Methodology for identifying the socio-economic genome on the commodity market for sugar production

Sets of high probability cycles are determined, and also a common cyclic genome for the sugar industry is identified, which together affect the indicators of sugar, sugar beet, and sugarcane production. The regularities of the cyclical dynamics of large regional structures in the sugar industry are studied. For the first time in practice, the method of detecting the cyclic genome has been implemented not only by spectral analysis, but also by forward analysis (periodograms are built based on forward analysis). It is practically confirmed that the forward analysis when constructing periodograms shows results significantly better in than the classical spectral analysis. New patterns in the displacement (mutation) of the cyclic genome of the world sugar production are revealed. Sociogenetic patterns (cycles of different nature) are determined, for example, the cycle of a group of developed countries was 8.23 years, the cycle of developing countries – 8.39, the cycle of “Third world” countries – 7.6. A cyclical drift in world sugar production is revealed: after the end of World War II it shifted from the usual 9.49 years for the XIX century – the middle of the XX century to the current value of 7.12 years.

Rate of sepsis hospitalizations after misdiagnosis in adult emergency department patients: a look-forward analysis with administrative claims data using Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) methodology in an integrated health system

Objectives Delays in sepsis diagnosis can increase morbidity and mortality. Previously, we performed a Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) “look-back” analysis to identify symptoms at risk for delayed sepsis diagnosis. We found treat-and-release emergency department (ED) encounters for fluid and electrolyte disorders (FED) and altered mental status (AMS) were associated with downstream sepsis hospitalizations. In this “look-forward” analysis, we measure the potential misdiagnosis-related harm rate for sepsis among patients with these symptoms. Methods Retrospective cohort study using electronic health record and claims data from Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (2013–2018). Patients ≥18 years with ≥1 treat-and-release ED encounter for FED or AMS were included. Observed greater than expected sepsis hospitalizations within 30 days of ED treat-and-release encounters were considered potential misdiagnosis-related harms. Temporal analyses were employed to differentiate case and comparison (superficial injury/contusion ED encounters) cohorts. Results There were 4,549 treat-and-release ED encounters for FED or AMS, 26 associated with a sepsis hospitalization in the next 30 days. The observed (0.57%) minus expected (0.13%) harm rate was 0.44% (absolute) and 4.5-fold increased over expected (relative). There was a spike in sepsis hospitalizations in the week following FED/AMS ED visits. There were fewer sepsis hospitalizations and no spike in admissions in the week following superficial injury/contusion ED visits. Potentially misdiagnosed patients were older and more medically complex. Conclusions Potential misdiagnosis-related harms from sepsis are infrequent but measurable using SPADE. This look-forward analysis validated our previous look-back study, demonstrating the SPADE approach can be used to study infectious disease syndromes.

Forward analysis for WSTS, part I: completions

We define representations for downward-closed subsets of a rich family of well-quasi-orders, and more generally for closed subsets of an even richer family of Noetherian topological spaces. This includes the cases of finite words, of multisets, of finite trees, notably. Those representations are given as finite unions of ideals, or more generally of irreducible closed subsets. All the representations we explore are computable, in the sense that we exhibit algorithms that decide inclusion, and compute finite unions and finite intersections. The origin of this work lies in the need for computing finite representations of sets of successors of the downward closure of one state, or more generally of a downward-closed set of states, in a well-structured transition system, and this is where we start: we define adequate notions of completions of well-quasi-orders, and more generally, of Noetherian spaces. For verification purposes, we argue that the required completions must be ideal completions, or more generally sobrifications, that is, spaces of irreducible closed subsets.

Forward and Inverse Analysis of Love Wave Scattering by Interface Cavities

Love waves have great potential in geological inspection and ultrasonic nondestructive testing for near-surface underground characteristics. A thorough and effective utilization of the Love wave requires a better understanding of its scattering phenomenon. The paper studies the problem of Love wave scattering by cavity-like flaws on the interface between the upper layer and the lower half-plane. For the forward analysis, we suggest a modified boundary element method (BEM) incorporating the far-field displacement patterns, which can effectively eliminate fictitious reflections introduced by model truncation. For inverse analysis, we propose a quantitative reconstruction procedure for the flaw shape using reflection coefficients of the first-order Love wave. By theoretical deduction, it can be proved that the cavity’s geometric shape is approximately expressed as an inverse spatial Fourier transform of far-field reflection coefficients in the wavenumber domain. Numerical examples are given by substituting the reflection coefficients obtained from the forward analysis into the inversion algorithm, and high consistency is shown between the reconstructed flaw images and the geometric characteristics of the actual flaws.

Examination of Prestressed Coating/Substrate Systems Using Spherical Indentation—Determination of Film Prestress, Film Modulus, and Substrate Modulus

There have been many studies performed with respect to the indentation of thin films affixed to a corresponding substrate base. These studies have primarily focused on determining the mechanical properties of the film. It is the goal of this paper to further understand the role that the film plays and how a potential prestressing of this film has on both the film and substrate base. It is equally important to be able to understand the material properties of the substrate since during manufacturing or long-term use, the substrate properties may change. In this study, we establish through spherical indentation a framework to characterize the material properties of both the substrate and film as well as a method to determine the prestress of the film. It is proposed that through an initial forward analysis, a set of relationships are developed. A single spherical indentation test can then be performed, measuring the indentation force at two prescribed depths, and with the relationships developed from the forward analysis, the material properties of both the film and substrate can be determined. The problem is further enhanced by also developing the capability of determining any equibiaxial stress state that may exist in the film. A generalized error sensitivity analysis of this formulation is also performed systematically. This study will enhance the present knowledge of a typical prestressed film/substrate system as is commonly used in many of today’s engineering and technical applications.

Interfacial Debonding Detection for Rectangular CFST Using the MASW Method and Its Physical Mechanism Analysis at the Meso-Level

In this study, the transient multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) is proposed to detect the existence, the location and the length of interface debonding defects in rectangular concrete-filled steel tubes (CFST). Mesoscale numerical analysis is performed to validate the feasibility of MASW-based interfacial debonding detection. Research findings indicate that the coaxial characteristics in the Rayleigh wave disperse at the starting point of the debonding area and gradually restores at the end of the defect. For healthy specimens, the surface wave mode in CFST is closer to the Rayleigh wave. However, it can be treated as a Lamb wave since the steel plate is boundary-free on both sides in the debonding area. The displacement curves are further investigated with forward analysis to obtain the dispersion curves. The mesoscale numerical simulation results indicate that the propagation characteristic of the surface wave is dominated by the debonding defect. The detectability of interfacial debonding detection for rectangular CFST using the MASW approach is numerically verified in this study. The proposed MASW-based nondestructive testing technique can achieve bond-slip detection by comparing the variation trend of the coaxial characteristics in the time-history output signals and the dispersion curves obtained from the forward analysis, for avoiding misjudgment of the experimental observations.