Modeling Carbon Release of Brazilian Highest Economic Pole and Major Urban Emitter: Comparing Classical Methods and Artificial Neural Networks

Despite the concern about climate change and the associated negative impacts, fossil fuels continue to prevail in the global energy consumption. This paper aimed to propose the first model that relates CO2 emissions of Sao Paulo, the main urban center emitter in Brazil, with gross national product and energy consumption. Thus, we investigated the accuracy of three different methods: multivariate linear regression, elastic-net regression, and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. Comparing the results, we clearly demonstrated the superiority of artificial neural networks when compared with the other models. They presented better results of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 0.76%) and the highest possible coefficient of determination (R2 = 1.00). This investigation provides an innovative integrated climate-economic approach for the accurate prediction of carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be considered as a potential valuable decision-support tool for policymakers to design and implement effective environmental policies.

Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Flux Inferred from TanSat XCO2 Retrievals

TanSat is China’s first greenhouse gases observing satellite. In recent years, substantial progresses have been achieved on retrieving column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2). However, relatively few attempts have been made to estimate terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using TanSat XCO2 retrievals. In this study, based on the GEOS-Chem 4D-Var data assimilation system, we infer the global NEE from April 2017 to March 2018 using TanSat XCO2. The inversion estimates global NEE at −3.46 PgC yr-1, evidently higher than prior estimate and giving rise to an improved estimate of global atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Regionally, our inversion greatly increases the carbon uptakes in northern mid-to-high latitudes and significantly enhances the carbon releases in tropical and southern lands, especially in Africa and India peninsula. The increase of posterior sinks in northern lands is mainly attributed to the decreased carbon release during the nongrowing season, and the decrease of carbon uptakes in tropical and southern lands basically occurs throughout the year. Evaluations against independent CO2 observations and comparison with previous estimates indicate that although the land sinks in the northern middle latitudes and southern temperate regions are improved to a certain extent, they are obviously overestimated in northern high latitudes and underestimated in tropical lands (mainly northern Africa), respectively. These results suggest that TanSat XCO2 retrievals may have systematic negative biases in northern high latitudes and large positive biases over northern Africa, and further efforts are required to remove bias in these regions for better estimates of global and regional NEE.

Declining Carbon Emission/Concentration during COVID-19: A critical review on temporary relief

In December 2019 the deadly pandemic COVID-19 traumatized mankind through its lethal impact. To seize the outbreak, nationwide/region-based lockdown strategies were adopted by most of the COVID-19 affected countries. This in turn resulted in restricted transportation via surface, water, and air, as well as significantly reduced working hours of the industry sectors, so on and so forth. The obvious outcome was a sudden discernible decline in atmospheric adulteration. Accordingly, the anthropogenic emissions at the global and regional/local scales were examined during the lockdown period by several researchers using both or either satellite-based and ground-based monitoring. Among several other air-contaminants, carbon has a dominant toxicological profile causing adverse health effects and thereby attracting researches interest in carbon-release probing during the systematic confinement period imposed by the ruling authorities across the globe. The results of those studies indicated a confirmed decline in carbon emission/concentration making the air more breathable for the period. In this review, the studies related to anthropogenic emissions of carbon during the lockdown period are accounted for by compiling the recently reported data from published articles.

Viral infection switches the balance between bacterial and eukaryotic recyclers of organic matter during algal blooms

Algal blooms are hotspots of marine primary production and play central roles in microbial ecology and global nutrient cycling. When blooms collapse, organic carbon is transferred to higher trophic levels, microbial respiration or sinking in proportions that depend on the dominant mortality agent. Viral infection can lead to bloom termination, but its impact on the fate of carbon remains an open question. Here, we characterized the consequences of viral infection on the microbiome composition and biogeochemical landscape of marine ecosystems by conducting a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Moniroting of seven induced coccolithophore blooms, which showed different degrees of viral infection, revealed that only high levels of viral infection caused significant shifts in the composition of free-living bacterial and eukaryotic assemblages. Intriguingly, viral infection favored the growth of eukaryotic heterotrophs (thraustochytrids) over bacteria as potential recyclers of organic matter. By combining modeling and quantification of active viral infection at a single-cell resolution, we estimate that viral infection can increase per-cell rates of extracellular carbon release by 2-4.5 fold. This happened via production of acidic polysaccharides and particulate inorganic carbon, two major contributors to carbon sinking into the deep ocean. These results reveal the impact of viral infection on the fate of carbon through microbial recyclers of organic matter in large-scale coccolithophore blooms.

Assessing the importance of thermogenic degassing from the Karoo Large Igneous Province (LIP) in driving Toarcian carbon cycle perturbations

The emplacement of the Karoo Large Igneous Province (LIP) occurred synchronously with the Toarcian crisis (ca. 183 Ma), which is characterized by major carbon cycle perturbations. A marked increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (pCO2) attests to significant input of carbon, while negative carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) in marine and terrestrial records suggest the involvement of a 12C-enriched source. Here we explore the effects of pulsed carbon release from the Karoo LIP on atmospheric pCO2 and δ13C of marine sediments, using the GEOCLIM carbon cycle model. We show that a total of 20,500 Gt C replicates the Toarcian pCO2 and δ13C proxy data, and that thermogenic carbon (δ13C of −36 ‰) represents a plausible source for the observed negative CIEs. Importantly, an extremely isotopically depleted carbon source, such as methane clathrates, is not required in order to replicate the negative CIEs. Although exact values of individual degassing pulses represent estimates, we consider our emission scenario realistic as it incorporates the available geological knowledge of the Karoo LIP and a representative framework for Earth system processes during the Toarcian.

Viral infection switches the balance between bacterial and eukaryotic recyclers of organic matter during algal blooms

Algal blooms are hotspots of marine primary production and play central roles in microbial ecology and global nutrient cycling. When blooms collapse, organic carbon is transferred to higher trophic levels, microbial respiration or sinking in proportions that depend on the dominant mortality agent. Viral infection can lead to bloom termination, but its impact on the fate of carbon remains an open question. Here, we characterized the consequences of viral infection on the microbiome composition and biogeochemical landscape of marine ecosystems by conducting a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Moniroting of seven induced coccolithophore blooms, which showed different degrees of viral infection, revealed that only high levels of viral infection caused significant shifts in the composition of free-living bacterial and eukaryotic assemblages. Intriguingly, viral infection favored the growth of eukaryotic heterotrophs (thraustochytrids) over bacteria as potential recyclers of organic matter. By combining modeling and quantification of active viral infection at a single-cell resolution, we estimate that viral infection can increase per-cell rates of extracellular carbon release by 2-4.5 fold. This happened via production of acidic polysaccharides and particulate inorganic carbon, two major contributors to carbon sinking into the deep ocean. These results reveal the impact of viral infection on the fate of carbon through microbial recyclers of organic matter in large-scale coccolithophore blooms.