Statistical Assessment of the Runoff Variability of Small Rivers in the Middle Zeravshan Basin

The article deals with the issues of statistical assessment of the variability of the runoff of small rivers in the Middle Zeravshan basin. For this purpose, the average monthly and annual water discharges were used, taken into account at 11 hydrological stations located on small rivers and water resources in the Middle Zeravshan basin. Calculations to estimate the coefficient of variability of river runoff were carried out for two periods: the first calculation period includes the base climatic period (1961-1990), and the second calculation period includes 1991-2018. Based on the analysis of the results obtained, an increase in the value of the coefficient of variation (Cv) in the second calculation period relative to the first calculation period was revealed.

A century of transformation: Fire regime transitions from 1919 to 2019 in southeastern British Columbia, Canada

The past 100 years marks a transition between pre-colonial and modern era fire regimes, which provides crucial context for understanding future wildfire behavior. Using the greatest depth of digitized fire events in Canada, we identify distinct phases of wildfire regimes from 1919 to 2019 by evaluating changes in mapped fire perimeters (>20-ha) across the East Kootenay forest region (including the southern Rocky Mountain Trench), British Columbia (BC). We detect transitions in annual number of fires, burned area, and fire size; explore the roles of lightning- and human-caused fires in driving these transitions; and quantify departures from historical fire frequency at the regional level. We found that, relative to historical fire frequency, fire exclusion created a significant fire deficit across 89% of the flammable landscape. Fire was active from 1919 to 1940 with frequent and large fire events, but the regime was already altered by a century of colonization. Fire activity decreased after 1940, coinciding with effective fire suppression influenced by a mild climatic period. After 2003, the combined effects of fire exclusion and accelerated climate change fueled a shift in fire regimes of various forest types, with increases in area burned and mean fire size driven by lightning.

Assessment of the Black Sea Temperature and Salinity Climatic Fields for the Recent Climatological Period (1991–2020)

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to assess the coefficient of vertical turbulent exchange for different layers of the Black Sea basin based on the experimental data on microstructure of the physical fields obtained for the period 2004–2019 in the Black Sea and using the semi-empirical models. Methods and Results. New array of the temperature and salinity climatic fields was assessed by the results of numerical experiments. In the experiment, annual variation of the Black Sea hydrophysical parameters was reconstructed by the numerical model. Modeling included the scheme of assimilating the data of the climatic temperature and salinity array assessed. In contrast to the averaged data of the field observations, the modeled fields are compliant with equations of motion. Besides the temperature and salinity three-dimensional fields, the three-dimensional climatic fields of the Black Sea currents were also reconstructed for each day of a climatic year that is quite impossible using the observational data only. Spatial-temporal variability of the modeled three-dimensional fields was analyzed. The integral characteristics of the Black Sea water dynamics for the recent 30-year climatic period were studied and compared with the analogous ones for the previous century. Simulation was carried out by three-dimensional non-linear model of the Black Sea dynamics developed in Marine Hydrophysical Institute. The horizontal resolution of the model was 5 km, and the EMODNet bathymetry was used. The performed calculations showed that the increased spatial resolution of the temperature and salinity climatic array for the recent period made it possible to reconstruct the dynamics of the Black Sea in all layers in more detail. At the same time, significant small-scale variability of salinity fields was revealed. It was most pronounced at the deep-water horizons. Conclusions. Modeling using a new array of thermohaline fields revealed an increase in the integral temperature of the upper mixed layer in comparison with the experiment with assimilation of the previous version of the climatic array. At that, thinning and «break» of the cold intermediate layer found in the central part of the sea, indicates warming of the sea upper layer during the last 30 years. The highest noise detected at the deep-water horizons in the modeled salinity fields is related to quantity and quality of the salinity data resulted from the field observations. Taking into account insufficient calibration facilities for measuring seawater electrical conductivity, the next version of climatic TS-array requires a more strict procedure for verifying and processing the observation data obtained in the deep-sea layers.

