Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Sochi Ski-Jump Area Using GIS and Numerical Modelling

The mountainous region of Greater Sochi, including the Olympic ski-jump complex area, located in the northern Caucasus, is always subjected to landslides. The weathered mudstone of low strength and potential high-intensity earthquakes are considered as the crucial factors causing slope instability in the ski-jump complex area. This study aims to conduct a seismic slope instability map of the area. A slope map was derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) and calculated using ArcGIS. The numerical modelling of slope stability with various slope angles was conducted using Geostudio. The Spencer method was applied to calculate the slope safety factors (Fs). The pseudostatic analysis was used to compute Fs considering seismic effect. A good correlation between Fs and slope angle was found. Combining these data, sets slope instability maps were achieved. Newmark displacement maps were also drawn according to empirical regression equations. The result shows that the static safety factor map corresponds to the existing slope instability locations in a shallow landslide inventory map. The seismic safety factor maps and Newmark displacement maps may be applied to predict potential landslides of the study area in the case of earthquake occurrence.