Resilience against the pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on migration and household welfare in Tajikistan

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have adverse effects on the economy through damage to migration and remittances. We use a unique monthly household panel dataset that covers the period both before and after the outbreak to examine the impacts of COVID-19 on a variety of household welfare outcomes in Tajikistan, where remittance inflows in recent years have exceeded a quarter of annual GDP. We provide several findings. First, after April 2020, the adverse effects of the pandemic on household welfare were significantly observed and were particularly pronounced in the second quarter of 2020. Second, in contrast to expectation, the pandemic had a sharp but only transitory effect on the stock of migrants working abroad in the spring. Some expected migrants were forced to remain in their home country during the border closures, while some incumbent migrants expecting to return were unable to do so and remained employed in their destination countries. Both departures and returns started to increase again from summer. Employment and remittances of the migrants quickly recovered to levels seen in previous years after a sharp decline in April and May. Third, regression analyses reveal that both migration and remittances have helped to mitigate the adverse economic outcomes at home during the “with-COVID-19” period, suggesting that they served as a form of insurance. Overall, the unfavorable effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were severe and temporary right after the outbreak, but households with migrants were more resilient against the pandemic.

Decomposing the Persistent and Transitory Effect of Information and Communication Technology on Environmental Impacts Assessment in Africa: Evidence from Mundlak Specification

This study examines the persistent and transitory effects of information and communication technology (ICT) on the environmental impact assessment in Africa. The applied advanced econometrics is based on both the Mundlak and Hausman–Taylor methodology for correcting endogeneity and the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method to identify any potential cross-panel correlation. The empirical evidence suggests that an increase in ICT (Internet penetration) has a positive transitory effect on the environment. On the contrary, an increase in ICT has a negative persistent effect on the environment. This implies that a temporary change in ICT usage increases carbon emissions, whereas ICT use can reduce carbon emissions in the long run. In addition, this study identified mediums through which ICT can affect the environment, such as energy consumption. Therefore, this study recommends continuous investment in ICT infrastructure and education on the importance of practicing environmentally sustainable practices. Similarly, energy conservation is critical because use of the Internet appears to indirectly increase energy usage by increasing the overall productivity of the economy, which may subsequently degrade the environment.

Structural estimates of the South African sacrifice ratio

This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998Q1–2019Q3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (2001) based on Cecchetti (1994) is employed. Our findings show us a small sacrifice ratio, which lies within the range 0.00002–0.231 per cent with an average of 0.031 per cent, indicating a low level of output to be sacrificed while fighting inflation. Hence, the reserve bank is recommended to sustain an inflation rate within the target range and reap the benefits of a predictable and stable price path, as restrictive monetary policy has only a transitory effect on real variables like output.

EFFECT OF EXTREME CONDITIONING TRAINING ON BODY PERCEPTION

ABSTRACT Introduction Extreme conditioning training (ECT) has become a popular method, characterized by a wide variety of exercises. For good technical performance, practitioners must have good perception of the different parts of the body; however, it is not known whether this perception differs between practitioners and non-practitioners of ECT. Objective To analyze the perception of body dimensions among subjects submitted to an ECT session. Methods Adult men were divided into TRAINED (n = 10) and UNTRAINED (n = 10). All subjects were submitted to a combination of high-effort multiarticular exercises for a set period of nine minutes (“the largest possible number of repetitions” [AMRAP]). For the procedure of marking the body pattern, the subjects were scored in terms of acromioclavicular joints, waist and trochanter. Results Regarding the general perception of body size, the TRAINED and UNTRAINED groups were classified as adequate for each stage. In the dimension of body segments, there was an overestimation of the shoulder region in both groups (TRAINED Pre = 105.2 ± 8.37; Post = 117.23 ± 22.11 [ES = 0.79]; 30 min = 101.34 ± 14.21 [ES = 0.34] and UNTRAINED Pre = 96.72 ± 12.79; Post = 99.47 ± 12.17 [ES = 0.22]; 30 min = 111.05 ± 11.06 [ES = 1.27]). The perception of the waist region improved significantly after training (TRAINED Pre = 114.11 ± 16.4; Post = 117.7 ± 20.16 [ES = 0.20]; 30 min = 104.59 ± 11.46 [ES = 0.68] and UNTRAINED Pre = 114.66 ± 9.88; Post = 104.64 ± 12.87; [ES = 0.88]; 30 min = 108.36 ± 12.32 [ES = 0.57]). Conclusion ECT can promote better perception of body dimensions. In addition, the assessment of body size in active, but untrained individuals showed a better body perception, albeit a transitory effect. Level of evidence II; Therapeutic studies - investigation of treatment results.

Permanent and transitory effect of public debt on economic growth

PurposeThis study examines the effect of public debt on the economic growth of OECD countries by disentangling the effect into permanent and transitory components. The study covers 37 OECD countries.Design/methodology/approachThe Mundlak decomposition was employed to decompose the effect of public debt into its transitory and permanent effect on economic growth. To account for potential endogeneity problem, the Hausman and Taylor estimator was employed to estimate the decomposed model. Further, the study disaggregated the OECD model into country group models for further analysis of the dynamics of the relationship between the variables.FindingsThe findings of the study reveal that in the full OECD model public debt exerts a significant negative permanent and positive transitory effect on economic growth. This was robust to alternative model specifications. The magnitude of the negative permanent effect of debt was found to be larger than the positive transitory effect. Further, the estimates of the disaggregated models reveal that though public debt has a negative permanent effect across all the country groups, it was not the case for the transitory effect of debt. Also, a net public debt model was estimated, and its effect on public debt was found to be largely insignificant, exhibiting a Ricardian-like behaviour.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study, particularly in the OECD context that employed the Mundlak transformation to examine the permanent versus transitory effect of public debt on economic growth.