Assessment of the Black Sea Temperature and Salinity Climatic Fields for the Recent Climatological Period (1991–2020)

Purpose. The study is aimed at assessing a new climatic array of the Black Sea temperature and salinity calculated using hydrological observations for the standard (according to the World Meteorological Organization definition) 30-year climatological period 1991–2020. Methods and Results. New array of the temperature and salinity climatic fields was assessed based on analyzing the results of numerical experiments. In the experiment, annual variation of the Black Sea hydrophysical parameters was reproduced by the numerical model. Modeling included the scheme of assimilating the data of the climatic temperature and salinity array assessed. In contrast to the averaged data of the field observations, the model fields were matched from the viewpoint of the motion equations. Besides the temperature and salinity three-dimensional fields, the three-dimensional climatic fields of the Black Sea currents were also reproduced for each day of a climatic year that is quite impossible using the instrumental measurements data only. Spatial-temporal variability of the modeled three-dimensional fields was analyzed. The integral characteristics of the Black Sea water dynamics for the recent 30-year climatic period were studied and compared with the analogous ones for the previous century. Simulation was performed at the grid with the 5 km horizontal resolution using the EMODNet bathymetry by means of the three-dimensional non-linear model of the Black Sea dynamics developed in Marine Hydrophysical Institute. Having been analyzed, the performed calculations showed that the increased spatial resolution of the temperature and salinity climatic array for the recent period made it possible to reproduce dynamics in all the layers of the Black Sea waters in more details. At the same time, a significant small-scale variability, most pronounced at the deep-water horizons, was present in the salinity fields. Conclusions. As compared to the experiment with assimilation of the previous version of the climatic array, the modeling based on the new array of the thermohaline fields revealed increase in the integral temperature of the upper mixed layer. At that, thinning and «break» of the cold intermediate layer found in the central part of the sea, indicates warming of the sea upper layer during the last 30 years. The highest noisiness detected at the deep-water horizons in the modeled salinity fields is related to quantity and quality of the salinity data resulted from the field observations. Taking into account insufficient metrological facilities for measuring seawater electrical conductivity, the next version of climatic array requires a more strict procedure for verifying and processing the observation data obtained in the deep-sea layers.

Middle Pleistocene Variations in the Diet of Equus in the South of France and Its Morphometric Adaptations to Local Environments

Equus is a very sensitive genus which has expanded over a large area and lived in Europe despite the climatic instability of the Pleistocene. Its persistence and abundance are helpful in understanding and describing environmental and climatic regional parameters. In this study, we present the result of dental mesowear and microwear analysis and post-cranial skeleton biometry on Equus populations located in two regions in the South of France from ten sites, corresponding to twelve assemblages dated from MIS 12 to MIS 5. The areas refer to two major climatic zones: the oceanic or subcontinental climate for the South West of France, and the Mediterranean for the South East. The first objective of this study is to integrate and compare biometric data, dental wear, and other already-published environmental proxies. The goal is to discuss the validity of horse body shape adaptations on a small geographical scale. The second objective is to describe the impact of environmental features on the horse population through time in the two regions. We observe that the Equus diet was quite diverse, according to microwear analysis which shows adaptations according to seasonal variations. However, they remained mostly grazers over a long period of time. Estimated body mass of Equus in the localities studied here varies from a mean of 468 up to a mean of 570 kg, but these variations failed to be correlated with the diet, the climatic period, or the geographical position of the horse population, probably because of the sample size or the restricted time-span or geographical scale. However, the conformation of the metapodials and the width of the third phalanges may have been linked with environmental and behavioural parameters. The width of the third phalange may be correlated with the recurrence of the snow cover, while the robustness of the metapodial co-occurs with a humid climate. Also, diet may influence the conformation of the bones, since the tall and slender horses seem to be preferentially grazers all year long and seasonally browser horses are tall and robust. Seasonally mixed-feeder horses, all coming from the Mediterranean area, were found to be smaller, perhaps in relation to a less productive environment. The correspondence of the dietary and morphometrical data could suggest high pressure on the horse population, which caused rapid body adaptation. Thus, the combination of these different proxies allows us to suggest more accurate large mammal paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Community seed network in an era of climate change: dynamics of maize diversity in Yucatán, Mexico

