An asymmetric variation of hot and cold SST extremes in the China Seas during the recent warming hiatus period

Extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) attract much attention in recent years. However, the detailed spatial and temporal pattern of the extreme SSTs in China Seas has not been well understood. Using the daily SST data set of OISST v2 from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 2013, and based on four extreme SST indices, the frequency and intensity of SST extremes in the China Seas were examined. The analysis showed that the annual mean SST exhibited cooling trend, on pace with a trend of − 0.34 °C/decade during 1998–2013, confirming the previous studies that China Seas also experienced the recent global warming hiatus. But during this recent global warming hiatus, there was a notable asymmetric pattern of greater cooling trends in cold SSTs as compared to the hot SSTs in this region. During 1998–2013, the cold days (CDs) frequency increased significantly by 13 days per decade and cold SST extremes which were below the 10th percentile of each year (SST10p) notably decreased by 0.4 °C per decade. Hot days (HD) and hot SST extremes which were above the 90th percentile of each year (SST90p) slowed down, but without any distinct tendency. Meanwhile, the rates of SST10p and CDs were highly heterogeneous in space. Cold extremes in the near-shore areas are much more sensitive to the global warming hiatus than these in the eastern of the Kuroshio Current. Importantly, hot extremes do not reveal any distinct cooling tendency during 1998–2013, there were more frequent hot days and more intense hot SSTs in this region comparing with 1982–1997. These hot extremes could push some marine organisms, fisheries and ecosystems beyond the limits of their resilience, with cascading impacts on economies and societies.

Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

Stable Isotope Evidence for Recent Global Warming Hiatus

<p>Global mean surface air temperature (SAT) has remained relative stagnant since the late 1990s, a phenomenon known as global warming hiatus. Despite widespread concern and discussion, there is still an open question about whether this hiatus exists, partly due to the biases in observations. The stable isotopic composition of precipitation in mid- and high-latitude continents closely tracks change of the air temperature, providing an alternative to evaluate global warming hiatus. Here we use the long-term precipitation δ<sup>18</sup>O records available to investigate changes in SAT over the period 1970–2016. The results reveal slight decline in δ<sup>18</sup>O anomaly from 1998 to 2012, with a slope of -0.0004‰ decade<sup>-1 </sup>which is significantly different from that of pre-1998 interval. This downward δ<sup>18</sup>O anomaly trend suggests a slight cooling for about -0.001°C decade<sup>-1</sup>, corroborating the recent hiatus in global warming. Our work provides new evidence for recent global warming hiatus and highlights the potential of utilizing precipitation isotope for tracking climate changes.</p>

Reconstructed 3-D Ocean Temperature Derived from Remotely Sensed Sea Surface Measurements for Mixed Layer Depth Analysis

The mixed layer depth (MLD) is generally estimated using in situ or model data. However, MLD analyses have limitations due to the sparse resolution of the observed data. Therefore, this study reconstructs three-dimensional (3D) ocean thermal structures using only satellite sea surface measurements for a higher spatial and longer temporal resolution than that of Argo and diagnoses the decadal variation of global MLD variability. To simulate the ocean thermal structures, the relationship between the ocean subsurface temperature and the sea surface fields was computed based on gridded Argo data. Based on this relationship, high spatial resolution and extended periods of satellite-derived altimeter, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress data were used to estimate the 3D ocean thermal structures with 0.25° spatial resolution and 26 standard depth levels (5–2000 m) for 24 years (1993–2016). Then, the MLD was calculated using a temperature threshold method (∆T = 0.2 °C) and correlated reasonably well (>0.9) with other MLD datasets. The extended 24-year data enabled us to analyze the decadal variability of the MLD. The global linear trend of the 24-year MLD is −0.110 m yr−1; however, from 1998 to 2012, the linear trend is −0.003 m yr−1 which is an order of magnitude smaller than that of other periods and corresponds to a global warming hiatus period. Via comparisons between the trends of the SST anomalies and the MLD anomalies, we tracked how the MLD trend changes in response to the global warming hiatus.