Regional Factors Influencing Non-Take-Up for Social Support in Korea Using a Spatial Regression Model

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influential factors of non-take-up citizens, who do not receive social benefits, to increase their discovery rate. A spatial regression model was used to analyze the variables affecting the discovery rates. As a result of the study, there was a difference in the percentage of welfare blind spots by region. In addition, when the proportion of the elderly population, the number of unemployment benefit recipients, etc. increased, that of welfare blind spots also increased; the lower the population density was, the higher the rate of increase in welfare blind spots became. Accordingly, in order to resolve the welfare blind spots at the local level, it is necessary to reinforce policy support for the elderly population and reduce the unemployment rate. Particularly, the policy will have to be prepared to resolve the welfare blind spots in rural areas with low population density.

Detection of Influential Observations in Spatial Regression Model Based on Outliers and Bad Leverage Classification

Influential Observations, which are outliers in x direction, y direction or both, remain a hitch in classical regression model fitting. Spatial regression model, with peculiar nature of outliers due to their local nature, is not free from the effect of such influential observations. Researchers have adapted some classical regression techniques to the spatial models and yielded satisfactory results. However, masking or/and swamping remain stumbling block to such methods. We obtained the spatial representation of the classical regression measures of diagnostic in general spatial model. Commonly used diagnostic measure in spatial diagnostic, the Cook's distance, is compared to some robust methods, Hi2 (using robust and non-robust measures), and classification based on generalized residuals and diagnostic generalized potentials, ISRs-Posi and ESRs-Posi, with the help of the obtained spatial prediction residuals and the spatial leverage term. Results of simulation and applications to real data have shown the advantage of the ISRs-Posi and ESRs-Posi due to classification of outliers over Cook's distance and non-robust Hsi12, which suffer from masking, and robust Hsi22 which suffer from swamping in general spatial model.

Examining Multilevel Poverty-Causing Factors in Poor Villages: a Hierarchical Spatial Regression Model

The examination of poverty-causing factors and their mechanisms of action in poverty-stricken villages is an important topic associated with poverty reduction issues. Although the individual or background effects of multilevel influencing factors have been considered in some previous studies, the spatial effects of these factors are rarely involved. By considering nested geographic and administrative features and integrating the detection of individual, background, and spatial effects, a bilevel hierarchical spatial linear model (HSLM) is established in this study to identify the multilevel significant factors that cause poverty in poor villages, as well as the mechanisms through which these factors contribute to poverty at both the village and county levels. An experimental test in the region of the Wuling Mountains in central China revealed the following findings. (1) There were significant background and spatial effects in the study area. Moreover, 48.28% of the overall difference in poverty incidence in poor villages resulted from individual effects at the village level. Additionally, 51.72% of the overall difference resulted from background effects at the county level. (2) Poverty-causing factors were observed at different levels, and these factors featured different action mechanisms. Village-level factors accounted for 14.29% of the overall difference in poverty incidence, and there were five significant village-level factors. (3) The hierarchical spatial regression model was found to be superior to the hierarchical linear model in terms of goodness of fit. This study offers technical support and policy guidance for village-level regional development.

SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE (SAR) MODEL WITH ENSEMBLE LEARNING-MULTIPLICATIVE NOISE WITH LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION (CASE ON POVERTY DATA IN EAST JAVA)

The regression model that can be used to model spatial data is Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model. The level of accuracy of the estimated parameters of the SAR model can be improved, especially to provide better results and can reduce the error rate by resampling method. Resampling is done by adding noise (noise) to the data using Ensemble Learning (EL) with multiplicative noise. The research objective is to estimate the parameters of the SAR model using EL with multiplicative noise. In this research was also applied a spatial regression model of the ensemble non-hybrid multiplicative noise which has a lognormal distribution of cases on poverty data in East Java in 2016. The results showed that the estimated value of the non-hybrid spatial ensemble spatial regression model with multiplicative noise with a lognormal distribution was obtained from the average parameter estimation of 10 Spatial Error Model (SEM) resulting from resampling. The multiplicative noise used is generated from lognormal distributions with an average of one and a standard deviation of 0.433. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value generated by the non-hybrid spatial ensemble regression model with multiplicative noise with a lognormal distribution is 22.99.

La incidencia delictiva en los municipios con redes de comunicación terrestre y rezago social en Chiapas

The objective of the article is to investigate the spatial relationship between socio-economic characteristics, demographics, terrestrial communication networks, and crime in the municipalities of Chiapas. The methodology includes a multiple spatial regression model estimated with maximum likelihood. We obtained the information from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP, 2019) and the 2015 Intercensal Survey (INEGI, 2015) at the municipal level. The results confirm that the municipalities connected by road and rail networks have higher unemployment rates and extreme poverty. They also present higher crimes rates such as robbery to passers-by and homicides. The results can be used as a public policy instrument to target crime prevention and containment programs.

PEMODELAN ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN ROBUST SPATIAL DURBIN MODEL

Spatial regression is a model used to determine relationship between response variables and predictor variables that gets spatial influence. If there are spatial influences on both variables, the model that will be formed is Spatial Durbin Model. One reason for the inaccuracy of the spatial regression model in predicting is the existence of outlier observations. Removing outliers in spatial analysis can change the composition of spatial effects on data. One way to overcome of outliers in the spatial regression model is by using robust spatial regression. The application of M-estimator is carried out in estimating the spatial regression parameter coefficients that are robust against outliers. The aim of this research is obtaining model of number of life expectancy in Central Java Province in 2017 that contain outliers. The results by applying M-estimator to estimating robust spatial durbin model regression parameters can accommodate the existence of outliers in the spatial regression model. This is indicated by the change in the estimating coefficient value of the robust spatial durbin model regression parameter which can increase adjusted R2 value becomes 93,69% and decrease MSE value becomes 0,12551.Keywords: Outliers, M-estimator, Spatial Durbin Model, Number of Life Expectancy.

The Influence of Climate Factors on Cocoa Productivity in Sulawesi, 2019

Cocoa is one of the plantation commodities that has an important role in Indonesia's economic activity and is one of Indonesia's export commodities which is quite important as a source of foreign exchange and oil and gas. Sulawesi Island is one of the cocoa-producing islands in Indonesia. This study aims to determine a spatial regression model between the average cocoa productivity per month with the average drinking temperature per month, the average monthly rainfall and the average length of sunshine per month and the climatic factors that affect cocoa productivity in Sulawesi. The best model estimation uses the AIC value; the best model has the smallest AIC value. In this study, the SARMA spatial regression model is the best model with the specified criteria.