Novel spatiotemporal evaluative methodology of COVID-19 pandemic velocity based on differential equations

Introduction: The trajectory of disease outbreaks has been characterized through second order differential equations.Objective: To develop a universal methodology to predict the velocity of COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, Spain, Belgium, and Austria based on differential equations and ranges of the number infected.Methodology: Seven comparison ranges were established to analyze discrete values of COVID-19 total cases. Then, right-angled triangles where their base represented the number of days elapsed and their height the maximum number infected that was reached for each range were designed to then find the triangles’ areas. Given that there is a change rate between the triangles’ areas with respect to time , their velocity was found through a differential equation. Finally, these results were used to compare the propagation speed of the pandemic in these four countries.Results: The areas obtained for the right-angled triangles for all the countries varied between 2.888 and 1.056.204. The change rate between the triangles areas and the days elapsed for a range change oscillated between 3.079 and 1.264.558, while the variation of the number infected with respect to time presented values between 4.6 and 21549.7.Conclusion: An acausal generalization was developed based on differential equations that allows to simplify and facilitate the spatiotemporal evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic velocity which is useful for public health

A Novel Auditory Display for Neonatal Resuscitation: Laboratory Studies Simulating Pulse Oximetry in the First 10 Minutes After Birth

Objective: We tested whether enhanced sonifications would improve participants’ ability to judge the oxygen saturation levels (SpO2) of simulated neonates in the first 10 min after birth. Background: During the resuscitation of a newborn infant, clinicians must keep the neonate’s SpO2 levels within the target range, however the boundaries for the target range change each minute during the first 10 min after birth. Resuscitation places significant demand on the clinician’s visual attention, and the pulse oximeter’s sonification could provide eyes-free monitoring. However, clinicians have difficulty judging SpO2 levels using the current sonification. Method: In two experiments, nonclinicians’ ability to detect SpO2 range and direction—while performing continuous arithmetic problems—was tested with enhanced versus conventional sonifications. In Experiment 1, tremolo signaled when SpO2 had deviated below or above the target range. In Experiment 2, tremolo plus brightness signaled when SpO2 was above target range, and tremolo alone when SpO2 was below target range. Results: The tremolo sonification improved range identification accuracy over the conventional display (81% vs. 63%, p < .001). The tremolo plus brightness sonification further improved range identification accuracy over the conventional display (92% vs. 62%, p <.001). In both experiments, there was no difference across conditions in arithmetic task accuracy ( p >.05). Conclusion: Using the enhanced sonifications, participants identified SpO2 range more accurately despite a continuous distractor task. Application: An enhanced pulse oximetry sonification could help clinicians multitask more effectively during neonatal resuscitations.

Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years

New York City (NYC) is threatened by 21st-century relative sea-level (RSL) rise because it will experience a trend that exceeds the global mean and has high concentrations of low-lying infrastructure and socioeconomic activity. To provide a long-term context for anticipated trends, we reconstructed RSL change during the past ~1500 years using a core of salt-marsh sediment from Pelham Bay in The Bronx. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were used as sea-level indicators. The history of sediment accumulation was established by radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution and land-use trends of known age in down-core elemental, isotopic, and pollen profiles. The reconstruction was generated within a Bayesian hierarchical model to accommodate multiple proxies and to provide a unified statistical framework for quantifying uncertainty. We show that RSL in NYC rose by ~1.70 m since ~575 CE (including ~0.38 m since 1850 CE). The rate of RSL rise increased markedly at 1812–1913 CE from ~1.0 to ~2.5 mm/yr, which coincides with other reconstructions along the US Atlantic coast. We investigated the possible influence of tidal-range change in Long Island Sound on our reconstruction using a regional tidal model, and we demonstrate that this effect was likely small. However, future tidal-range change could exacerbate the impacts of RSL rise in communities bordering Long Island Sound. The current rate of RSL rise is the fastest that NYC has experienced for >1500 years, and its ongoing acceleration suggests that projections of 21st-century local RSL rise will be realized.