A preliminary transcriptome analysis suggests a transitory effect of vitamin D on mitochondrial function in obese young Finnish subjects

Objective The effect of vitamin D at the transcriptome level is poorly understood, and furthermore, it is unclear if it differs between obese and normal-weight subjects. The objective of the study was to explore the transcriptome effects of vitamin D supplementation. Design and methods We analysed peripheral blood gene expression using GlobinLock oligonucleotides followed by RNA sequencing in individuals participating in a 12-week randomised double-blinded placebo-controlled vitamin D intervention study. The study involved 18 obese and 18 normal-weight subjects (of which 20 males) with mean (±s.d.) age 20.4 (±2.5) years and BMIs 36 (±10) and 23 (±4) kg/m2, respectively. The supplemental daily vitamin D dose was 50 µg (2000 IU). Data were available at baseline, 6- and 12-week time points and comparisons were performed between the vitamin D and placebo groups separately in obese and normal-weight subjects. Results Significant transcriptomic changes were observed at 6 weeks, and only in the obese subjects: 1724 genes were significantly upregulated and 186 genes were downregulated in the vitamin D group compared with placebo. Further analyses showed several enriched gene categories connected to mitochondrial function and metabolism, and the most significantly enriched pathway was related to oxidative phosphorylation (adjusted P value 3.08 × 10−14). Taken together, our data suggest an effect of vitamin D supplementation on mitochondrial function in obese subjects. Conclusions Vitamin D supplementation affects gene expression in obese, but not in normal-weight subjects. The altered genes are enriched in pathways related to mitochondrial function. The present study increases the understanding of the effects of vitamin D at the transcriptome level.

Poverty index vs richness index: a new way to analyze the determinants of poverty

Purpose The analysis of poverty is fundamentally focused on examining the well-being condition of the poor. We usually neglect the information provided by the rich. Nevertheless, perhaps the non-considered information indicating the determinants of non-poverty is also useful for fighting against poverty. The purpose of this paper is to analyze poverty under a new angle i.e. focusing on the information provided by the non-poor instead of the poor. For that a richness index is calculated in order to estimate econometric models regressing both indices i.e. poverty and richness indices on same selected characteristics. Thus, the comparison of the determinants of poverty and non-poverty for Tunisian case have allowed the classification of the selected explanatory variables with significant effect into four categories: the variables having significant effect on both sides (permanent effect), the variables having significant effect on the poor but not on the non-poor (transitory effect), the variables having significant effect on the non-poor but not on the poor (insurance effect) and the variables without any effect on both cases (neutral effect). This procedure is thus important given that it provides additional information and new way to enhance the targeting efficiency of the poor and fighting against poverty. Design/methodology/approach Using Tunisian data, an original procedure is proposed for calculating a richness index, defined based on the common formula of calculating the poverty index. Next econometric models are estimated regressing both the indices i.e. poverty and richness index on same selected characteristics. Findings The comparison of the determinants of poverty and non-poverty have allowed the classification of the selected explanatory variables with significant effect into four categories: the variables having significant effect on both sides (permanent effect), the variables having significant effect on the poor but not on the non-poor (transitory effect), the variables having significant effect on the non-poor but not on the poor (insurance effect) and the variables without any effect on both cases (neutral effect). Originality/value The analysis and the classification of the determinants of poverty according to the determinants of non-poverty is never made before in the litterature. This procedure is important given that it provides additional information and a new way to enhance the efficiency of targeting the poor and fighting against poverty.

The impact of wildfire on an endangered reptile (Eulamprus leuraensis) in Australian montane swamps

Intense fire is a key threatening process for the endangered Blue Mountains water skink, Eulamprus leuraensis. This species is restricted to isolated, densely vegetated and waterlogged peat swamps in montane south-eastern Australia. We surveyed 11 swamps (5 unburnt, 6 burnt) over 2 years, before and after the intense spring bushfires of 2013, to quantify the fires’ impacts on these skinks, other lizards and the habitat upon which they depend. Trapping revealed no direct effect of fire on E. leuraensis populations, with skinks persisting in all burnt swamps. Fire modified ground vegetation, virtually eliminating live plants and the dense understorey. Despite the conflagration, vegetation regrowth was rapid with swamp habitat largely recovering in just over 1 year post-fire. Fire thus had only a transitory effect on lizard habitat and a non-significant impact on E. leuraensis numbers. Nonetheless, broader-scale analyses suggest a different story: skinks were more abundant in swamps that had experienced a longer time since major fire. Although the ability of this endangered reptile to survive even intense wildfires is encouraging, fire during prolonged dry periods or an intensified fire regime might imperil skink populations.

Extreme Coexceedances in South Eastern European Stock Markets with Focus on EU Accession Countries

The aim of this paper is to investigate and document the financial contagion of the South Eastern Europe (SEE) stock markets. Using a modification of the Bae et al. (2003) coexceedance approach based on multinomial logistic regressions we model the occurrence of the large negative or positive stock returns on a given day across the SEE stock markets. Specifically, we divide the SEE stock markets on two groups based on country’s EU membership in order to allow for transmission mechanism from major EU economies stock markets to EU member countries from SEE, and in addition, transitory effect from EU member countries from SEE to accession countries from SEE region. We test the persistence, asset class and volatility effects on the likelihood of the coexceedances in both SEE groups. We find that effects differ: (i) between negative and positive coexceedances and (ii) between the EU member countries and EU accession countries stock markets from SEE. The empirical evidence for the persistence effects, asset class and volatility effects in the SEE region should draw the attention of both investors and policy makers.