A Unified Theory of Human Judgements and Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Growing empirical evidence reveals that traditional set-theoretic structures cannot in general be applied to cognitive phenomena. This has raised several problems, as illustrated, for example, by probability judgement errors and decision-making (DM) errors. We propose here a unified theoretical perspective which applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory in Hilbert space to cognitive domains. In this perspective, judgements and decisions are described as intrinsically non-deterministic processes which involve a contextual interaction between a conceptual entity and the cognitive context surrounding it. When a given phenomenon is considered, the quantum-theoretic framework identifies entities, states, contexts, properties and outcome statistics, and applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory to model the considered phenomenon. We explain how the quantum-theoretic framework works in a variety of judgement and decision situations where systematic and significant deviations from classicality occur.

USING ABSOLUTE PROBABILITY JUDGEMENT METHOD FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT - A CASE STUDY

Human reliability assessment is becoming increasingly important in risk assessment in all industrial systems. All methods for human reliability assessment are used to estimate human error probabilities, which is a measure of human reliability. Human error assessment is certainly a challenge fo r all the experts involved in risk assessment today. In Serbia, this issue has not received proper attention yet. Therefore, this paper presents the case study which confirmed that the usage of Absolute Probability Judgement for proper human reliability assessment. This approach was used in a case study of the Electric Power Company in Serbia (hereinafter EPCS) for the purpose of the analysis accident of a repair intervention on a 10/0.4 kV steel lattice tower “Nova Kolonija” (jurisdiction of EPCS, Veliki Trnovac, ED “Jugoistok”, Nis, Serbia). The case study performed at the EPCS has confirmed that the conventional APJ approach is not only highly applicable for quantification of human errors, but also comprehensive and simple to use in risk assessment of complex systems. Key words: Absolute Probability Judgement, Human Reliability Assessment, Accident, Case Study

An Improved Backoff Scheme for the IEEE 802.15.4 MAC Protocol

To solve the impact on network performance by the mobile nodes and data transfer rate constantly changing,this paper proposes a improved backoff scheme for IEEE802.15.4, which uses Probability Judgement based on Network Load and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PJNL_EWMA). According to a real-time monitoring of current network status by probability judgement of network load , this method dynamically adjust backoff exponent by EWMA when the CSMA/CA begins. Compared the IEEE802.15.4 and MBS+EWMA schemes, the simulation experiments on NS2 platform show that the PJNL_EWMA scheme not only improves the throughput of the network, but also reduces the packet loss rate and the collision ratio,significantly improve the network performance.