The rate of environmental change as an important driver across scales in ecology

Global change has been predominantly studied from the prism of ‘how much’ rather than ‘how fast’ change occurs. The paradigm underlying the former assumes that a smooth change in an environmental driver can force a regime shift between alternative states (Bifurcation-tipping). This presupposes that environmental conditions change at a rate which allows the ecological entity to track them and thus reach equilibrium. However, current rates of environmental change are often too fast for this paradigm to apply, necessitating a shift in approach to improve predictions on the impacts of rapid environmental change. The theory of rate-induced tipping (Rate-tipping) demonstrates how rates of environmental change can cause tipping phenomena even in the absence of alternative states. We illustrate how Rate-tipping can apply to a range of ecological scenarios and explore the literature for properties which increase the sensitivity to rates of change. Further, we discuss how targeted empirical studies can investigate the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms through which rate-induced phenomena can propagate across levels of organisation. Finally, we argue for the inclusion of Rate-tipping in the study of global change as the first step towards the theoretical synthesis necessary to account for multiple stressors impacting ecological entities simultaneously.

Linking global terrestrial CO₂ fluxes and environmental drivers: inferences from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 satellite and terrestrial biospheric models

Observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite have been used to estimate CO2 fluxes in many regions of the globe and provide new insight into the global carbon cycle. The objective of this study is to infer the relationships between patterns in OCO-2 observations and environmental drivers (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and therefore inform a process understanding of carbon fluxes using OCO-2. We use a multiple regression and inverse model, and the regression coefficients quantify the relationships between observations from OCO-2 and environmental driver datasets within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. We subsequently compare these inferences to the relationships estimated from 15 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that participated in the TRENDY model inter-comparison. Using OCO-2, we are able to quantify only a limited number of relationships between patterns in atmospheric CO2 observations and patterns in environmental driver datasets (i.e., 10 out of the 42 relationships examined). We further find that the ensemble of TBMs exhibits a large spread in the relationships with these key environmental driver datasets. The largest uncertainty in the models is in the relationship with precipitation, particularly in the tropics, with smaller uncertainties for temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Using observations from OCO-2, we find that precipitation is associated with increased CO2 uptake in all tropical biomes, a result that agrees with half of the TBMs. By contrast, the relationships that we infer from OCO-2 for temperature and PAR are similar to the ensemble mean of the TBMs, though the results differ from many individual TBMs. These results point to the limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to help inform key relationships that are very uncertain in state-of-the-art TBMs.

The Reversion of cg05575921 Methylation in Smoking Cessation: A Potential Tool for Incentivizing Healthy Aging

Smoking is the largest preventable cause of mortality and the largest environmental driver of epigenetic aging. Contingency management-based strategies can be used to treat smoking but require objective methods of verifying quitting status. Prior studies have suggested that cg05575921 methylation reverts as a function of smoking cessation, but that it can be used to verify the success of smoking cessation has not been unequivocally demonstrated. To test whether methylation can be used to verify cessation, we determined monthly cg05575921 levels in a group of 67 self-reported smokers undergoing biochemically monitored contingency management-based smoking cessation therapy, as part of a lung imaging protocol. A total of 20 subjects in this protocol completed three months of cotinine verified smoking cessation. In these 20 quitters, the reversion of cg05575921 methylation was dependent on their initial smoking intensity, with methylation levels in the heaviest smokers reverting to an average of 0.12% per day over the 3-month treatment period. In addition, we found suggestive evidence that some individuals may have embellished their smoking history to gain entry to the study. Given the prominent effect of smoking on longevity, we conclude that DNA methylation may be a useful tool for guiding and incentivizing contingency management-based approaches for smoking cessation.

Hyperglycemia Cooperates with Tet2 Heterozygosity to Induce Leukemia Driven By Pro-Inflammatory Cytokine Induced Lncrna Morrbid

