The nature of the open birth interval distribution

Background: The open birth interval -- the time since the woman’s latest birth -- is closely correlated to the usual fertility measures, but it adds important information from the age of the woman’s youngest child, with its implications for her freedom from domestic roles. Studies of the open interval by age and parity can elucidate the transitions in reproductive behavior that women experience over time. Methods: 249 surveys of married women in 75 countries in the DHS series provide information on the open interval by age and parity, and by the fertility measures of the total fertility rate (TFR), the general fertility rate (GFR), and children ever born (CEB), with time trends. Stata 15 and the “R” software were used, and a two-parameter equation was employed to model the distribution. Results: The distribution of women by the open interval follows a downward curve from birth to 20 years; it varies across countries and over time only by its starting level and the steepness of the curve. Declines in the shortest intervals soon after birth reflect recent fertility declines. Variations are large by both age and parity, but in quite different patterns. Past modeling analyses demonstrate the effects of female and spouse mortality, declining fecundability, contraceptive use, and reduced sexual exposure. Both period and cohort effects can impact the curve. The open interval distribution is modelled in an equation with two parameters and calculated for the latest surveys in the 75 countries. Conclusions: The time since a woman’s birth is easily captured with a single question in successive surveys. Changes in the open interval distribution serve as sensitive indicators of recent fertility changes, and the dynamics of reproductive behavior across women’s life stages are captured in new ways, as gauged by age and parity trends in the distributions.

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of birth movements in Serbia

Introduction/Aim: In recent decades, declines in fertility rates have been reported in almost every country in the world. The aim of the research is the analysis of epidemiological characteristics and childbirth trends in Serbia in the period 2007-2016. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive, epidemiological study. The research data were collected from the Health Statistical Yearbooks of the Institute of Public Health of the Republic of Serbia "Dr Milan Jovanovic Batut" in the period 2007-2016. Total fertility rates, stillbirth rates, birth rates, infant mortality rates, and preterm birth rates were used for the analysis of data, while the linear trend and regression analysis were used to analyze the trend. Results: Average rate of general fertility in Serbia in the period 2007-2016 was 1.5 children per woman. In the period 2007-2016, 660,069 births were registered in Serbia with a total of 671,715 children born, of which 4,054 were stillborn (0.6%). Two thirds (66.1%) of stillborn children were born prematurely. The number of premature births increased with maternal age. Of 667,661 live births in maternity hospitals, 924 newborns died (0.1%). In the observed period, a continuous trend of decreasing number of births was registered (y = 68,427-439.99x, R2 = 0.628), as well as the number of live births (y = 69,084-421.44x, R2 = 0.591). The trend of still birth rates showed a slight decrease (y = 6,138-0,012x, R2 = 0,016), as well as the trend of infant mortality rates (y = 1,882-50,091x, R2 = 0,683), but there came to an increase in the trend of the general fertility rate (y = 39.481 + 0.242x, R2 = 0.544). The average general fertility rate for the ten-year period was 41.1 live births per 1000 women of the fertile period and ranged from 38.2‰ to 41.7‰. The largest increase in the fertility rate was registered in the age group 40-44 years from 3.8‰ in 2007 to 9.9‰ in 2016 (2.6 times more), and then in the age group 30-39 years with 43.2‰ in 2007 to 63.0 ‰ in 2016 (1.4 times more). There came to a decline in the fertility rate at the age of 20-29 from 80.4‰ in 2007 to 72.2 ‰ in 2016. The highest rates of stillbirth were registered in the oldest group of 45-49 years (23.3 ‰), and the lowest in persons younger than 15 years (0.7‰). Conclusion: Birth revitalization policies must engage all levels of society to build awareness and moral responsibility for fertility.

Smart Fert: Aplikasi Praktis, Valid, dan Mudah Untuk Mengukur Indikator Fertilitas di Era Otonomi Daerah

Indikator fertilitas, seperti Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), General Fertility Rate (GFR), dan Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR), untuk mengukur kinerja pengendalian penduduk setiap tahun di level kabupaten/kota sejak otonomi daerah sering tidak tersedia. Aplikasi sistem informasi fertilitas Smart Fert sebagai alat untuk mengukur indikator fertilitas yang praktis, valid, dan mudah diaplikasikan sangat layak untuk dikembangkan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan aplikasi Smart Fert serta menguji hasil perhitungan indikator fertilitas dari aplikasi Smart Fert dibandingkan dengan perhitungan dari hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010. Penelitian ini merancang aplikasi Smart Fert berbasis bahasa visual basic. Untuk mengukur ketepatan dan kevalidan hasil perhitungan fertilitas dari aplikasi Smart Fert, maka hasilnya dibandingkan dengan standar yang baik, yaitu hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hasil perhitungan fertilitas dengan aplikasi Smart Fert tidak menunjukkan perbedaan signifikan dengan hasil metode langsung Sensus Penduduk 2010. Dengan demikian, aplikasi Smart Fert dapat dipakai sebagai alat penghitung indikator fertilitas yang praktis, valid, dan mudah diimplementasikan untuk mengukur kinerja pengendalian penduduk di tingkat kabupaten/kota.

