Similarities and Contrasts in Time-Mean Striated Surface Tracers in Pacific Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems: The Role of Ocean Currents in Their Generation

Eastern boundary upwelling systems feature strong zonal gradients of physical and biological properties between cool, productive coastal oceans and warm, oligotrophic subtropical gyres. Zonal currents and jets (striations) are therefore likely to contribute to the transport of water properties between coastal and open oceanic regions. For the first time, multi-sensor satellite data are used to characterize the time-mean signatures of striations in sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in subtropical eastern North/South Pacific (ENP/ESP) upwelling systems. In the ENP, tracers exhibit striated patterns extending up to ~2500 km offshore. Striated signals in SST and SSS are highly correlated with quasi-zonal jets, suggesting that these jets contribute to SST/SSS mesoscale patterns via zonal advection. Striated Chl-a anomalies are collocated with sea surface height (SSH) bands, a possible result of mesoscale eddy trains trapping nutrients and forming striated signals. In the ESP, the signature of striations is only found in SST and coincides with the SSH bands, consistently with quasi-zonal jets located outside major zonal tracer gradients. An interplay between large-scale SST/SSS advection by the quasi-zonal jets, mesoscale SST/SSS advection by the large-scale meridional flow, and eddy advection may explain the persistent ENP hydrographic signature of striations. These results underline the importance of quasi-zonal jets for surface tracer structuring at the mesoscale.

Evaluating the eastward propagation of the MJO in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models based on a variety of diagnostics

Given the climatic importance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), this study evaluates the capability of CMIP6 models in simulating MJO eastward propagation in comparison with their CMIP5 counterparts. To understand the representation of MJO simulation in models, a set of diagnostics in respect of MJO-associated dynamic and thermodynamic structures are applied, including large-scale zonal circulation, vertical structures of diabatic heating and equivalent potential temperature, moisture convergence at planetary boundary layer (PBL), and the east-west asymmetry of moisture tendency relative to the MJO convection. The simulated propagation of the MJO in CMIP6 models shows an overall improvement on realistic speed and longer distance, which displays robust linear regression relationship against above-mentioned dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The improved MJO propagation in CMIP6 largely benefits from better representation of pre-moistening processes that is primarily contributed by improved PBL moisture convergence. In addition, the convergence of moisture and meridional advection of moisture prior to the MJO convection are enhanced in CMIP6, while the zonal advection of moisture is as weak as that in CMIP5. The increased convergence of moisture is a result of enhanced lower-tropospheric moisture and divergence, and the enhanced meridional advection of moisture can be caused by sharpened meridional gradient of mean low-tropospheric moisture in the western Pacific. Further examinations on lower-tropospheric moisture budget reveals that the enhanced zonal asymmetry of the moisture tendency in CMIP6 is driven by the drying process to the west of the MJO convection, which is accredited to the negative vertical and zonal advections of moisture.

The process of high-frequency intraseasonal oscillation associated with a persistent rainfall event over South China

In the present study, the moist static energy (MSE) budget associated with a persistent rainfall event that occurred over South China in late August 2018 (PR1808) was analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results revealed that the PR1808 event was closely related to a 12–30-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), with a significant westward-propagating mode. The recharge of MSE occurred before ISO deep convection, and the MSE was discharged during and after the peak precipitation. This result indicates that the recharge-discharge cycle of MSE played an important role in regulating the high-frequency ISO (HF-ISO) process during the PR1808 event. However, the mid-level MSE tendency, rather than the low-level tendency, controlled the column-integrated MSE change in this case, and there was no low-level MSE tendency ahead of HF-ISO convection, which is different from previous studies, implying that shallow convection was not a key factor in this case. The recharge of MSE related to the mid-level MSE change mode was mainly attributed to zonal advection, while the forcing related to radiative heating (longwave and shortwave radiation) and heat fluxes (latent and sensible heat fluxes) contributed little to the change in MSE. Furthermore, for the zonal advection of MSE, the main contribution originated from the advection by the low-frequency zonal flow across the low-frequency MSE gradient, and interactions between high- (low-) frequency zonal flow and low- (high-) frequency MSE. In addition, the disturbances from higher latitudes enhanced the persistent rainfall in this case over South China through the southward shift of baroclinic vorticity.

