Prediction of extubation outcome in critically ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Extubation failure is an important issue in ventilated patients and its risk factors remain a matter of research. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore factors associated with extubation failure in ventilated patients who passed a spontaneous breathing trial and underwent planned extubation. This systematic review was registered in PROPERO with the Registration ID CRD42019137003. Methods We searched the PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials for studies published from January 1998 to December 2018. We included observational studies involving risk factors associated with extubation failure in adult intensive care unit patients who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the validity of included studies. Results Sixty-seven studies (involving 26,847 participants) met the inclusion criteria and were included in our meta-analysis. We analyzed 49 variables and, among them, we identified 26 factors significantly associated with extubation failure. Risk factors were distributed into three domains (comorbidities, acute disease severity and characteristics at time of extubation) involving mainly three functions (circulatory, respiratory and neurological). Among these, the physiological respiratory characteristics at time of extubation were the most represented. The individual topic of secretion management was the one with the largest number of variables. By Bayesian multivariable meta-analysis, twelve factors were significantly associated with extubation failure: age, history of cardiac disease, history of respiratory disease, Simplified Acute Physiologic Score II score, pneumonia, duration of mechanical ventilation, heart rate, Rapid Shallow Breathing Index, negative inspiratory force, lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio, lower hemoglobin level and lower Glasgow Coma Scale before extubation, with the latest factor having the strongest association with extubation outcome. Conclusions Numerous factors are associated with extubation failure in critically ill patients who have passed a spontaneous breathing trial. Robust multiparametric clinical scores and/or artificial intelligence algorithms should be tested based on the selected independent variables in order to improve the prediction of extubation outcome in the clinical scenario.

Handgrip strength to predict extubation outcome: a prospective multicenter trial

Background ICU-acquired weakness (ICUAW) has been shown to be associated with prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation and extubation failure. It is usually assessed through Medical Research Council (MRC) score, a time-consuming score performed by physiotherapists. Handgrip strength (HG) can be monitored very easily at the bedside. It has been shown to be a reproducible and reliable marker of global muscular strength in critical care patients. We sought to test if muscular weakness, as assessed by handgrip strength, was associated with extubation outcome. Methods Prospective multicenter trial over an 18 months period in six mixed ICUs. Adults receiving mechanical ventilation for at least 48 h were eligible. Just before weaning trial, HG, Maximal Inspiratory Pressure (MIP), Peak Cough Expiratory Flow (PCEF) and Medical Research Council (MRC) score were registered. The attending physicians were unaware of the tests results and weaning procedures were conducted according to guidelines. Occurrence of unscheduled reintubation, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) or high-flow nasal continuous oxygen (HFNC) because of respiratory failure within 7 days after extubation defined extubation failure. The main outcome was the link between HG and extubation outcome. Results 233 patients were included. Extubation failure occurred in 51 (22.5%) patients, 39 (17.2%) required reintubation. Handgrip strength was 12 [6–20] kg and 12 [8–20] kg, respectively, in extubation success and failure (p = 0.85). There was no association between extubation outcome and MRC score, MIP or PCEF. Handgrip strength was well correlated with MRC score (r = 0.718, p < 0.0001). ICU and hospital length of stay were significantly higher in the subset of patients harboring muscular weakness as defined by handgrip performed at the first weaning trial (respectively, 15 [10–25] days vs. 11 [7–17] days, p = 0.001 and 34 [19–66] days vs. 22 [15–43] days, p = 0.002). Conclusion No association was found between handgrip strength and extubation outcome. Whether this was explained by the appropriateness of the tool in this specific setting, or by the precise impact of ICUAW on extubation outcome deserves to be further evaluated. Trial registration Clinical Trials; NCT02946502, 10/27/2016, URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=gripwean&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

Prediction of extubation outcome in mechanically ventilated patients: Development and validation of the Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS)

Despite the best efforts of intensive care units (ICUs) professionals, the extubation failure rates in mechanically ventilated patients remain in the range of 5%–30%. Extubation failure is associated with increased risk of death and longer ICU stay. This study aimed to identify respiratory and non-respiratory parameters predictive of extubation outcome, and to use these predictors to develop and validate an “Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS)” that could be used to predict likelihood of extubation success in patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Derivation cohort was composed by patients aged ≥18 years admitted to the ICU and receiving IMV through an endotracheal tube for >24 hours. The weaning process followed the established ICU protocol. Clinical signs and ventilator parameters of patients were recorded during IMV, in the end phase of weaning in pressure support ventilation (PSV) mode, with inspiratory pressure of 7 cm H2O over the PEEP (positive end expiratory pressure). Patients who tolerated this ventilation were submitted to spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) with T-tube for 30 minutes. Those who passed the SBT and a subsequent cuff-leak test were extubated. The primary outcome of this study was extubation success at 48 hours. Parameters that showed statistically significant association with extubation outcome were further investigated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to assess their predictive value. The area under the curve (AUC) values were used to select parameters for inclusion in the ExPreS. Univariable logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis were performed to evaluate the performance of ExPreS. Patients’ inclusion and statistical analyses for the prospective validation cohort followed the same criteria used for the derivation cohort and the decision to extubate was based on the ExPreS result. In the derivation cohort, a total of 110 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 101 (91.8%) patients and failed in 9 (8.2%) patients. Rapid shallow-breathing index (RSBI) in SBT, dynamic lung compliance, duration of IMV, muscle strength, estimated GCS, hematocrit, and serum creatinine were significantly associated with extubation outcome. These parameters, along with another parameter—presence of neurologic comorbidity—were used to create the ExPreS. The AUC value for the ExPreS was 0.875, which was higher than the AUCs of the individual parameters. The total ExPreS can range from 0 to 100. ExPreS ≥59 points indicated high probability of success (OR = 23.07), while ExPreS ≤44 points indicated low probability of success (OR = 0.82). In the prospective validation cohort, 83 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 81 (97.6%) patients and failed in 2 (2.4%) patients. The AUC value for the ExPreS in this cohort was 0.971. The multiparameter score that we propose, ExPreS, shows good accuracy to predict extubation outcome in patients receiving IMV in the ICU. In the prospective validation, the use of ExPreS decreased the extubation failure rate from 8.2% to 2.4%, even in a cohort of more severe patients.