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for cancer development. However, the role of DM induced hyperglycemic stress (HG) in the development of blood cancer is poorly understood, largely due to lack of appropriate animal models. Epidemiologic studies show that individuals with DM are more likely to possess higher rate of mutations in genes found in pre-leukemic stem and progenitor cells (pre-LHSC/Ps) including in the epigenetic regulator TET2. TET2-mutant pre-LHSC/Ps require additional hits to evolve into a full-blown leukemia and/or aggressive myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN). Cell intrinsic mutations have been shown to cooperate with Tet2 to promote leukemic transformation. However, the role of extrinsic factors is poorly understood. Utilizing a novel mouse model bearing haploinsufficiency of Tet2, to mimic the human pre-LHSC/P condition and HG stress, in the form of an Ins2Akita/+mutation, which induces HG and Type-1 DM, we show that the compound mutant mice develop a lethal form of MPN and/or acute myeloid leukemia (AML). RNA-seq revealed that this is in part due to upregulation of pro-inflammatory pathways, thereby generating a feed-forward loop, including the expression of an anti-apoptotic lncRNA Morrbid. Loss of Morrbid in the compound mutants rescues the lethality and mitigates the development of MPN/AML. Our results describe a novel mouse model for age-dependent AML/MPN and suggest that HG stress acts as an environmental driver for myeloid neoplasm, which could be effectively prevented by reducing the expression of inflammation-related lncRNA Morrbid. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Environmental Controls on the Climatological Scaling of Tornado Frequency with Intensity

The scaling of U.S. tornado frequency with enhanced Fujita (EF)-rated intensity is examined for the range EF1–EF3. Previous work has found that tornado frequency decreases exponentially with increasing EF rating and that many regions around the world show the same exponential rate of decrease despite having quite different overall tornado frequencies. This scaling is important because it relates the frequency of the most intense tornadoes to the overall tornado frequency. Here we find that U.S. tornado frequency decreases more sharply with increasing intensity during summer than during other times of the year. One implication of this finding is that, despite their rarity, when tornadoes do occur during the cool season, the relative likelihood of more intense tornadoes is higher than during summer. The environmental driver of this scaling variability is explored through new EF-dependent tornado environmental indices (TEI-EF) that are fitted to each EF class. We find that the sensitivity of TEI-EF to storm relative helicity (SRH) increases with increasing EF class. This increasing sensitivity to SRH means that TEI-EF predicts a slower decrease in frequency with increasing intensity for larger values of SRH (e.g., cool season) and a sharper decrease in tornado frequency in summer when wind shear plays a less dominant role. This explanation is also consistent with the fact that the fraction of supercell tornadoes is smaller during summer.

Tides: A key environmental driver of osteichthyan evolution and the fish-tetrapod transition?

Tides are a major component of the interaction between the marine and terrestrial environments, and thus play an important part in shaping the environmental context for the evolution of shallow marine and coastal organisms. Here, we use a dedicated tidal model and palaeogeographic reconstructions from the Late Silurian to early Late Devonian (420 Ma, 400 Ma and 380 Ma, Ma = millions of years ago) to explore the potential significance of tides for the evolution of osteichthyans (bony fish) and tetrapods (land vertebrates). The earliest members of the osteichthyan crown-group date to the Late Silurian, approximately 425 Ma, while the earliest evidence for tetrapods is provided by trackways from the Middle Devonian, dated to approximately 393 Ma, and the oldest tetrapod body fossils are Late Devonian, approximately 373 Ma. Large tidal ranges could have fostered both the evolution of air-breathing organs in osteichthyans to facilitate breathing in oxygen-depleted tidal pools, and the development of weight-bearing tetrapod limbs to aid navigation within the intertidal zones. We find that tidal ranges over 4 m were present around areas of evolutionary significance for the origin of osteichthyans and the fish-tetrapod transition, highlighting the possible importance of tidal dynamics as a driver for these evolutionary processes.

Beyond the visual: using metabarcoding to characterize the hidden reef cryptobiome

In an era of coral reef degradation, our knowledge of ecological patterns in reefs is biased towards large conspicuous organisms. The majority of biodiversity, however, inhabits small cryptic spaces within the framework of the reef. To assess this biodiverse community, which we term the ‘reef cryptobiome’, we deployed 87 autonomous reef monitoring structures (ARMS), on 22 reefs across 16 degrees latitude of the Red Sea. Combining ARMS with metabarcoding of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I gene, we reveal a rich community, including the identification of 14 metazoan phyla within 10 416 operational taxonomic units (OTUs). While mobile and sessile subsets were similarly structured along the basin, the main environmental driver was different (particulate organic matter and sea surface temperature, respectively). Distribution patterns of OTUs showed that only 1.5% were present in all reefs, while over half were present in a single reef. On both local and regional scales, the majority of OTUs were rare. The high heterogeneity in community patterns of the reef cryptobiome has implications for reef conservation. Understanding the biodiversity patterns of this critical component of reef functioning will enable a sound knowledge of how coral reefs will respond to future anthropogenic impacts.