Similarities and Contrasts in Stationary Striations of Surface Tracers in Pacific Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems

Eastern boundary upwelling systems feature strong zonal gradients of physical and biological ocean properties between cool, productive coastal oceans and warm, oligotrophic subtropical gyres. Zonal currents and jets (striations) are therefore likely to contribute to the transport of water properties between coastal and open oceanic regions. Multi-sensor satellite data are used to characterize the signatures of striations in sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in subtropical eastern North/South Pacific (ENP/ESP) upwelling systems. In the ENP, tracers exhibit striated patterns extending up to ~2500 km offshore. Striations in SST and SSS are highly correlated with quasi-zonal jets, suggesting that these jets contribute to SST/SSS mesoscale patterns via zonal advection. Chl-a striations are collocated with sea surface height (SSH) bands, a possible result of mesoscale eddy trains trapping nutrients and forming striated signals. In the ESP, striations are only found in SST and coincide with SSH bands, consistently with quasi-zonal jets located outside major zonal tracer gradients. An interplay between large-scale SST/SSS advection by the quasi-zonal jets, mesoscale SST/SSS advection by the large-scale meridional flow and eddy advection may explain the persistent ENP hydrographic striations. These results underline the importance of quasi-zonal jets for surface tracer structuring at the mesoscale.

Quantifying the Mechanisms of Atmospheric Circulation Response to Greenhouse Gas Increases in a Forcing-Feedback Framework

While there is substantial evidence for tropospheric jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to greenhouse gas increases, quantitative assessments of individual mechanisms and feedback for atmospheric circulation changes remain lacking. We present a new forcing-feedback analysis on circulation response to increasing CO2 concentration in an aquaplanet atmospheric model. This forcing-feedback framework explicitly identifies a direct zonal wind response by holding the zonal mean zonal wind exerting on the zonal advection of eddies unchanged, in comparison with the additional feedback induced by the direct response in zonal mean zonal wind. It is shown that the zonal advection feedback accounts for nearly half of the changes to the eddy-driven jet shift and Hadley cell expansion, largely contributing to the subtropical precipitation decline, when the CO2 concentration varies over a range of climates. The direct response in temperature displays the well-known tropospheric warming pattern to CO2 increases, but the feedback exhibits negative signals. The direct response in eddies is characterized by a reduction in upward wave propagation and a poleward shift of midlatitude eddy momentum flux (EMF) convergence, likely due to an increase in static stability from moist thermodynamic adjustment. In contrast, the feedback features a dipole pattern in EMF that further shifts and strengthens midlatitude EMF convergence, resulting from the upper-level zonal wind increase seen in the direct response. Interestingly, the direct response produces an increase in eddy kinetic energy (EKE), but the feedback weakens EKE. Thus, the forcing-feedback framework highlights the distinct effect of zonal mean advecting wind from direct thermodynamic effects in atmospheric response to greenhouse gas increases.

Origins of the excessive westward extension of ENSO SST simulated in CMIP5/6 models

An excessive westward extension of the simulated ENSO-related sea surface temperature (ENSO SST) variability in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models is the most apparent ENSO SST pattern bias and dominates the intermodel spread in ENSO SST variability among the models. The ENSO SST bias lowers the models’ skill in ENSO-related simulations and induces large intermodel uncertainty in ENSO-related projections. The present study investigates the origins of the excessive westward extension of ENSO SST in 25 CMIP5 and 25 CMIP6 models. Based on the intermodel spread of ENSO SST variability simulated in the 50 models, we reveal that this ENSO SST bias among the models largely depends on the simulated cold tongue strength in the equatorial western Pacific (EWP). Models simulating a stronger cold tongue tend to simulate a larger mean zonal SST gradient in the EWP and then a larger zonal advection feedback in the EWP, favoring a more westward extension of the ENSO SST pattern. In addition, with the overall improvement in the EWP cold tongue from CMIP5 to CMIP6, the excessive westward extension bias of ENSO SST in CMIP6 models is also reduced relative to those in CMIP5 models. The results suggest that the bias and intermodel disagreement in the mean-state SST have been improved, which benefits to improving ENSO simulation.