Local seed systems remain the fundamental source of seeds for many crops in developing countries. Climate resilience for small holder farmers continues to depend largely on locally available seeds of traditional crop varieties. High rainfall events can have as significant an impact on crop production as increased temperatures and drought. This article analyzes the dynamics of maize diversity over 3 years in a farming community of Yucatán state, Mexico, where elevated levels of precipitation forced farmers in 2012 to reduce maize diversity in their plots. We study how farmers maintained their agroecosystem resilience through seed networks, examining the drivers influencing maize diversity and seed provisioning in the year preceding and following the 2012 climatic disturbance (2011–2013). We found that, under these challenging circumstances, farmers focused their efforts on their most reliable landraces, disregarding hybrids. We show that farmers were able to recover and restore the diversity usually cultivated in the community in the year following the critical climate event. The maize dynamic assessed in this study demonstrates the importance of community level conservation of crop diversity. Understanding farmer management strategies of agrobiodiversity, especially during a challenging climatic period, is necessary to promote a more tailored response to climate change in traditional farming systems.

CLIMATIC AND PHENOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF MODERN WARMING IN THE TERRITORY OF THE UDMURT REPUBLIC (A CASE STUDY OF IZHEVSK)

The article presents the results of the assessment of the dynamics of climatic and phenological indicators from the point of view of the processes of modern climate warming in the territory of Izhevsk (Udmurt Republic). It is established that the pronounced warming trend has been manifested since 1988, taking an unambiguous character since the 2000s. Relative to the base period of 1961-1990, the average annual air temperature in Izhevsk increased from 2.5 °C to 3.3 °C for the climatic period of 1991-2020. The main increase in temperatures can be traced in the cold season, in the winter months, at the beginning of the calendar spring and in the second half of autumn. According to the data presented, the duration of the periods with temperatures of 0, 5 and 10 °C changed upwards by 12, 12 and 6 days, respectively. The average long-term sum of active temperatures above 10 °C for the period 1991-2020 was 2160.9 °C, corresponding to the values of the indicator of the biological efficiency of the climate in the area of the ecological optimum of the functioning of zonal landscapes of the temperate zone. When comparing the current timing of the onset of phenological phenomena in Izhevsk with the period of the 50s-70s of the XX century, their advance by 4-10 days for the spring and summer seasons and a delay of 9-10 days in autumn-winter conditions was established. This affected the change in the length of the seasons with an increase in spring, summer and autumn by 1, 10 and 6 days, respectively, and a shortening of winter by 17 days.

THE RIVER’S SEDIMENT IN THE NORTH-WEST RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Large forested areas, small slopes of catchments, the presence of lakes and swamps, the karstification of the basin, and a large share of underground river feeding contribute to a decrease in the amount of sediment runoff in the rivers located in the North-West of Russia. The distribution of sediment runoff during the year is determined by the flow regime of the river. The maximum values of the monthly solid runoff modules of all the studied rivers are observed at high water in March – May, usually reaching the peak in April, which is typical for the north-western region. Moreover, the passage of the maximum for the northern rivers (Pasha, Oyat and Tikhvinka) mainly falls on April – May; for rivers flowing in the southern part of the region – on March – April. The minimum values of the annual runoff modulus in the low-water period are extremely insignificant, especially in winter, and for some years they are close to zero. This is quite understandable due to the significant contribution of soil erosion to the formation of solid runoff of watercourses, with the most intensive processes of soil erosion occurring during the period of active snowmelt and floods. A steady increase in air temperature and precipitation layers for the North-West of the Russian Federation in the last thirty years in comparison with the previous climatic period has led to an increase in the river runoff for the studied watercourses. At the same time, according to the observations for the selected climatic periods, there is a decrease in the annual solid runoff. This can be explained by socio-economic changes – a significant decrease in agricultural activity in the region. In addition, taking into account the increase in the water content of the rivers, the decrease in the solid runoff can be explained by the redistribution of the intra-annual course of meteorological values that occurred as a result of climatic changes.