Predicting aquatic invasion in Adirondack lakes: a spatial analysis of lake and landscape characteristics

Invasive species continue to pose major challenges for managing coupled human-environmental systems. Predictive tools are essential to maximize invasion monitoring and conservation efforts in regions reliant on abundant freshwater resources to sustain economic welfare, social equity, and ecological services. Past studies have revealed biotic and abiotic heterogeneity, along with human activity, can account for much of the spatial variability of aquatic invaders; however, improvements remain. This study was created to (1) examine the distribution of aquatic invasive species richness (AISR) across 126 lakes in the Adirondack Region of New York; (2) develop and compare global and local models between lake and landscape characteristics and AISR; and (3) use geographically weighted regression (GWR) to evaluate non-stationarity of local relationships, and assess its use for prioritizing lakes at risk to invasion. The evaluation index, AISR, was calculated by summing the following potential aquatic invaders for each lake: Asian Clam (Corbicula fluminea), Brittle Naiad (Najas minor), Curly-leaf Pondweed (Potamogeton crispus), Eurasian Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum), European Frog-bit (Hydrocharis morsus-ranae), Fanwort (Cabomba caroliniana), Spiny Waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus), Variable-leaf Milfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum Water Chestnut (Trapa natans), Yellow Floating Heart (Nymphoides peltata), and Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). The Getis-Ord Gi_ statistic displayed significant spatial hot and cold spots of AISR across Adirondack lakes. Spearman’s rank (q) correlation coefficient test (rs) revealed urban land cover composition, lake elevation, relative patch richness, and abundance of game fish were the strongest predictors of aquatic invasion. Five multiple regression global Poisson and GWR models were made, with GWR fitting AISR very well (R2 = 76–83%). Local pseudo-t-statistics of key explanatory variables were mapped and related to AISR, confirming the importance of GWR for understanding spatial relationships of invasion. The top 20 lakes at risk to future invasion were identified and ranked by summing the five GWR predictive estimates. The results inform that inexpensive and publicly accessible lake and landscape data, typically available from digital repositories within local environmental agencies, can be used to develop predictions of aquatic invasion with remarkable agreement. Ultimately, this transferable modeling approach can improve monitoring and management strategies for slowing the spread of invading species.

Predicting aquatic invasion in Adirondack lakes: a spatial analysis of lake and landscape characteristics

Invasive species continue to pose major challenges for managing coupled human-environmental systems. Predictive tools are essential to maximize invasion monitoring and conservation efforts in regions reliant on abundant freshwater resources to sustain economic welfare, social equity, and ecological services. Past studies have revealed biotic and abiotic heterogeneity, along with human activity, can account for much of the spatial variability of aquatic invaders; however, improvements remain. This study was created to (1) examine the distribution of aquatic invasive species richness (AISR) across 126 lakes in the Adirondack Region of New York; (2) develop and compare global and local models between lake and landscape characteristics and AISR; and (3) use geographically weighted regression (GWR) to evaluate non-stationarity of local relationships, and assess its use for prioritizing lakes at risk to invasion. The evaluation index, AISR, was calculated by summing the following potential aquatic invaders for each lake: Asian Clam (Corbicula fluminea), Brittle Naiad (Najas minor), Curly-leaf Pondweed (Potamogeton crispus), Eurasian Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum), European Frog-bit (Hydrocharis morsus-ranae), Fanwort (Cabomba caroliniana), Spiny Waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus), Variable-leaf Milfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum Water Chestnut (Trapa natans), Yellow Floating Heart (Nymphoides peltata), and Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). The Getis-Ord Gi_ statistic displayed significant spatial hot and cold spots of AISR across Adirondack lakes. Spearman’s rank (q) correlation coefficient test (rs) revealed urban land cover composition, lake elevation, relative patch richness, and abundance of game fish were the strongest predictors of aquatic invasion. Five multiple regression global Poisson and GWR models were made, with GWR fitting AISR very well (R2 = 76–83%). Local pseudo-t-statistics of key explanatory variables were mapped and related to AISR, confirming the importance of GWR for understanding spatial relationships of invasion. The top 20 lakes at risk to future invasion were identified and ranked by summing the five GWR predictive estimates. The results inform that inexpensive and publicly accessible lake and landscape data, typically available from digital repositories within local environmental agencies, can be used to develop predictions of aquatic invasion with remarkable agreement. Ultimately, this transferable modeling approach can improve monitoring and management strategies for slowing the spread of invading species.

Distribution of Five Aquatic Plants Native to South America and Invasive Elsewhere under Current Climate

Biological invasions and climate pose two of the most important challenges facing global biodiversity. Certainly, climate change may intensify the impacts of invasion by allowing invasive plants to increase in abundance and further expand their ranges. For example, most aquatic alien plants in temperate climate are of tropical and subtropical origins and the northern limits of their ranges are generally determined by minimum winter temperatures, and they will probably expand their distributions northwards if climate warms. The distribution of five invasive aquatic plants in freshwater systems across continents were investigated. Their global distributions in the current climate were modeled using a recently developed ensemble species distribution model approach, specifically designed to account for dispersal constraints on the distributions of range-expanding species. It was found that the species appear capable of substantial range expansion, and that low winter temperature is the strongest factor limiting their invasion. These findings can be used to identify areas at risk of recently introduction of neophytes, and develop future monitoring programs for aquatic ecosystems, prioritizing control efforts, which enables the effective use of ecological niche models to forecast aquatic invasion in other geographic regions.

Hitchhikers on floats to Arctic freshwater: Private aviation and recreation loss from aquatic invasion

This study of aviation-related recreation loss shows that a survey primarily aimed at collecting information on invasive species’ pathways can also be used to estimate changes in pathway-related ecosystem services. We present a case study for Elodea spp. (elodea), Alaska’s first known aquatic invasive plant, by combining respondents’ stated pre-invasion actual flights with stated post-invasion contingent behavior, plane operating costs, and site quality data. We asked pilots about the extent of continued flights should destinations become invaded and inhibit flight safety. We estimate a recreation demand model where the lost trip value to the average floatplane pilot whose destination is an elodea-invaded lake is US$185 (95 % CI $157, $211). Estimates of ecosystem damages incurred by private actors responsible for transmitting invaders can nudge actors to change behavior and inform adaptive ecosystem management. The policy and modeling implications of quantifying such damages and integration into more complex models are discussed.

First record of the Guppy (Poecilia reticulata Peters, 1859) in inlandwaters of Turkey

The ever-increasing global trade of ornamental aquarium fishes is one of the most important pathways for aquatic invasion. Occurrence of ornamental freshwater fishes in natural freshwaters has been increasing in recent years. The ornamental trade accounts for a limited but steadily growing proportion of fish introductions to Turkish inlandwaters. In this study, Guppy, Peocilia reticulata, is recorded for the first time from natural inlandwaters of Turkey. P. reticulata was probably released into the wild, but is now established in aquifer of Çeşme-Ildır (İzmir).