Data linkage of Psychiatric and Maternity data to investigate the pregnancy outcomes of women with Non-affective Psychosis in Scotland

ABSTRACTObjectiveWomen with a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis have a lower fertility rate than the general population. However, perinatal outcomes in mothers with non-affective psychosis are under-researched. What is the general fertility rate (GFR) of women with a lifetime diagnosis of non-affective psychosis in Scotland? Does such a diagnosis affect the outcome of pregnancy? ApproachAn ‘exposed’ cohort with non-affective psychosis and at least one pregnancy was established using a combined dataset derived via data linkage in local safe havens of routine psychiatric and maternity data from two Scottish regions:•NHS Grampian (NHSGr): Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank (AMND); psychiatric casenotes•NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGG&C): SMR02; PsyCIS bespoke psychiatric databaseExposed women were matched to women without a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis, by maternal age (NHSGG&C only), year of first birth, parity and deprivation, sourced from AMND/SMR02 in a 3:1 unexposed:exposed ratio. Demographics and pregnancy outcomes of exposed versus unexposed women were analysed to describe effect of psychosis on pregnancy. ResultsMany challenges were encountered in terms of having legal agreements in place between institutions and safe havens, constructing cohorts and datasets within each study site and joining the data to analyse the overall cohort. Challenges with the data itself included discrepancies between the variables measured in datasets in different sites and missing information within patient records, particularly in earlier years. Preliminary results for the NHSGG&C region show that the average GFR for exposed women aged 15-44 from 2005 to 2014 was 14.38 compared to the general population rate of 55.26. The number of women ever having a miscarriage was significantly higher in the exposed group (23.4% vs 9.9%; p-value <0.001). However during the study period (1996 to 2014), more unexposed women had miscarriages (0.5% vs 4.7%; p-value = 0.002). There were no significant differences in pregnancy complications for the study period. The mean birthweight of babies was lower (3.23kg vs 3.35kg; p-value = 0.029) and more babies were admitted to neonatal units (17.5% vs 9.8%; p-value = 0.004) in the exposed group. Results for the NHSGr region and the combined dataset will also be reported. ConclusionThis work highlights that there remain hurdles to linking data across sites, despite availability of rich datasets within Scotland. Women with non-affective psychosis within NHSGG&C region had a lower fertility rate on average than the general population and some poorer outcomes, such as birthweight and rate of admission to neonatal units.

The impact on fertility of contraceptive failure in China in the 1980s

SummaryContraceptive failure was an important determinant of fertility in China in the 1980s. Based on the data from the China Two-per-Thousand Fertility Survey, this study shows that about 7% of the general fertility rate of currently married women aged 15–49 for a 12-month period is attributed to contraceptive failure, mainly due to the high failure rate associated with IUD use. A number of demographic characteristics are associated with contraceptive use, and with contraceptive failure and its outcome. Relevant socioeconomic differentials are also identified.

Socioeconomic structure and fertility in China: a county level investigation

SummaryAnalysis of the general fertility rate in the counties of China shows significant associations with infant mortality, illiteracy, and the percentage of the population employed in industry, but not with industrial or agricultural output. Urban counties differ from rural in the importance of the illiteracy rate. The associations in the rural counties vary according to the region of China in which they are located.

Seasonality of fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh

SummaryFrom matched birth and census records in the Matlab area of Bangladesh, monthly fertility rates for the period 1970–74 are studied for seasonal patterns by age and parity. Trigonometric regression techniques are used to summarize and compare the multiple series. Pronounced seasonal patterns are apparent for all age and parity groups. The general fertility rate peaks in December with a seasonal variation of 42% above and below the mean level. For younger women at low parities the peak is in late October, while for older women of higher parity it is in January. The shift progresses linearly with age and parity though the age effect is the more pronounced. A seasonal pattern of fecundability which varies by age group could explain the shift.