The Optimistic View to Uncertainty. Benefits of Real Option Valuation Methodology in Project Valuation; Example of its Application for a Rail Terminal Modification Project

The two main factors that drive the shift to liquid cracking in the Middle East are the restricted availability of ethane and the fact that naphtha or mixed feed cracking provides us with a much more diverse product mix. This opens the path to a higher share of performance chemicals. Building petrochemical complexes based on liquid or mixed feed cracking requires very complicated downstream configurations at a high level of integration with refinery streams. The value created by such a project rests on the ability of the operator to solve complex optimization problems in a volatile market environment. Inevitably, the correctness of the investment decision rests on the ability of the management to determine the value of the project under conditions of uncertainty regarding the future market prices. This paper demonstrates how the approach that was developed originally for the option valuation, can be used to address the problem of project assessment under the conditions of uncertainty. A real-life example of an investment decision about a modification of a rail terminal is used to illustrate the problem and to present a solution to it. Building on this example further, the paper argues that the method of Real Option valuation can support a creation of a competitive advantage in the conditions of uncertainty.

Project Valuation and Risk Assessment in Food Product Development: Evidence from Fuzzy Real Option Valuation

To survive in today's competitive environment, companies must continuously develop and offer customers new products. To increase the probability of a successful business case of investing in the development of a new product, careful attention must be paid to risk analysis in terms of the present value of future potential income. The article considers an example of the research work of the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, in the framework of which a technical and technological project was developed to produce a new product, like Mediterranean anchovy, from cheaper Baltic sprats. The main goal of this work is to explore the application multi-factor sensitivity and fuzzy real option analysis to the valuation of new product development project. The multivariate analysis of the sensitivity of the financial model of the greenfield production project described in this article revealed the main risk groups, as well as their degree of influence on the assessment of the Net Present Value of the project by a potential investor. The use of Fuzzy Real Option Valuation made it possible to evaluate the project with uncertain parameters, as well as to calculate the potential upside from preliminary refinement of parameters to eliminate negative scenarios. The described approach is applicable to risk assessment of new food product development and allows investors to make a more informed decision about participation in such projects.