The quantification of development processes of explosive cyclones over Northwestern Pacific and Atlantic in boreal winter

<p>A method utilizing a prognostic potential vorticity (PV) inversion is designed and applied to quantify the processes that contribute to the explosive cyclone (EC) development over Northwestern Pacific and Atlantic in boreal winter. The ECs deepening in the two remarked regions are identified and tracked, by using the automated tracking method on ERA-Interim reanalysis data over the period of 1979–2017. The quantification process first involves time differentiation of linearized potential vorticity (PV), which results in a linear function of geopotential height tendency. It is then equated with the PV tendency equation that consists of mean and transient advection terms to represent dynamical processes that contribute to EC development. The quantification, finally, is performed through the inversion of PV tendency budgets, which yields corresponding geopotential height tendency. The results indicate that EC development is primarily caused by zonal advection of PV anomalies by mean flow (~65%) and diabatic production of PV (~40%), with some negative factors in both regions. The former contributes more for ECs deepening over Northwestern Atlantic (~71%) than Northwestern Pacific (~60%), whereas the latter contributes to a similar extent.</p>

Improving the forecast skill of El Nino diversity: A nonlinear forcing singular vector approach

<p>Observations indicate that there exist two types of El Niño events: one is the EP-El Niño with a warming center in the eastern tropical Pacific, and the other is the CP-El Niño with large positive SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific. Most current numerical models show low skills in identifying the El Niño diversity. The present study examines the dynamical properties of the ENSO forecast system NFSV-ICM which combines an intermediate complexity ENSO model (ICM) with a nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)-tendency perturbation forecast model. This system is able to distinguish different types of El Niño in simulations and predictions. It is shown that the NFSV-ICM system is able to capture the horizontal distribution of the SST anomalies and their amplitudes in the mature phase of not only EP-El Niño but also CP-El Niño. At the same time, the NFSV-ICM is able to describe the evolution of SST anomalies associated with the two types of El Niño up to at least two-season lead time, while the corresponding forecasts with the ICM is only limited to at most one-season lead time. These improvements are associated with the modifications of atmospheric and ocean processes described by the ICM through the NFSV-tendency perturbations. In particular, the thermocline and zonal advection feedback are strongly modified and improve the conditions of emergence of both the EP- and CP-El Niño events. The NFSV-ICM therefore provides a useful platform for studying ENSO dynamics and predictability associated with El Niño diversities.</p>

The role of spring dry zonal advection in summer drought onset over the US Great Plains

This study addresses the role of the atmospheric moisture budget in determining the onset and development of summer droughts over the North American Great Plains (GP) using two state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets. We identified zonal moisture advection as the main cause of severe tropospheric drying during the extreme droughts in the southern GP in 2011 and northern GP in 2012. For both events, the eastward advection of anomalously dry and warm air in the free troposphere in spring set the stage for summer drought. This led to a sharp drop in relative humidity above the boundary layer, enhancing dry entrainment and suppressing deep convection. Further breakdown of the zonal advection into dynamic (caused by circulation anomalies) and thermodynamic (caused by moisture anomalies) contributions reveals dominance of thermodynamic advection in the tropospheric drying observed during the onset of both 2011 and 2012 droughts. The dependence of thermodynamic advection on the moisture gradient links springtime precipitation in the Rockies and southwestern US, the source region of the anomalous dry advection, to the GP summer precipitation (with correlations > 0.4 using gauge-based data). Identifying this previously overlooked precursor of the GP summer droughts improves our predictive understanding of drought onset mechanisms over the region.

On the Seasonal Cycle of the Tropical South Indian Ocean. Part I: Mixed Layer Heat and Salt Budgets

Scale interactions in the coupled ocean and atmosphere of the tropics play a crucial role in shaping the climate state and its spatial and temporal variability. The mechanisms driving the seasonal cycles of mixed layer (ML) temperature and salinity in the tropical south Indian Ocean (TSIO) are revisited and quantified using model and observations to form a basis on which to assess the cycle’s impact on shorter and longer time scale variability in the region. Budgets of ML heat for the western, central, and eastern TSIO in both model and observations indicate that seasonality in ML temperature is driven by surface heat fluxes in all regions; ocean processes, however, are essential to explain east–west differences in the cycle. In contrast, the salt budgets show that ML salinity in the west and central regions of the TSIO is driven by horizontal advection, with salinity increasing during austral winter mainly due to meridional advection, and freshening during spring–summer due to zonal advection; in the east, no single mechanism appears to dominate ML salinity seasonality. The ML seasonal cycle across the entire region is very much influenced by the basin-scale adjustment that occurs in response to monsoon winds in the eastern side of the basin. Zonal advection, as part of the adjustment process, is the key mechanism responsible for bringing fresher/colder waters from the east to the central and western TSIO during austral spring, leading to a lag in the coldest ML temperatures in the east relative to the west/central TSIO, and effectively coupling the eastern and western TSIO beyond simply Rossby wave dynamics.