in North America, responsible for defoliating millions of hectares of oak forest. The spatial dynamics of defoliating lepidopteran populations, such as those of the gypsy moth, are thus of great interest to forestry and conservation efforts. Despite numerous studies on the long-range dispersal patterns of defoliators, there is comparatively little theoretical understanding or field research concerning short-range dispersal via ballooning. Previous studies of ballooning have assumed random diffusion, but these models cannot account for non-random biases, such as the effect of wind on the angle of dispersal.Here, I develop models of short-range dispersal in larvae via ballooning, informed by methods from the seed dispersal kernel literature. I then fit models to field data of gypsy moth larvae dispersal using MCMC to perform Bayesian inference, and PSIS-LOO to perform model selection. I found that dispersal kernel models are able to reliably detect biases in angle of dispersal due to wind direction, and allow for testing of correlations between experimental variables and measures of dispersal. These modeling methods can help inform future studies into short-range larval dispersal and provide a novel framework with which to analyze dispersal data.

Simulating migration in dynamic vegetation models efficiently with LPJ-GM

Dynamic vegetation models are a common tool to assess the effect of climate and land use change on vegetation. While the current development aims to include more processes, e.g. the nitrogen cycle, the models still typically assume an ample seed supply allowing all species to establish once the climate conditions are suitable. A number of species have been shown to lag behind in occupying climatological suitable areas (e.g. after a change in the climate) as they need to arrive and establish at the newly suitable areas. Previous attempts to implement migration in dynamic vegetation models have allowed simulating either only small areas or have been implemented as post process, not allowing for feedbacks within the vegetation. Here we present two novel methods simulating migrating and interacting tree species which have the potential to be used for continental simulations. Both distribute seeds between grid cells leading to individual establishment. The first method uses an approach based on Fast Fourier transform while in the second approach we iteratively shift the seed production matrix and disperse seeds with a given probability. While the former method is computationally marginally faster, it does not allow for modification of the seed dispersal kernel parameters with respect to terrain features, which the latter method allows. We evaluate the increase in computational demand of both methods. Since dispersal acts at a scale no larger than 1 km, all dispersal simulations need to be performed at least at that scale. However, with the current available computational power it is not feasible to simulate the vegetation dynamics of a whole continent at that scale. We present an option to decrease the required computational costs, reducing the number of grid cells where the local dynamics is computed by simulating it only along migration transects. Evaluation of species patterns and migration speeds shows that although the simulation along transects reduces the migration speed slightly, both methods are reliable. Furthermore, both methods are sufficiently computationally efficient to allow large scale DGVM simulations with migration on entire continents.